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ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby pvt1863 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 8:21 am

knapplc wrote:Oil is a finite resource. There's a long discussion with some good info regarding Peak Oil over on the Dark Side. The reality is that within this century oil will no longer be a viable resource for fuel. Scarcity will make it so cost-prohibitive that it simply won't work.

The real answer is electricity, and generating it most likely from a variety of sources including solar, wind, geothermal and nuclear sources. Instead of spending so much time on ANWR, OPEC, the Gulf of Mexico or anywhere else oil is or might be, we need to develop a motor that will propel cars and trucks down the road at comparable speeds and levels of performance to internal combustion.


Electric cars are not being held back by the lack of adequate motors. We have electric motors which rival internal combustion ones when it comes to performance. The primary problem with electric cars are the batteries. Batteries are expensive, dirty, heavy, provide limited range, and cannot be recharged quickly.

We also would have to figure out where the electricity will come from. Right now, more than half of our electricity comes from coal. From an environmental standpoint, burning coal to make electricity to run automobiles does not make much more sense than burning oil directly in the cars. The only real advantage that coal has is that we are nowhere near running out -- we have enough coal reserves within our own borders to meet our needs for centuries.

There is an economic problem with switching cars to electricity, too. Electricity prices are skyrocketing all over the country because our supply is not keeping up with demand. If we added transportation demands, the electricity sector would be overrun with demand. Switching cars to elecricity would increase electricity consumption by about 12%. Utilities are already predicting brownouts in the Northeast within the next five years due to lack of supply. Making cars run on electricity would make this problem worse, more widespread, and arrive sooner.

I say drill. Yes, getting oil from ANWR will take a few years, but that is always the case with any solution on that level of magnitude. People nowadays have a mindset where the expect instant gratification (we can't even wait until a football game is over to find out how our fantasy players did... we pay $10 for instant updates and then stare at the screen as the game goes on :-b). But no solution, from domestic oil production to electric cars to mass transportation, will impact our daily lives for years. If we don't start now, then we'll just find ourselves 5 years down the road asking why we didn't start 5 years ago.
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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby knapplc » Sun Jul 27, 2008 9:19 am

Good post. ^^^
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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:12 am

I say drill. The environmentalists don't understand that where the drilling will take place is in an area where noone ever goes to.

I sell natural gas for a living to commercial users. My company produces natural gas in the Sacramento Basin and Northern Montana. We know where there is a ton of natural gas and even own the land but we can't drill it because it is on the backside of the Rockies and the environmentalists get in the way.

We are either killing carribu with the Alaskan pipeline, migratory birds with the wind turbines, worried about Chernobyl through Nuke power, or killing the fish with tidal power. Eventually we have to make a choice on whats more important. Humans or Animals!

Just 2 weeks ago natural gas was at an absolute record. Luckily it came off big in the past few weeks http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_NG.Q08&v=d12

These smaller restaurants within Pacific Gas and Electric have no idea that their bill this month and next month is nearly DOUBLE what they paid last year. Not to mention every single cost they have is up. Crude oil and supply constraints are what drove the price for natural gas up. Now our domestic producers are drilling like crazy ($14.00 gas vs $6-$7 last year) and building up storage much better than the EIA (govenrment) thinks we are capable of, Crude has backed off, minimal hot weather across the nation limiting electricity production needed from nat gas, and no hurricanes damaging production in the gulf. This has brought prices back down to a respectable level. But it still won't hit the pocketbooks for several months.

PG&E has asked and been approved for a 6.5% increase in electricity because CA generates over 40% of its electricity from Nat Gas Turbines. Word is they are asking for another 20% as we speak that may or may not get approved by the CPUC.

Bottom line is if energy (crude/heating oil/propane, nat gas, elec) is going up so is nearly every other cost within a business is to. This creates a landslide effect. Costs go up = inflated prices = mimimum wage going up = repeat.

Drill now in areas that are not too populated and don't look back. Environmentalists are costing us more.
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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby scottaa1 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:30 am

Cowboys 4 life wrote:Drill now in areas that are not too populated and don't look back. Environmentalists are costing us more.


we need a way to turn environmentalists into energy...

It used to be more expensive to take the bus from my 'hood to downtown and back each day ($2 each way so $4 total for mass transit per day). Now, the bus costs half as much as the two gallons of gas I burn each day.

The impact to the economy that all of these rising fuel prices is having and will continue to have makes me pretty nervous. As Cowboy's said, it'll have a steamroll effect with far-reaching ramifications. Add in the mortgage/bank fiasco that's going on... I"m fearful that a repression will turn into a depression.
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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby joelamosobadiah » Sun Jul 27, 2008 12:51 pm

Great posts in this thread. First off, we need to begin to drill in ANWR. We wish we had now, so we need ot get on the ball and prepare for the fact that we will need oil for a long time to come. Even if there was a huge breakthrough in batteries tomorrow, it would take several years for mass production/mass market availability. Then give another good 3 for them to become owned by even a decent number of people. By the time you reach market saturation and mass ownership and use, you are looking at long enough for us to be in serious trouble in the meantime with the oil situation. Both need to be accomplished and are very important.
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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby Metroid » Sun Jul 27, 2008 5:12 pm

Just because no one goes there doesn't mean there isn't some sort of very fragile life there. ;-)
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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby moonhead » Sun Jul 27, 2008 7:59 pm

Metroid wrote:Just because no one goes there doesn't mean there isn't some sort of very fragile life there. ;-)

word. anything i say has most likely already been said. but if we wanted this to make an impact it should have been done at least 15 years ago. ANWR will not fix anything now, or even begin to help for at least a decade. that being said, they are going to have to run pipes. and that will go through some of that beautiful territory that you posted pics of nfl. i'm not a huge fan of this situation. i'm as guilty as the next person about relying on oil. however, i try to have as small a footprint as possible. i really only drive about 100 miles a week. maybe. that's probably stretching it. anyway, i don't think that drilling up there is a great idea. i have read multiple places that the price of gasoline is not due to your typical supply/demand curve. oil based products are, i think the correct economic term for it is, an inelastic commodity. now it's been quite some time since i've had any economics classes, but that means regardless of the prices the consumer will continue to pay for it. i'd prefer for us to stop giving tax breaks to these monstrosities of industry. we need to take that money and invest it in research, subsidize companies that are doing things that will benefit us now and in the future. not companies that are going to be facing the throes of death in 75 years. how come we are still relying on the internal combustion engine? it's like 200 year old technology. seems absurd.
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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby pvt1863 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 10:02 pm

moonhead wrote:
Metroid wrote:Just because no one goes there doesn't mean there isn't some sort of very fragile life there. ;-)

word. anything i say has most likely already been said. but if we wanted this to make an impact it should have been done at least 15 years ago. ANWR will not fix anything now, or even begin to help for at least a decade. that being said, they are going to have to run pipes. and that will go through some of that beautiful territory that you posted pics of nfl. i'm not a huge fan of this situation. i'm as guilty as the next person about relying on oil. however, i try to have as small a footprint as possible. i really only drive about 100 miles a week. maybe. that's probably stretching it. anyway, i don't think that drilling up there is a great idea. i have read multiple places that the price of gasoline is not due to your typical supply/demand curve. oil based products are, i think the correct economic term for it is, an inelastic commodity. now it's been quite some time since i've had any economics classes, but that means regardless of the prices the consumer will continue to pay for it. i'd prefer for us to stop giving tax breaks to these monstrosities of industry. we need to take that money and invest it in research, subsidize companies that are doing things that will benefit us now and in the future. not companies that are going to be facing the throes of death in 75 years. how come we are still relying on the internal combustion engine? it's like 200 year old technology. seems absurd.


Gasoline is not entirely inelastic. People do alter their gasoline consumption in reaction to prices. People carpool, take public transportation, buy more fuel efficient vehicles, reschedule errands, and change vacation plans as gas prices rise. Also, even inelastic commodities follow the laws of supply and demand. They may not follow them in as pure a way as other commodities, but it happens. If you don't think that gasoline/oil follows the laws of supply and demand, then why are prices rising? If market forces don't matter, then why are futures traded on the open market?

Yes, a new pipeline will have to be run. But that seems like a minor fact. We already have a pipeline running across Alaska which has a minimal environmental impact, there seems to be no reason the same cannot be done again. All energy sources have an impact like that. Wind turbines have to be built on beautiful mountaintops; acres of trees have to be cleared, roads have to be cut, and high voltage power lines have to be laid. Solar plants have footprints too, often being built in desert areas which can be the most fragile ecosystems.

Ending subsidies for oil companies is a bad idea. While they have very large profits, those profits come from the enormous amount of business they do. Were it not for this volume of business, oil companies would be in deep trouble. Oil companies have smaller profit margins than many industries -- Coca Cola has a profit margin about three times as large as the average oil company -- and they pay more in taxes than they make in profits. Exxon Mobil, for example, posted a near-record $10.9 billion in profits in the first quarter of 2008, but paid $29.3 billion in taxes in the same period (source). The government is making almost three dollars for every dollar that Exxon makes in profit! If the tax breaks are removed, it will hurt the expansion of domestic production (many of those subsidies deal with exploration) and the increased cost will simply be passed on to the consumer at the pump.

And the fact that we are still using the internal combustion engine is a testament to that particular invention's greatness, not to our ineptitude. The internal combustion engine is inexpensive, low maintenance, powerful, capable of running in all typical weather conditions, and ready on demand. It uses a readily accessible fuel that is safe (for a fuel) and easy to store, and a tank of fuel -- which takes only minutes to fill -- can take a car hundreds of miles in a matter of hours. It truly is an amazing invention, which is the primary reason we are having a hard time replacing it.

Cowboys 4 life wrote:I sell natural gas for a living to commercial users. My company produces natural gas in the Sacramento Basin and Northern Montana. We know where there is a ton of natural gas and even own the land but we can't drill it because it is on the backside of the Rockies and the environmentalists get in the way.

...

These smaller restaurants within Pacific Gas and Electric have no idea that their bill this month and next month is nearly DOUBLE what they paid last year. Not to mention every single cost they have is up. Crude oil and supply constraints are what drove the price for natural gas up. Now our domestic producers are drilling like crazy ($14.00 gas vs $6-$7 last year) and building up storage much better than the EIA (govenrment) thinks we are capable of, Crude has backed off, minimal hot weather across the nation limiting electricity production needed from nat gas, and no hurricanes damaging production in the gulf. This has brought prices back down to a respectable level. But it still won't hit the pocketbooks for several months.

PG&E has asked and been approved for a 6.5% increase in electricity because CA generates over 40% of its electricity from Nat Gas Turbines. Word is they are asking for another 20% as we speak that may or may not get approved by the CPUC.


I work in the nuclear power industry. Twice a year, we have a meeting where the CEO talks to all the employees about the state of the company and the electricity industry in general. When we had one a month ago, I could not believe how expensive natural gas has gotten in the last year! The big problem is that almost all of the new power plants we have built in the US in the last decade have been natural gas. As a result, natural gas is becoming a baseload power source in some regions, particularly the west, even though its price volatility should have stopped utilities and governments from allowing that to happen.

It must be interesting times for you and your business.
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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby joelamosobadiah » Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:15 pm

pvt1863 wrote:
moonhead wrote:
Metroid wrote:Just because no one goes there doesn't mean there isn't some sort of very fragile life there. ;-)

word. anything i say has most likely already been said. but if we wanted this to make an impact it should have been done at least 15 years ago. ANWR will not fix anything now, or even begin to help for at least a decade. that being said, they are going to have to run pipes. and that will go through some of that beautiful territory that you posted pics of nfl. i'm not a huge fan of this situation. i'm as guilty as the next person about relying on oil. however, i try to have as small a footprint as possible. i really only drive about 100 miles a week. maybe. that's probably stretching it. anyway, i don't think that drilling up there is a great idea. i have read multiple places that the price of gasoline is not due to your typical supply/demand curve. oil based products are, i think the correct economic term for it is, an inelastic commodity. now it's been quite some time since i've had any economics classes, but that means regardless of the prices the consumer will continue to pay for it. i'd prefer for us to stop giving tax breaks to these monstrosities of industry. we need to take that money and invest it in research, subsidize companies that are doing things that will benefit us now and in the future. not companies that are going to be facing the throes of death in 75 years. how come we are still relying on the internal combustion engine? it's like 200 year old technology. seems absurd.


Gasoline is not entirely inelastic. People do alter their gasoline consumption in reaction to prices. People carpool, take public transportation, buy more fuel efficient vehicles, reschedule errands, and change vacation plans as gas prices rise. Also, even inelastic commodities follow the laws of supply and demand. They may not follow them in as pure a way as other commodities, but it happens. If you don't think that gasoline/oil follows the laws of supply and demand, then why are prices rising? If market forces don't matter, then why are futures traded on the open market?


He is right, it is an inelastic commodity. Now what you are saying is describing a perfectly inelastic commodity and you are right, it isn't perfectly inelastic.
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Re: ANWR... To drill or not to drill?

Postby moonhead » Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:31 am

pvt1863 wrote:
moonhead wrote:
Metroid wrote:Just because no one goes there doesn't mean there isn't some sort of very fragile life there. ;-)

word. anything i say has most likely already been said. but if we wanted this to make an impact it should have been done at least 15 years ago. ANWR will not fix anything now, or even begin to help for at least a decade. that being said, they are going to have to run pipes. and that will go through some of that beautiful territory that you posted pics of nfl. i'm not a huge fan of this situation. i'm as guilty as the next person about relying on oil. however, i try to have as small a footprint as possible. i really only drive about 100 miles a week. maybe. that's probably stretching it. anyway, i don't think that drilling up there is a great idea. i have read multiple places that the price of gasoline is not due to your typical supply/demand curve. oil based products are, i think the correct economic term for it is, an inelastic commodity. now it's been quite some time since i've had any economics classes, but that means regardless of the prices the consumer will continue to pay for it. i'd prefer for us to stop giving tax breaks to these monstrosities of industry. we need to take that money and invest it in research, subsidize companies that are doing things that will benefit us now and in the future. not companies that are going to be facing the throes of death in 75 years. how come we are still relying on the internal combustion engine? it's like 200 year old technology. seems absurd.


Gasoline is not entirely inelastic. People do alter their gasoline consumption in reaction to prices. People carpool, take public transportation, buy more fuel efficient vehicles, reschedule errands, and change vacation plans as gas prices rise. Also, even inelastic commodities follow the laws of supply and demand. They may not follow them in as pure a way as other commodities, but it happens. If you don't think that gasoline/oil follows the laws of supply and demand, then why are prices rising? If market forces don't matter, then why are futures traded on the open market?

Yes, a new pipeline will have to be run. But that seems like a minor fact. We already have a pipeline running across Alaska which has a minimal environmental impact, there seems to be no reason the same cannot be done again. All energy sources have an impact like that. Wind turbines have to be built on beautiful mountaintops; acres of trees have to be cleared, roads have to be cut, and high voltage power lines have to be laid. Solar plants have footprints too, often being built in desert areas which can be the most fragile ecosystems.

Ending subsidies for oil companies is a bad idea. While they have very large profits, those profits come from the enormous amount of business they do. Were it not for this volume of business, oil companies would be in deep trouble. Oil companies have smaller profit margins than many industries -- Coca Cola has a profit margin about three times as large as the average oil company -- and they pay more in taxes than they make in profits. Exxon Mobil, for example, posted a near-record $10.9 billion in profits in the first quarter of 2008, but paid $29.3 billion in taxes in the same period (source). The government is making almost three dollars for every dollar that Exxon makes in profit! If the tax breaks are removed, it will hurt the expansion of domestic production (many of those subsidies deal with exploration) and the increased cost will simply be passed on to the consumer at the pump.

And the fact that we are still using the internal combustion engine is a testament to that particular invention's greatness, not to our ineptitude. The internal combustion engine is inexpensive, low maintenance, powerful, capable of running in all typical weather conditions, and ready on demand. It uses a readily accessible fuel that is safe (for a fuel) and easy to store, and a tank of fuel -- which takes only minutes to fill -- can take a car hundreds of miles in a matter of hours. It truly is an amazing invention, which is the primary reason we are having a hard time replacing it.

Cowboys 4 life wrote:I sell natural gas for a living to commercial users. My company produces natural gas in the Sacramento Basin and Northern Montana. We know where there is a ton of natural gas and even own the land but we can't drill it because it is on the backside of the Rockies and the environmentalists get in the way.

...

These smaller restaurants within Pacific Gas and Electric have no idea that their bill this month and next month is nearly DOUBLE what they paid last year. Not to mention every single cost they have is up. Crude oil and supply constraints are what drove the price for natural gas up. Now our domestic producers are drilling like crazy ($14.00 gas vs $6-$7 last year) and building up storage much better than the EIA (govenrment) thinks we are capable of, Crude has backed off, minimal hot weather across the nation limiting electricity production needed from nat gas, and no hurricanes damaging production in the gulf. This has brought prices back down to a respectable level. But it still won't hit the pocketbooks for several months.

PG&E has asked and been approved for a 6.5% increase in electricity because CA generates over 40% of its electricity from Nat Gas Turbines. Word is they are asking for another 20% as we speak that may or may not get approved by the CPUC.


I work in the nuclear power industry. Twice a year, we have a meeting where the CEO talks to all the employees about the state of the company and the electricity industry in general. When we had one a month ago, I could not believe how expensive natural gas has gotten in the last year! The big problem is that almost all of the new power plants we have built in the US in the last decade have been natural gas. As a result, natural gas is becoming a baseload power source in some regions, particularly the west, even though its price volatility should have stopped utilities and governments from allowing that to happen.

It must be interesting times for you and your business.

:golfclap:

who is this guy, and why have i not seen posts from him before?
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