Azrael wrote:Alot of people like to draft him as a RB2 but he's a very dangerous play IMO. His true potential is tied to Taylor getting hurt. With the situation currently I would not expect much more out of him than last year. 1,200 yds and 9 TDs is not a bad total for a RB2 but because he touches the ball less than 15 times a game you end up with spotty results all year long 5 points here and there and 20 points here and there. I'd rather have a guy who puts in his work week in and week out like McGahee. Not as explosive and not as much potential but the dude contributes to your fantasy team. McGahee reeled off 12 straight weeks of double digit fantasy points last year before having a couple duds late.
Don't expect much more yardage out of MJD. He just doesn't touch the ball enough. Don't be one of those guys who think that MJD is going to "take over". Jax isn't dumb they are going to get as much mileage out of Taylor as they can before having to use MJD more than they do. The recipe works so they aren't going to change it. And if for some reason he doesn't push double digit TDs then you've got yourself a 2nd round dud. On the other hand if Taylor gets seriously hurt at some point then you've got yourself a steal.
I'm guessing you meant 1200 total yds, similar to last year. If you think he has any increase at all in that production, such as them splitting carries more evenly (Taylor had 223 carries last year, MJD 167), then he is simply a first round pick. If you think he takes over, you arguably have a top 5 back. His TD total will not decline - he led the league in short yardage carries last year with 35. Even though his conversion percentage wasn't terribly impressive, it is obvious Jax trusts him with those carries.
I personally have him as a mid-first rounder along with all the other guys in that same category - Addai, Barber, Portis - I'll wait to see how those guys juggle into my draft board, but I see them all pretty equal. All with good upside but some worry that they could easily have a mediocre fantasy season.
I don't see how anyone could predict his numbers declining, and he was already one of the best RB2 to be had. He had double-digit carries in all but 3 games he played last year, and his receiving yardage more than made up for that. This is an offense that will rush for over 2300 yds - MJD will get his plus his receiving yardage. My main concern isn't his offensive production - it is him getting hurt on special teams.