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Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby VaderFin » Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:59 pm

Skibrett....please post who these other 9 WRs are that you have ranked ahead of Wayne if he's barely Top 10 and I'd love to see the 14 guys ahead of him if he is Top 15.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby Bobbleheadrusty » Tue Jul 22, 2008 2:27 pm

JasonSeahorn wrote:
SLAMLLC wrote:
Gonzo is the guy I want to own. I really see no reason why Gonzo and Wayne don't end the season with almost identical numbers.


If you are picking a WR and 4 have gone off the board and you have the option of Gonzo and Wayne you are taking Gonzo? Or were you saying that you think both should be availible at WR15? like in your first post? If they are both there at WR 15 you take Gonzo? I have come up with some pretty crazy ideas on here before, but man that is pretty out there.



I think it was easily implied that he'd rather have Gonzo instead of Wayne based on where Wayne is being drafted and where Gonzo is being drafted, I.E. he'd rather take one of the other stud WRs instead of Wayne if given a chance, and he'd take Gonzo instead of other WRs ranked near Gonzo.

Wayne IMO won't exceed the 1500 yards he got last year. If Harrison doesn't play much, Wayne could approach 1500 (I'm thinking 1300-1400 is more likely). If Harrison does play the full season, I don't see Wayne getting more than 1300 yards. For TDs, I can see 10 or 11 if there is no Harrison, but if Harrison plays the full season, I'm expecting 7-9 TDs for Wayne.

Peyton loves Harrison and his dual tight ends when they are in the red zone, and lately has been looking to the running backs as well. Brady has always been the one associated with spreading the ball, but Peyton does it just as much, if not even more so. It's just that Peyton's passing skills are so absurd he can make anyone look like a star.

If Harrison plays the whole season, I'm expecting him and Wayne to each approach 9 TDs (maybe one of them breaks 10), with Gonzo getting 5-6 TDs and the rest of the TDs being split up by the tight ends and running backs. If Harrison doesn't play, I see Wayne getting 10-11 as I stated before, with Gonzo getting 8 TDs, but I think the tight ends and the running backs will see the biggest spike in TDs, especially in the red zone.



So in your forecast, in which you disparage Wayne, you think he will ONLY get 1300 yards and 9 TDs? I don't know about your format, but that would have ranked him as the #6 WR last year in mine. And seeing how he has topped those numbers two years in a row I can't see him falling below that barring injury.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby bungle613 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 2:47 pm

skibrett15 wrote:I think you guys have this "chemistry" confused with "necessity"
Manning wouldn't be throwing these ropes into tight coverage if he has other options on the field. With all 3, or at least wayne, clark and gonzalez Manning is gonna spread it around like he did with Harrison, Stokley and Wayne. I think Clark's numbers are definitely dropping, at least in TDs.

Reggie wayne is gonna get a lot more coverage attention due to great success last year, especially within the division. Gonzo is the guy I want to own. I really see no reason why Gonzo and Wayne don't end the season with almost identical numbers. They're the two top wideouts barring a harrison renaissance for a QB who will not force it to anyone. This isn't jake delhomme and steve smith. Manning will get it to gonzalez as much as wayne because he can keep the defense honest that way.

Look at DD and greg jennings. Equal production because they help each other. I think it's a similar situation except we aren't going to see that strange disparity in TDs that DD/Jennings had.


Manning has always had his favourite and that was/is Marvin. Gonzo, not Wayne needs Marvin to be out for the season to produce fantasy numbers.

The only season Manning ever made things equal between his top 3 was when he threw 49 td's. Every otehr year the number 3 has been fairly irrelevant.

The DD and Jenning comparison isn't exactly correct either. Jenning rookie season Driver outpointed him by 80 or so points. Last year, Jennings outpointed him by 50.

Gonzo will be good and a great producer in FF terms but Wayne is #1.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby skibrett15 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:42 pm

bungle613 wrote:
skibrett15 wrote:I think you guys have this "chemistry" confused with "necessity"
Manning wouldn't be throwing these ropes into tight coverage if he has other options on the field. With all 3, or at least wayne, clark and gonzalez Manning is gonna spread it around like he did with Harrison, Stokley and Wayne. I think Clark's numbers are definitely dropping, at least in TDs.

Reggie wayne is gonna get a lot more coverage attention due to great success last year, especially within the division. Gonzo is the guy I want to own. I really see no reason why Gonzo and Wayne don't end the season with almost identical numbers. They're the two top wideouts barring a harrison renaissance for a QB who will not force it to anyone. This isn't jake delhomme and steve smith. Manning will get it to gonzalez as much as wayne because he can keep the defense honest that way.

Look at DD and greg jennings. Equal production because they help each other. I think it's a similar situation except we aren't going to see that strange disparity in TDs that DD/Jennings had.


Manning has always had his favourite and that was/is Marvin. Gonzo, not Wayne needs Marvin to be out for the season to produce fantasy numbers.

The only season Manning ever made things equal between his top 3 was when he threw 49 td's. Every otehr year the number 3 has been fairly irrelevant.

The DD and Jenning comparison isn't exactly correct either. Jenning rookie season Driver outpointed him by 80 or so points. Last year, Jennings outpointed him by 50.

Gonzo will be good and a great producer in FF terms but Wayne is #1.

Randy Moss, TO, Andre Johnson, Chad Johnson, TJ Housh, Brandon Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Larry Fitz, plus I'm expecting some surprises like maybe santonio holmes, Greg jennings, chris chambers, Anthony Gonzalez (he has a qb!!!) maybe santana moss to make a leap. Maybe Wayne is 8, maybe he's 14, but he's not 2 and he's not 3. And if you accept that he's not 2/3 and you are drafting him because he seems safe, then I think that's value that I'm not willing to risk. I'll take Colston in the next round thank you very much.

I really don't think Wayne is gonna have a poor season. I just think it's gonna be more of a season like '05. Right now as the consensus 2/3 guy, you are expecting at least a repeat performance from last year. You have to be if you are drafting him that high. Right now almost every factor is against a repeat performance. Marvin is coming back, Gonzo is healthy and coming off a strong second half, Clark is healthy. Wayne saw 156 targets last season. Why do you think he is gonna see that many this year. He just won't have the opportunity to make enough yards/TDs. His numbers were inflated due to injuries to teamates. Unless you think there will be more injuries, or that peyton is gonna inflate his stats by looking to him more even when he has either marvin or Gonzo then that is your valid argument, but I would caution you against that. Otherwise there is no chance he is touching his numbers from this year.

Now take a look at Gonzo who took 51 targets and turned it into 576 yards and tell me he will not be a big factor this season. That is unparalleled production in the NFL. No one did more on an opportunity normalized basis who got more than 50 looks last season.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby DemonDeacon » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:38 pm

I didnt read everything but i think ive got the just of it. Wayne imo is top 5. duh.

Ive got Moss/To/AJ IF he stays healthy and i have Wayne tied with Edwards, which may or may not be there because of my extreme Michigan bias... ;-D

But im callin a 1200yd 8-10TD year for Wayne. Which is nothing short of what you'd expect of a #1 WR. But im also predicting 950-1100yd 5-8td year for Gonzo. Yes im very high on him and expect him to fall to the late rounds of most drafts. But the difference is Gonzo NEEDS Marvin to be out. While Wayne is... well... he's Reggie Wayne! Which is to say i think his stats will change very little regaurdless of Marvin being back or not. The Harrison era is... OVA!!!!
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby SLAMLLC » Tue Jul 22, 2008 6:40 pm

I guess we will hand Payton Manning the league MVP right now. From the above posts we must be looking at 1300 yards for Wayne, "Gonzo will match Wayne" 1300. Harrison lets conservatively guess 800. Clark 500. Addai 500? Add in a few others and we are looking at Manning with 4500+ yards passing. Nice.

I can't believe we have guys looking at Gonzo being Indy's most productive receiver for 2008.

Are we talking about the same receiver who has only caught 41 total passes in the NFL? Only had 4 games in his NFL carrer with over 3 catches? He is going to post equivalent or better Reggie Wayne numbers in 2008? Wayne will be in the 14th WR area? That would put Gonzo in the top 10 maybe? I think I have read enough of this thread.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby petedog9 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 6:50 pm

My take: As long as Marvin is on the field, he will get looks by Peyton. They are one of the most dynamic duos in history. Wayne has become the #1 threat and will be the main threat that defenses will cover. Gonzo is a 3rd wr and the 4th option after Wayne / Marv/ and then Clark. He is a value pick for where he is being taken and has upside if Marvin cannot return to the field. But to say that Gonzo will come anywhere close to Wayne or even Marvin (if healthy) is absurd....

Just as absurd is Wayne out of the top 5....
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby LS2throwed » Tue Jul 22, 2008 6:52 pm

SLAMLLC wrote:I can't believe we have guys looking at Gonzo being Indy's most productive receiver for 2008.


I don't believe I have seen one person claim that, but Gonzo is due for a huge sophmore year in the same sense Holmes was last year, and when your in a great offense with a QB who can get you the ball, that equals success...He's not outscoring Wayne at all, but 1000 yds is reachable certainly, along with being in the ballpark of 8 TD's, he's perfect for that offense.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby SLAMLLC » Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:01 pm

LS2throwed wrote:
SLAMLLC wrote:I can't believe we have guys looking at Gonzo being Indy's most productive receiver for 2008.


I don't believe I have seen one person claim that, but Gonzo is due for a huge sophmore year in the same sense Holmes was last year, and when your in a great offense with a QB who can get you the ball, that equals success...He's not outscoring Wayne at all, but 1000 yds is reachable certainly, along with being in the ballpark of 8 TD's, he's perfect for that offense.


I am not so sure. I read Gonzo and Wayne with equal numbers and would rather have Gonzo. I think it is safe to assume they want the more productive receiver so they are placing their bets on Gonzo outscoring Wayne.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby Timbathia » Wed Jul 23, 2008 12:19 am

Harrison will be 36 when the season starts, he has bad knees, and hasnt had a 1200+ yd season since 2003. Sure he had 12 tds in 2006, but I will guarantee you that now 2 years on (with knee problems), he will not be able to find room in the endzone as easily as he did back then. Sure he will run precise routes, and Manning will find him often as a result, but with a slight decline in burst and speed that comes with age and injury, CBs will be able to make some of that up. I think Harrison is the 1000yd/8td ceiling guy if he plays 16 games in this offense. I also see him playing less snaps over these 16 games than he has in the past. With Gonzo showing ability last year, I say the Colts try and reduce Marvin's workload compared to 2006 and previous to try and keep him healthy.

No reason Wayne should have less than 1200/10 IMO.

Gonzo is too tough to predict as his numbers depend on Marvin's health too much.

11 tds is a lot for a TE, especially for one who is 6ft3in - expect opposition defenses to have a better plan to stop that happening.

Reggie should be taken somewhere between #3 and 6 IMO, and is the only one in the receiving/TE corp that you should be able to definitely rely on.
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