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earnest graham will be a total bust

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earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby sublimeandy » Sun Jul 27, 2008 9:45 pm

flashy title, i'm not sure that i neccesarily believe that. regardless, i have zero faith in graham. it seems that w/ all the other rb's there and gruden's wishy washy attitude towards graham that he is destined to be a complete bust. however he goes in mocks as a borderline rb2/3. does anyone really have that much faith in him? all that being said, i think that TB should feed him the ball 25 times again. he showed last year that he can produce. it just doesn't seem like gruden trusts him. you know dunn is going to be getting involved and what about the other rb's? discuss.
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Re: earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby Azrael » Sun Jul 27, 2008 9:58 pm

He seems to be the most likely candidate to go from fantasy hero to disappointment.
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Re: earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby killiansjmd » Sun Jul 27, 2008 10:27 pm

I've been avoiding him as well in most of my drafts because I also think he will disappoint this year. I think the addition of Dunn to the team will definetly effect his carries in a negative way.
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Re: earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby dgan » Sun Jul 27, 2008 10:39 pm

I don't think people are expecting him to be the savior of their fantasy teams. Look at who else there is to choose from 20+ RBs into the draft: Turner, Forte, Ronnie Brown...do you have that much more confidence in any of them than you do in Graham? I agree if someone has him ranked up with Thomas Jones and Brandon Jacobs - that's taking a bit of a gamble. But if I'm choosing from the last of the starting RBs, Graham is not a bad choice.

That's why you take a couple of those RBs that make you nervous...hopefully, only one of them will let you down.
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Re: earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby biju » Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:58 am

I'm a little at odds here with what I'm thinking.

First off, I'm in the camp that signing Warrick Dunn wasn't to steal a bunch of carries away from Graham, but rather to have a solid fallback plan in case Graham fails to work this year. Furthermore, even if Dunn were to grab carries from Graham, they aren't going to be at the goal line where Graham excelled last year.

But there is another problem: Graham will NOT be as good this year as he was last year. In 2006 the Bucs finished last in their division which meant the schedule they received was easier (supposedly at least) than the others within their division. On top of that, but two division rivals crumbled between 2006 and 2007 giving them an easier schedule than expected.

This will likely not be the case in 2008.

The level of defense on the teams they play this year will be higher and I don't know if Graham will get that 4.0 yards a carry he did last year, which is basically the borderline already. I dip will allow others to get more touches.

I guess what I'm thinking is that Graham could be skating on thin ice somewhere around the middle of the season. If he does manage to be strong during the first half however, he's not going to lose the job anytime soon. I think he's a decent gamble in redrafts but personally I don't like the looks of this for dynasties where he's going a little early.
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Re: earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby LS2throwed » Mon Jul 28, 2008 1:13 am

Graham is going to have a very strong year, I don't really buy the argument Dunn can make him go from finishing as a top 10 back last year to a dud, I guess everyone has forgotten how old Dunn looked last year, so his best days are behind him, he is far from a guy to worry about taking production away...Graham can catch out of the backfield, will garner all of his goal line carries, Garcia is a game manager at this point so the emphasis will be running the ball, and he should see his carries over 20 at least with some receptions thrown in.


Fact is he is being undervalued, he is going late 3rd rd in drafts, after guys like Maroney who I am pretty positive Graham will outscore...I'm usually not the one to jump on the one year hype trains because I love consistency, but people are really sleeping on this guy, watch some film of him, look at the stats, he put up some incredible numbers the 2nd half of the season and I expect his role to be just as large.
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Re: earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby moochman » Mon Jul 28, 2008 10:07 am

LS2throwed wrote:Graham is going to have a very strong year, I don't really buy the argument Dunn can make him go from finishing as a top 10 back last year to a dud, I guess everyone has forgotten how old Dunn looked last year, so his best days are behind him, he is far from a guy to worry about taking production away...Graham can catch out of the backfield, will garner all of his goal line carries, Garcia is a game manager at this point so the emphasis will be running the ball, and he should see his carries over 20 at least with some receptions thrown in.


Fact is he is being undervalued, he is going late 3rd rd in drafts, after guys like Maroney who I am pretty positive Graham will outscore...I'm usually not the one to jump on the one year hype trains because I love consistency, but people are really sleeping on this guy, watch some film of him, look at the stats, he put up some incredible numbers the 2nd half of the season and I expect his role to be just as large.


I lean more toward your outlook, throwed. Graham will be a disappointment only if you have high expectations for him. If you have him slotted for a 3-4 rnd pick I feel he should give good value. Ernest will earn the money shot-redzone work, so though his yardage may take a hit, he will still have good TD numbers.
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Re: earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby onnestabe » Mon Jul 28, 2008 11:12 am

I drafted him in one league as my 3rd RB (only start 2). I wasn't real enthused about the pick at the time, but there wasn't anyone else appropriate at that point in the draft.

I certainly don't think he's going to be a top 10 RB this year or anything, but I didn't see anything happening this offseason that really worries me. Dunn was brought in for depth/change of pace duties. Caddy might be coming back, but I don't see him making it through a whole season if he becomes "the guy." Best case scenario in my mind is that he manages to duplicate last year's numbers, but I don't think he needs to do that in order to justify the pick. He can still fall short of those numbers and be a good pick for me.
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Re: earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby biju » Mon Jul 28, 2008 11:20 am

onnestabe wrote:I drafted him in one league as my 3rd RB (only start 2). I wasn't real enthused about the pick at the time, but there wasn't anyone else appropriate at that point in the draft.

I certainly don't think he's going to be a top 10 RB this year or anything, but I didn't see anything happening this offseason that really worries me. Dunn was brought in for depth/change of pace duties. Caddy might be coming back, but I don't see him making it through a whole season if he becomes "the guy." Best case scenario in my mind is that he manages to duplicate last year's numbers, but I don't think he needs to do that in order to justify the pick. He can still fall short of those numbers and be a good pick for me.


I think all of those positives about Caddy for this year were a smoke screen from the cheap-o's down in Tampa who were trying to lower the contract Graham signed. It worked, and Caddy will soon be on the PUP, then IR this year.
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Re: earnest graham will be a total bust

Postby Dan Lambskin » Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:07 pm

i plan to avoid him like the plague...i dont think i'd even consider drafting him until the 5th round...if he's still there and i need a 3rd RB, i might consider it
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