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Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby mikus » Sat Aug 02, 2008 5:30 pm

He should have never left Green Bay.
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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby Free Bagel » Sat Aug 02, 2008 5:32 pm

Kilroy wrote:Bad knee, bad team, bad camp (so far anyway), ready to quit....where exactly is the upside?


Funny, sounds like the exact same argument people were using against Clinton Portis last year (minus 'ready to quit', but subbing in 'potential to only get half the carries' instead).

The guy had a good season the year after he tore his ACL, so it's not like he's never produced on a bum knee if it really even is all that bad (if we believed every report out of training camp about knees Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook would have sat out the last 2 years). Bad camp is meaningless, otherwise Jamal Robertson and Musa Smith would be the top two picks in fantasy drafts right now. So he thought about retirement, but he didn't retire, so who cares? Brett Favre thought about retirement heading into last year, as did Jason Taylor. They certainly ended up doing perfectly fine, because when you step out onto the field that all goes away. It's just words.

Yeah, he's on a bad team, but he's a top 10 talent as far as NFL WRs go. That's where the upside is, and it's certainly more than you can say for the other guys being drafted at that point.

Just because the Raiders killed off a great WR a couple years ago doesn't mean they're going to do it to every good WR that ever plays for the Raiders again. Yeah, there are a lot of similarities to the Randy Moss situation. Big deal, it's the 10th-12th round. If it happens again, no big deal (it only burned with Moss because he was a first round pick) and you're still probably no worse off than if you had taken any of those other late round WRs. But if he plays at even 75% of what he's ALREADY DONE several times in the past, then you come out waaaay ahead.
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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby Kilroy » Sat Aug 02, 2008 5:52 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Kilroy wrote:Bad knee, bad team, bad camp (so far anyway), ready to quit....where exactly is the upside?


Funny, sounds like the exact same argument people were using against Clinton Portis last year (minus 'ready to quit', but subbing in 'potential to only get half the carries' instead).

The guy had a good season the year after he tore his ACL, so it's not like he's never produced on a bum knee if it really even is all that bad (if we believed every report out of training camp about knees Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook would have sat out the last 2 years). Bad camp is meaningless, otherwise Jamal Robertson and Musa Smith would be the top two picks in fantasy drafts right now. So he thought about retirement, but he didn't retire, so who cares? Brett Favre thought about retirement heading into last year, as did Jason Taylor. They certainly ended up doing perfectly fine, because when you step out onto the field that all goes away. It's just words.

Yeah, he's on a bad team, but he's a top 10 talent as far as NFL WRs go. That's where the upside is, and it's certainly more than you can say for the other guys being drafted at that point.

Just because the Raiders killed off a great WR a couple years ago doesn't mean they're going to do it to every good WR that ever plays for the Raiders again. Yeah, there are a lot of similarities to the Randy Moss situation. Big deal, it's the 10th-12th round. If it happens again, no big deal (it only burned with Moss because he was a first round pick) and you're still probably no worse off than if you had taken any of those other late round WRs. But if he plays at even 75% of what he's ALREADY DONE several times in the past, then you come out waaaay ahead.


Top 10 Talent? Once upon a time, maybe. Now? I gotta disagree with you there.

Walker went at 7.05 of the "QB First" League (I'm just using that as an example because we're both in it), but you know that since you drafted him (before the likes of Kevin Curtis, Bobby Engram, Chris Chambers, etc.). Had he gone at say 10.05 he'd have gone before Drew Bennett and Bryant Johnson, who have at least as much (if not more) "upside" than Walker, especially in light of his being apparently being willing to hand 11 Million Dollars back to the only person crazy enough to give it to him in the first place. And it's not like he quit in March and then got "the itch" once camp rolled around (ala Favre)...he's in camp after signing that ridiculous deal (and getting the crap kicked outta him in Vegas, which is another mess altogether).

I agree with you, having a Double-Digit Pick blow up in your face is no huge loss, but from what I've seen of drafts there's better risks to take in the 10th than Javon, so unless he falls way down the board I just don't see taking part in that crapshoot.
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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby LS2throwed » Sat Aug 02, 2008 7:17 pm

Free Bagel wrote:At this point the guy is going in the 10th round and beyond. How many players with that much talent/upside are you going to find down there?

I mean, would people really rather have Brandon Stokely, Justin Gage, and Kevin Walter over a guy like Javon Walker?



Actually in our draft there was a long list of WR's available at the point Walker was taken that were better choices, and they were alot better then Stokely, Gage, or Walters...


Kevin Curtis
Bobby Engram
Chris Chambers
Jerry Porter
Anthony Gonzalez
Vincent Jackson
Bernard Berrian
Reggie Williams
Derrick Mason
Sidney Rice
Nate Burleson
DJ Hackett
Donte Stallworth
Patrick Crayton
Reggie Brown


All those guys were taken after, I would of taken every single one before Walker...Yes he has 1300/9 potential when healthy, but who honestly expected this guy to be healthy? He couldn't come back last year after 2 games, and never was healthy enough to play again, then he goes somewhere that has shown to be a career killer, horrible O-line, young QB, its just a terrible situation packed on top of the fact that he has bad knees, and immediately after the club incident...So it's not like he was around so long that scrubs were available, alot of these guys would probably outscore him as it is, let alone they are in better situations and perfectly healthy...Give me Reggie Brown 3-4 rounds later every draft every time, drafting Walker is like wasting a draft pick and I'm not a big proponent of that.


He had enough question marks surrounding him, and he was being drafted way too early as it is, this retirement thing should compound all of that, I'm shocked people are still over drafting him off of what he has done a year and 2 years ago..The list of reasons to not draft him is a mile long, alot longer then Portis(whose injury concerns were not as nearly serious as Walker)...He tried to come back at the end of last season and he wasn't good to go, he has been out of shape at camp, slow, sluggish, I really don't see any reason to draft this guy other then the fact that he had a good season a few years ago...I can understand if he is drafted towards the end of a draft, but in the '1st rd qb challendge' he was drafted way too early IMHO, all of those guys listed can produce 1000 yds and around 5 TD's, I would rather take the guy I know will be healthy and be around for my team, I'm not reaching for a former elite WR with chronic knee problems.
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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby Free Bagel » Sat Aug 02, 2008 10:17 pm

LS2throwed wrote:All those guys were taken after


Well, I meant after this retirement news, hence the "at this point" part. In FFCalculator mocks he's around in the 10th no problem now.

LS2throwed wrote:Yes he has 1300/9 potential when healthy, but who honestly expected this guy to be healthy? He couldn't come back last year after 2 games, and never was healthy enough to play again


The training camp injury reports crap is just that...crap. All it does a lot of the time is make guys a better value on draft day. Guys like Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook the last few years, and guys like Andre Johnson and Javon Walker this year. I don't know what you mean by "he couldn't come back last year after two games". He came back in the first two games and played very well (after playing the entire season before), and then got hurt. Yeah, he wasn't ready when they tried to bring him in at the end of the year, but neither was Adrian Peterson. That was 8 months ago. 8 months.

LS2throwed wrote:Portis (whose injury concerns were not as nearly serious as Walker)


Hindsight is 20/20, or in your case apparently, 10/10. As early as a week prior to the start of the season people weren't even sure if Portis was going to play in 2007, and most people thought there was no chance he'd start week 1. Yet week 1 came along, and he ran for 100 yards and 1 TD as if his knees were as fresh as they were entering his freshman year of high school. If anything, I'd say last year's offseason reports about Portis were much worse than this offseason's reports about Javon. Walker's knee was limiting him to one practice a day instead of two. Portis' knee kept him out of practice altogether.

LS2throwed wrote:he has been out of shape at camp, slow, sluggish


Lendale White was the fattest, slowest, most out of shape player in the history of the NFL last offseason if we're to believe all these "camp reports" we hear.

Honestly, I don't know why people keep listening to this media bait. I am not even kidding when I say that I bet the tone of these reports have an inverse relation to a player's success during the following season. That is, whenever we hear how great someone is looking in camp, they almost always end up underperforming during the actual season.

Now, don't forget to pick up Brandon Jackson early on this year, I hear he looks like the best player to ever put on a Packer uniform in camp. I hope you were able to nab Vince Young early last year, because let's not forget he was making remarkable strides as a passer and in reading NFL defenses. I guess that's what lead to that masterful 9 TD, 17 INT performance during the actual season.

Kilroy wrote:especially in light of his being apparently being willing to hand 11 Million Dollars back to the only person crazy enough to give it to him in the first place. And it's not like he quit in March and then got "the itch" once camp rolled around (ala Favre)...he's in camp after signing that ridiculous deal


Who cares? He didn't retire, and he's playing now. That's all I need to know. Once he's out on the field playing, he's out on the field playing.

I can think of exactly one player ever that's actually gone out there and not tried because his heart wasn't in it, and we knew that that guy only tried when he wanted to ahead of time. 1 out of how many? Yeah, I'll take those odds that this news is pretty much irrelevant to fantasy football. When irrelevant news can drop a guy 3-4 rounds down in his ADP compared to where he used to be, that's a good thing for those that think it doesn't matter.

Didn't this same news come out about someone last year too? Who was that? I really can't remember, but I think I remember hearing about something like that.

EDIT: Ok, google saves the day. It was Michael Strahan, who last offseason sat out training camp while mulling retirement. Certainly worked out ok for him.
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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby dgan » Sat Aug 02, 2008 10:26 pm

Free Bagel wrote:EDIT: Ok, google saves the day. It was Michael Strahan, who last offseason sat out training camp while mulling retirement. Certainly worked out ok for him.


Strahan didn't contemplate retirement because he wasn't performing well in camp. Walker has not been pleased with his physical abilities and was retiring out of frustration. Completely different, although I will agree there wasn't a whole lot of upside to begin with, so this should be taken with a grain of salt.

Maybe he and Favre could hit a retirement village together. After all, it was Favre's great advice to play out his contract and THEN get a big payday - 2 severe knee injuries later...I'm sure Walker and Favre are good buds. :-b
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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby Kilroy » Sat Aug 02, 2008 10:43 pm

Free Bagel wrote:Well, I meant after this retirement news, hence the "at this point" part. In FFCalculator mocks he's around in the 10th no problem now.


And those mocks are about as indicative of actual draft positions as those training camp reports you love so much are of what's actually happening. I don't put much stock in either, but when a player walks into "the office" ready to hand back 11 Million Dollars and is talked outta it by the same kook who gave him the money to begin with that's a bit of a red flag with me. It says "I don't wanna play no more". What happens the next morning he wakes up and the knee's sore, or the first time he gets his bell rung? Talent or no if he don't wanna be on the field he won't be for long, and if I can spend that 10th rounder on a Johnson or Bennett (who, as I said before, have every bit as much "upside" as Walker right now if not more) then you sir are more than welcome to him.
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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby Free Bagel » Sun Aug 03, 2008 1:08 am

Kilroy wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Well, I meant after this retirement news, hence the "at this point" part. In FFCalculator mocks he's around in the 10th no problem now.


And those mocks are about as indicative of actual draft positions as those training camp reports you love so much are of what's actually happening.


Hehe, fair enough. Nonetheless, the consensus around here seems to be no different as far as what round he will/should end up in.

and if I can spend that 10th rounder on a Johnson or Bennett (who, as I said before, have every bit as much "upside" as Walker right now if not more) then you sir are more than welcome to him.


Well, you enjoy that upside. I feel confident enough to say that if a guy like Bryant Johnson goes for 1300/9 this year I'll throw $100 into the ocean. I would not make the same statement about Walker failing to meet that.
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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby My team is injured » Sun Aug 03, 2008 9:22 am

Azrael wrote:All I needed to know that it was the Raiders not Randy Moss that prohibited him from producing. So if Randy Moss can't make it out there why should I ever draft another receiver from Oakland until the situation changes.


The situation has changed. While Al Davis is still the owner, Art Shell and his absolutely putrid offensive scheme run by that dude he knew from back in the day who had been out of football for years (Tom Walsh, I think) is gone. And the personnel there including QB and some of the O-line is different as well, for better or worse.

FWIW, Moss also did "okay" the first of his 2 seasons in Oakland prior to Shell taking over and was moreso limited by a hamstring injury than the scheme. Though he obviously had a much lower production ceiling playing with the raiders personnel than the 2007 Patriots or the Vikings from past years. And if I remember correctly, in Moss's first year on the Raiders (2005), Kerry Collins was at least a top 10, if not top 5, fantasy QB until he lost his starting job in the 2nd half of the season, in large part due to Moss's presence and production.

Lastly, I think Moss is partially culpable for his lower production in Oakland, even aside from the hamstring injury, as he didn't seem to be as self-motivated to perform in Oakland as he was in NE. Conversely, a young WR hoping to prove himself may be as motivated in Oakland as anywhere in the league.

With all that being said, I'm not advocating taking Walker at a certain draft position (though I would take a flier on him at some point late enough in the draft). Just saying that the situation is different for Oakland now than when Randy was there though obviously still not a good one.
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Re: Another Reason Not to Draft Javon Walker

Postby Kilroy » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:44 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Kilroy wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Well, I meant after this retirement news, hence the "at this point" part. In FFCalculator mocks he's around in the 10th no problem now.


And those mocks are about as indicative of actual draft positions as those training camp reports you love so much are of what's actually happening.


Hehe, fair enough. Nonetheless, the consensus around here seems to be no different as far as what round he will/should end up in.

and if I can spend that 10th rounder on a Johnson or Bennett (who, as I said before, have every bit as much "upside" as Walker right now if not more) then you sir are more than welcome to him.


Well, you enjoy that upside. I feel confident enough to say that if a guy like Bryant Johnson goes for 1300/9 this year I'll throw $100 into the ocean. I would not make the same statement about Walker failing to meet that.


Javon Walker's gone for 1300/9 exactly once in six years (2004). He's not going to sniff that this year.
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