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a few comments/questions on upcoming fantasy season....

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a few comments/questions on upcoming fantasy season....

Postby NYMetsIn2k4 » Mon Aug 04, 2008 11:21 pm

Well im currently managing my fantasy baseball teams diligently, but i have begun to peak at fantasy football and ive noticed a few things that strike me as odd.

First, ive noticed some guys whos ADPs have dropped drastically from last season and im not completely sure why:

Marvin Harrison. did he suddenly get that old in one seasons time? I mean, he is still the number 1 wr in one of the top offenses in the league and he does still have Peyton Manning throwing to him. I could be wrong, but arent reports saying hes his usual fit n healthy self in training camp?

Reggie Bush. has he really proven to be no longer one of the most talented backs in the league? i mean, yes, he is soft inbetween the tackles, but im sure hes aware of this and has bulked/toughened up in the off season to try n run more inside. i dunno, i just know hes going about 2 or so rds later than he did last yr and i believe preseason reports are that hell be very involved in the offense this season and with deuce aging, is pierre thomas really that big of a threat?

Rudi Johnson. hes dropping terribly in drafts! havent the bengals coaching staff said they wanted to go more power running this season? he had one big injury last yr n it seems as now hes gone from being a super reliable rb1/1st rd back, to middle round rb3 and im not so sure why.

those are just the players off the top of my head thatve dropped very significantly in adp, but there are a few other things ive noticed aswell, such as rookie running backs who people project to take over the top spot, thus allowing previously high upside/stud backs to drop in drafts:

Well, he sorta fits into the cat above as well but... Fast Willie Parker. I guess not so fast willie nowadays would be more appropriate. is mendenhall really that much better than willie in steeltown? i mean, granted, willie did not reach the endzone very often (twice i believe) but najehs a big boy, so its understandable, but is mendenhall that much more of a bruiser than willie?

DeAngelo Williams. Jonathan Stewart is another big upside rookie thats cutting into DWills time. ive read a lot on these boards about this situation actually. The conclusion ive gotten is that DWill has the starting job for now, but has to work on his pass blocking and a few other things and that JStew will cut into his carries early n then eventually take the majority. I feel like Williams is a great runner n could seize the opportunity early n hold onto the job

Jerious Norwood. I know, i know, Michael the burner Turner isnt a rook but hes finally out of LTs shadow. hes a great runner with great vision and he can put down his head, but is he really a feature back? last time i checked, Norwood was a great sleeper last season and has sick speed and should Turner falter, couldnt Norwood be a huge upside guy according to his ADP?

Ronnie Brown. He actually doesnt fit into either of these categories, but his recovery is going well and before he was injured, he led the league in all purpose yds b4 his injury and was the centerpiece in that miami offense which should be improved a bit. i know rickys in town now, but if brown returns to old form, he could be a huge sleeper.

These are a few things that ive noticed so far that i find a bit odd. Again, i havent been paying too much attention to football yet, so Id definetely like some comments and clarification on some of these topics. All of these guys will be targeted on my draft radar as they should outperform their ADP, or at worst, one of these 'new' feature backs will lose their job, as they always do, and the latter drafted of the two will shine big time.
12 Team .5 PPR Money League
1st Place 8-4 (1456.70 Pts)

QB Schaub
WR RWayne
WR Driver
RB DWill
RB RGrant
TE VDavis
W/R Mendenhall
K Tynes
DEF WW
BENCH TJHoush,DMC,Winslow,DAvery,Arizonas D (for Playoffs)
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Re: a few comments/questions on upcoming fantasy season....

Postby steelerfan513 » Tue Aug 05, 2008 1:13 am

Marvin Harrison is definitely dropping too far. It's true he carries an injury risk he didn't have in the past, but before that he reeled off eight consecutive seasons of over 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns. If he doesn't get injured, I don't see why he can't return to his pre-2007 form again. But that injury risk is what's driving down his ADP. I think the risk of wasting a pick is worth the potential reward of getting a top five receiver in the fifth or sixth round, which is where Harrison has been going in many drafts.

Reggie Bush is a very talented running back. Unfortunately, he's never demonstrated the ability to be a team's featured running back, someone who can carry the ball 20 times every game. He's the type of guy that seems like he will always be in a timeshare with a bigger back like Deuce McAllister or Pierre Thomas.

Rudi could end up being a good pickup in leagues if he can bounce back from a poor season last year, but he has a lot of mileage on him, and there are a lot of running backs in Cincinnati that are talented enough to steal carries from him. Kenny Watson performed admirably last year in Rudi's absence, Chris Perry is flashing talent (then again, he does that every year until he lands on the IR), and DeDe Dorsey is an explosive player. The Bengals will likely take a lot of carries from Rudi in order to keep him healthy because he obviously can't handle being a 25 carry back for his career.

As a Steelers fan, I can tell you my worry with Parker's value isn't as much Mendenhall; I expect Parker to be used in the same role he was last year at least for the first half of the season. The problem is that the Steelers, like most teams do with their featured running backs, will always look for ways to limit his workload. That means he will not be in on third downs, and he likely won't get goal line carries either. Not only that, but the Steelers' offensive line has quickly transformed into one of the worst in the NFL and lost All-Pro left guard Alan Faneca to free agency this offseason. That is the main reason Parker saw his touchdown numbers drop, the reason the Steelers couldn't pound the ball into the endzone, and the reason Ben Roethlisberger threw a career high 32 TDs. Parker will be good for yardage, but touchdowns will end up being like last year: few and far between.

Williams is someone that could end up being a great pickup, but there are plenty of reasons to doubt him. He was never able to take the starting job from an unexciting DeShaun Foster, and the Panthers didn't exactly give him a vote of confidence when they drafted Jonathan Stewart in the first round. They may want to have Stewart split carries with Williams, or they may have given up on Williams already. It's tough to tell at this point. Stewart is definitely better built to be a featured back, and since neither guy has proven anything at this point, Stewart has more value for that reason.

Norwood could be a sneaky pickup, but I wouldn't trust him as anything more than a fourth running back. Turner will definitely get more touchdown opportunities, which is what gives him more value. Norwood is a very talented player that will certainly get a chance to shine, but he was a sleeper pick last year because he was behind an aging Warrick Dunn, whom many assumed he would be able to eclipse to become the starter. That likely will not happen with Turner.

Brown's injury history is a concern, and Ricky Williams, though not exactly the most stable individual, is a very talented football player that could end up stealing touches at the start. Still, Brown definitely has the potential to be a top ten fantasy running back, and his current ADP (from what I've seen, anywhere from early third to early fourth round) makes him a pretty good pick.

So of the guys you mentioned, I'd definitely target Harrison and Brown, and I'd try to get Norwood and Williams to a lesser extent. I wouldn't necessarily avoid the other players you mentioned, but they are being drafted lower for good reason IMO.
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Re: a few comments/questions on upcoming fantasy season....

Postby Humpback » Tue Aug 05, 2008 8:57 am

Very few players come without question marks, and the guys you've mentioned all have their share. I own Marvin, but his injuries (and to a lesser extent his legal issues) are certainly a concern. Sure, they're saying he looks healthy, but they said the same thing for weeks last year and he never came back until a limited effort in the playoffs. I'll take what they're saying with a grain of salt until we see him out there in a regular season game at least.

Drafting is all about risk/reward, that's why these guys are falling. They all have a good amount of upside, but they come with similar amounts of risk. They are the type of players that can win you a championship if you get them a little later in the draft and they return to form, but they can also crush your season if you reach for them and they don't pan out.
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Re: a few comments/questions on upcoming fantasy season....

Postby NYMetsIn2k4 » Wed Aug 06, 2008 9:38 am

i thank the both of you for your comments and detailed insight (steelerfan). with all of this said, i believe i will target marvin, brown and rudi. i feel all 3 could pay off big time n possibly net me a championship in some leagues. the thing about fantasy football that frustrates me, and also intrigues me is the minimal room for error during the draft and then the week to week decisions that can make or break a championship team from a team that doest even reach the playoffs. this season, i intend on identifying value according to ADP, to help me minimize my drafting errors. obviously, with preseason still going on, some situations will need to pan out before i can truly identify value
12 Team .5 PPR Money League
1st Place 8-4 (1456.70 Pts)

QB Schaub
WR RWayne
WR Driver
RB DWill
RB RGrant
TE VDavis
W/R Mendenhall
K Tynes
DEF WW
BENCH TJHoush,DMC,Winslow,DAvery,Arizonas D (for Playoffs)
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Re: a d scoring

Postby Deamon » Sat Aug 09, 2008 1:05 pm

I've played and researched many fantasy leagues, and recently joined one with a scoring system that seems crazy to me. The commish is arguing hard that there is nothing wrong with this system and that it is standard. I can live with most of it (even the high QB scoring), but have a hard time agreeing with the defensive scoring, and have been unable to find any other leagues with a format even close to this. It kinda throws strategy out the window!

Would love to hear some comments from some experienced fantasy players about if the defensive scoring should change:

Stat Categories: Passing Yards (20 yards per point; 10 points at 400 yards)
Passing Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions (-2)
Rushing Yards (10 yards per point; 10 points at 200 yards)
Rushing Touchdowns (6)
Reception Yards (10 yards per point; 10 points at 200 yards)
Reception Touchdowns (6)
Return Touchdowns (6)
2-Point Conversions (2)
Fumbles Lost (-2)
Offensive Fumble Return TD (6)
Field Goals 0-19 Yards (3)
Field Goals 20-29 Yards (3)
Field Goals 30-39 Yards (3)
Field Goals 40-49 Yards (4)
Field Goals 50+ Yards (5)
Point After Attempt Made (1)
Sack (2)
Interception (2)
Fumble Recovery (2)
Touchdown (6)
Safety (2)
Block Kick (2)
Points Allowed 0 points (20)
Points Allowed 1-6 points (17)
Points Allowed 7-13 points (15)
Points Allowed 14-20 points (12)
Points Allowed 21-27 points (10)
Points Allowed 28-34 points (5)
Points Allowed 35+ points (0)
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