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Running Back Handcuffs - 2008

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Re: Running Back Handcuffs - 2008

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:45 pm

Ablack86 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
Ablack86 wrote:I have a lot of theory's on this...... IMO If you're going to pickup backups WHYNOT handcuff your players? What good does Kolby Smith do you if you already have 3 healthy NON LJ_backs??? Not alot... maybe some trade bait. If you do have LJ... well you now have 3 healthy backs again if he goes down. I also think there is nothing wrong with reaching early for your handcuffs, depending on who you are handcuffing of course. I think reaching to handcuff guys like AP and MB3 can be way to far of a stretch. But if your an LT owner and don't draft Hester or Sproles then you are an explicitive. Another thing that definitely should be considered when handcuffing and of course drafting a player in the first player is there current health status and there priors. Drafting a guy like Ronnie Brown pretty much forces you to handcuff him and handcuff him early. I think you will find the average draft position of Ricky Williams to be quite high.

When I draft I think long and hard about what it will cost me to handcuff a certain player. I will not pass up a large amount of value just because one player is easier to cuff, but if I'm looking at guys with equal value (Like a Portis / Addai) I will draft the player that will in the end be easier to handcuff. Instead of wasting a top 10 pick on Betts, I can draft another wideout or something else that makes my team better.

My 2cents.

I'd like to hear what other people think and how they approach this.

There seems to be some confusion here, at least as I read it. You suggest only cuffing your own RB, so that if your starter suffers an injury, you have the handcuff (Duh). However, then you call somebody an expletive if they fail to do so, under (and here's where I'm making the jump) the presumption that somebody else will draft your handcuff; such as in your Sproles/Hester example for LT.

Of course everything depends on league/roster depth, and how you utilize your bench, but it would seem to me that it may be more beneficial to grab a guy like Sproles, even if you don't have Tomlinson, over handcuffing your own player; provided Sproles projects to have more overall value. This is a strategy that I think could be used, if your first point about having enough healthy RB even with an injury, is satisfied. An example of this would be something like leaving Marshawn Lunch unhandcuffed and drafting a player like Felix Jones, even if you don't have MB3, instead.

Is this a crazy line of thinking? I'm only a so so fantasy football player in terms of strategy, despite being a huge NCAA/NFL fan and knowing the players well.



Not crazy at all. Depending on how many bench spots a league has, you can do both as well. I drafted in a draft Saturday and was able to handcuff all of my backs AND grab Hester with my final pick. This is the reason I used that as an example. Why wouldn't the LT owner grab either Sproles or Hester....

Also if you only do what you have suggested, you are basically entering a crapshoot of which back will break a leg or which back will steal a job. When handcuffing your player, it makes this much more ABC. Your back goes down, you have a replacement.

I am by NO means saying do not grab other players handcuffs, but I am saying it will be far more valuable to reach for yours first.

It seems like a risk/reward thing (I'm stating the obvious, but bear with me). The opportunity at having your 3 healthy RB plus an additional healthy, starting option in a handcuff on a player you don't have is enticing, with the risk being S.O.L. if one of your backs does go down and you didn't cuff them. How about handcuffs who are more in a carry split? Do they gain or lose value in a theory like this? Does Chester Taylor or Fred Taylor/MJD (I'm sure there are more but not off the top of my head) become more or less valuable if you're handcuffing players you don't have? My initial thought is that they go up, as if one of your starters does go down, your replacement, at least, is getting some carries -- so it's less risk, less reward. The ceiling comes down, but the floor raises.
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Re: Running Back Handcuffs - 2008

Postby Ablack86 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:59 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Ablack86 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:There seems to be some confusion here, at least as I read it. You suggest only cuffing your own RB, so that if your starter suffers an injury, you have the handcuff (Duh). However, then you call somebody an expletive if they fail to do so, under (and here's where I'm making the jump) the presumption that somebody else will draft your handcuff; such as in your Sproles/Hester example for LT.

Of course everything depends on league/roster depth, and how you utilize your bench, but it would seem to me that it may be more beneficial to grab a guy like Sproles, even if you don't have Tomlinson, over handcuffing your own player; provided Sproles projects to have more overall value. This is a strategy that I think could be used, if your first point about having enough healthy RB even with an injury, is satisfied. An example of this would be something like leaving Marshawn Lunch unhandcuffed and drafting a player like Felix Jones, even if you don't have MB3, instead.

Is this a crazy line of thinking? I'm only a so so fantasy football player in terms of strategy, despite being a huge NCAA/NFL fan and knowing the players well.



Not crazy at all. Depending on how many bench spots a league has, you can do both as well. I drafted in a draft Saturday and was able to handcuff all of my backs AND grab Hester with my final pick. This is the reason I used that as an example. Why wouldn't the LT owner grab either Sproles or Hester....

Also if you only do what you have suggested, you are basically entering a crapshoot of which back will break a leg or which back will steal a job. When handcuffing your player, it makes this much more ABC. Your back goes down, you have a replacement.

I am by NO means saying do not grab other players handcuffs, but I am saying it will be far more valuable to reach for yours first.

It seems like a risk/reward thing (I'm stating the obvious, but bear with me). The opportunity at having your 3 healthy RB plus an additional healthy, starting option in a handcuff on a player you don't have is enticing, with the risk being S.O.L. if one of your backs does go down and you didn't cuff them. How about handcuffs who are more in a carry split? Do they gain or lose value in a theory like this? Does Chester Taylor or Fred Taylor/MJD (I'm sure there are more but not off the top of my head) become more or less valuable if you're handcuffing players you don't have? My initial thought is that they go up, as if one of your starters does go down, your replacement, at least, is getting some carries -- so it's less risk, less reward. The ceiling comes down, but the floor raises.


Now here's where the debate REALLY starts. I think having 2 backs like Chester/ADP or FT and MJD can be nice.... Especially since you know the performance of your handcuff will be solid if either goes down. BUT it all boils down on when you have to make that investment. I'm unsure what the average draft position of Fred Taylor is but it's gotta be like the 5th-6th round and similarly the same with Chester. Do you want to make an investment like that that early? I really would prefer not too. At this point in the draft you can grab another player that will add major value to your team..... Oh man you gotta love fantasy football =)
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Re: Running Back Handcuffs - 2008

Postby Ablack86 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 5:02 pm

BTW Orton is now the starting Quarterback for the Bears. So in a 12 team league where you play 2 quarterbacks, do you handcuff him with Grossman? :-o

lol.
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Re: Running Back Handcuffs - 2008

Postby Dr. Duran Duran » Mon Aug 18, 2008 5:48 pm

Ablack86 wrote:BTW Orton is now the starting Quarterback for the Bears. So in a 12 team league where you play 2 quarterbacks, do you handcuff him with Grossman? :-o

lol.


Stay away - far away from the Bears quarterbacks.
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Re: Running Back Handcuffs - 2008

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Aug 18, 2008 5:57 pm

Ablack86 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
Ablack86 wrote:Not crazy at all. Depending on how many bench spots a league has, you can do both as well. I drafted in a draft Saturday and was able to handcuff all of my backs AND grab Hester with my final pick. This is the reason I used that as an example. Why wouldn't the LT owner grab either Sproles or Hester....

Also if you only do what you have suggested, you are basically entering a crapshoot of which back will break a leg or which back will steal a job. When handcuffing your player, it makes this much more ABC. Your back goes down, you have a replacement.

I am by NO means saying do not grab other players handcuffs, but I am saying it will be far more valuable to reach for yours first.

It seems like a risk/reward thing (I'm stating the obvious, but bear with me). The opportunity at having your 3 healthy RB plus an additional healthy, starting option in a handcuff on a player you don't have is enticing, with the risk being S.O.L. if one of your backs does go down and you didn't cuff them. How about handcuffs who are more in a carry split? Do they gain or lose value in a theory like this? Does Chester Taylor or Fred Taylor/MJD (I'm sure there are more but not off the top of my head) become more or less valuable if you're handcuffing players you don't have? My initial thought is that they go up, as if one of your starters does go down, your replacement, at least, is getting some carries -- so it's less risk, less reward. The ceiling comes down, but the floor raises.


Now here's where the debate REALLY starts. I think having 2 backs like Chester/ADP or FT and MJD can be nice.... Especially since you know the performance of your handcuff will be solid if either goes down. BUT it all boils down on when you have to make that investment. I'm unsure what the average draft position of Fred Taylor is but it's gotta be like the 5th-6th round and similarly the same with Chester. Do you want to make an investment like that that early? I really would prefer not too. At this point in the draft you can grab another player that will add major value to your team..... Oh man you gotta love fantasy football =)

As I said, I know the players, etc. well; but it's the fantasy strategy itself I'm unfamiliar with, despite playing FF for the last 8 years.

The debate here would be whether you'd rather invest a 5/6 Round pick in a player like Taylor(s) who are going to give you points even with All Day and MJD healthy vs...

a) investing in other handcuffs (the more traditional variety) which are expected to go in round... (I'm asking here).
b) investing in other players who could start in your lineup in that round such as (again, I'm asking here).

What other types of players are going in Round 5/6? WRs like Cotchery, Bowe, Harrison, and Ward? Those seem like pretty good value picks. But the RBs like Julius Jones, LenDale White, and Rudi Johnson seem iffy. The top tier QBs have gone, so you're looking at maybe a Derek Anderson, Hasselbeck, Favre, or Roethlisberger, or maybe a TE like Winslow, Dallas Clark or Gonzalez if they're still around. Seems like best value is grabbing WR here, with guys like Driver, Marshall, Jennings, and Lee Evans finding their way down there as well (I've got limited ADP/Mocks to look at -- are there more over here that I'm just missing or are some being worked on? I've always found that using mocks is the best guide for helping me do Football drafts, but there don't seem to be as many here as I remember in previous years).
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