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Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby Azrael » Sun Aug 17, 2008 9:16 pm

I'm beginning to think Megatron is going to be a mega stud this year. He's definitely Kitna's go to guy.
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby My team is injured » Sun Aug 17, 2008 9:52 pm

Props for putting together such a comprehensive listing with the comments.

A few things:

1.) Plax is too high. I have him at 15, and while a part of that is due to my rankings being based on PPR, he still shouldn't be in the top 10 in standard scoring. He's never caught more than 78 passes in a season and has had big-time games in which he's come up empty (0 catches in the first round playoff game a couple years ago). He also has a QB who was still inconsistent into the end of last season, has never completed more than 58 % of his passes, and isn't going to throw for a lot of yds compared to many other QBs around the league. And even during Plax's great 6 game start to the season last year, he had under 35 yards receiving in 2 of the games, not to mention the subsequent tail-off the rest of the year.

2.) Nothing much else to disagree with in your top 10. For me personally, I have 6 guys I could pretty much interchange after Moss and TO in Wayne, Colston, Edwards, Andre, Fitz, and Steve Smith. And good job on not bumping Smith down much due to his suspension as I likewise can't see knocking him down past guys like Holt, Housh, etc. when he's been such a beast with Delhomme the past several seasons.

3.) Santonio is too high as well, and I think you're taking some liberties in saying he played like a 1300/12 guy last year when healthy as his #s don't quite bear that out. I like Holmes, but I just don't see him putting up #s to justify ranking him ahead of guys like Holt, Chad, Marshall, etc. when you consider the Pittsburgh run-oriented offense and guys like Ward and Miller to a lesser extent getting their catches as well. I've bumped up Pitt's passing yardage 500 yards over last year and still have Santonio under 1200 yards over 16 games.

4.) I completely agree on your comments regarding Marshall. Due to that, I've ranked him even higher as I likewise believe in Cutler and think Marshall is worth drafting top 15 despite the 2-3 game suspension. It's also influenced by PPR rankings as I think Marshall will haul in quite a few passes.

5.) I do agree with you on having guys like Greg Jennings and Lee Evans on the outside looking in at the top 20 plus spots. I actually just checking my rankings and I ironically have Jennings 25 and Evans 29. So I guess I can't argue on these 2 ;-D

6.) In regards to Hines Ward, it's a bit unbalanced of an analysis when you project Santonio based on his 13 games played but discuss Ward as a WR30 despite his 13 games played. In PPR leagues, Santonio only outscored Ward by 8 points last year with both playing the same # of games. Furthermore, Ward had 10 catches for 135 yards in Pitt's playoff game vs. 3 for 49 and a TD for Holmes. If Ward can stay healthy, he'll still be on Ben's radar, he'll probably get more catches than Holmes, and I'd expect their #s in PPR leagues to be similar.

7.) I only have 1 WR in my top 25 not in your 32 listed so no big discrepancies in that regard. And that guy, Derrick Mason, I only included (at 24) due to it being a PPR league, and it surprised me that he warranted being so high as I had him substantially lower before doing projections. But I see him getting around 85 catches and 1050 yards, which warrants him being that high despite a low # of expected TDs. I checked his game log from last year with Boller and Troy Smith at the helm, and he did a bit better in those games than the others with Mcnair, posting a substantially higher YPC and 4 of his 5 TDs without much of a drop-off in receptions (still projected to 91 based on non-Mcnair starts).
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby moochman » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:16 pm

Azrael wrote:I'm beginning to think Megatron is going to be a mega stud this year. He's definitely Kitna's go to guy.


He looks uncoverable. Kitna seems way too comfortable tossing lob passes for him to jump up and grab with his sticky hands. I am starting to think that the real CJ is about to burst upon the scene.
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Aug 18, 2008 8:46 am

moochman wrote:
Azrael wrote:I'm beginning to think Megatron is going to be a mega stud this year. He's definitely Kitna's go to guy.


He looks uncoverable. Kitna seems way too comfortable tossing lob passes for him to jump up and grab with his sticky hands. I am starting to think that the real CJ is about to burst upon the scene.


Agreed. I have to think CJ is going to be a top 5 WR this year - Clearly he is Kitna's main target, and why shouldnt he be? He is clearly better than Roy Williams and thats not taking anything away from RW either. RW is a very very good WR, its just that CJ is a man among boys.

Those of you who have seen CJ this preseason know what we are saying - the guy is simply uncoverable.
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby moochman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:27 am

Good to hear from you CBM. Hope things are well in Flint-town.
What this also makes one consider is that it won't take long before teams double Megatron. I don't know that leaving Roy WIlliams with one-to-one coverage is going to work to well on his contract year. Both could roar. (do not forget these are Lions players and as such must suffer for the rot of bad management and bad luck that infests this organization).
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby GoCardZ » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:18 am

Azrael wrote:I'm beginning to think Megatron is going to be a mega stud this year. He's definitely Kitna's go to guy.

i thought kitna's go to guy was the opposing team's free safety? :-)
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby Azrael » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:57 am

moochman wrote:Good to hear from you CBM. Hope things are well in Flint-town.
What this also makes one consider is that it won't take long before teams double Megatron. I don't know that leaving Roy WIlliams with one-to-one coverage is going to work to well on his contract year. Both could roar. (do not forget these are Lions players and as such must suffer for the rot of bad management and bad luck that infests this organization).


I think you will see both do better this year. In Martz's system, many teams weren't respecting the run, keeping their safeties deep and hence allowing the slot guys like Furrey and McDonald to ring up the catches. Now with a bit more emphasis on the run, this will bring the safeties up more and allow the outside guys to get more looks.
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby tomkatt » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:35 pm

Excellent article! ;-D
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby Kensat30 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:32 pm

I've bought into the "hype" on Calvin Johnson and moved him up into my second tier right around WR#8. It's really hard to put this guy up there with the Reggie Wayne's of the world, but I keep getting this feeling that if I pass on this guy in even the 2nd round it could come back to hurt.

Then again, I thought Matt Jones in the 8th round would win championships a couple years back, so I'm tempering expectations a little bit. Honestly, I almost want to move this guy into my first tier. Hopefully other owners won't bite on the preseason enough to put him in their top10. I had him close to the top10 before he played a snap this offseason, so it would suck to lose him to the hype now.

Other movers:
Brandon Marshall - moving up. I've reviewed some highlights and realized that Marshall can put together a 10 TD season. I've become a fan of his playing style, although I don't think he is built to be a stud WR right away (too many juke moves, not enough break away seperation). He's now closer to WR#15 though.

Roddy White - moving up. I like what I've seen out of the Atlanta offense so far and think White can replicate what he did last year. Closer to WR#20.
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby Kensat30 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:01 pm

My team is injured wrote:Props for putting together such a comprehensive listing with the comments.

A few things:

1.) Plax is too high. I have him at 15, and while a part of that is due to my rankings being based on PPR, he still shouldn't be in the top 10 in standard scoring. He's never caught more than 78 passes in a season and has had big-time games in which he's come up empty (0 catches in the first round playoff game a couple years ago). He also has a QB who was still inconsistent into the end of last season, has never completed more than 58 % of his passes, and isn't going to throw for a lot of yds compared to many other QBs around the league. And even during Plax's great 6 game start to the season last year, he had under 35 yards receiving in 2 of the games, not to mention the subsequent tail-off the rest of the year.

3.) Santonio is too high as well, and I think you're taking some liberties in saying he played like a 1300/12 guy last year when healthy as his #s don't quite bear that out. I like Holmes, but I just don't see him putting up #s to justify ranking him ahead of guys like Holt, Chad, Marshall, etc. when you consider the Pittsburgh run-oriented offense and guys like Ward and Miller to a lesser extent getting their catches as well. I've bumped up Pitt's passing yardage 500 yards over last year and still have Santonio under 1200 yards over 16 games.

6.) In regards to Hines Ward, it's a bit unbalanced of an analysis when you project Santonio based on his 13 games played but discuss Ward as a WR30 despite his 13 games played. In PPR leagues, Santonio only outscored Ward by 8 points last year with both playing the same # of games. Furthermore, Ward had 10 catches for 135 yards in Pitt's playoff game vs. 3 for 49 and a TD for Holmes. If Ward can stay healthy, he'll still be on Ben's radar, he'll probably get more catches than Holmes, and I'd expect their #s in PPR leagues to be similar.

7.) I only have 1 WR in my top 25 not in your 32 listed so no big discrepancies in that regard. And that guy, Derrick Mason, I only included (at 24) due to it being a PPR league, and it surprised me that he warranted being so high as I had him substantially lower before doing projections. But I see him getting around 85 catches and 1050 yards, which warrants him being that high despite a low # of expected TDs. I checked his game log from last year with Boller and Troy Smith at the helm, and he did a bit better in those games than the others with Mcnair, posting a substantially higher YPC and 4 of his 5 TDs without much of a drop-off in receptions (still projected to 91 based on non-Mcnair starts).


Keep in mind that these are non-PPR rankings. So therefore I weigh TD scoring potential much higher than catch/yardage potential.

#1- 100% disagree on Burress. I think he is one of the elite TD scoring WRs in the NFL. Take a look at what he did in the first half of last year, that right there is upside. Now factor in that Burress basically didn't practice for the entire year and was playing on one ankle and he still scored 12 TDs. Very few guys can come out and score 12 TDs in the prime of their career and to do that injured and playing on a bad ankle? Reggie Wayne and Chad Johnson have never scored even 11 TDs in a season despite playing healthy. The main reason I think Burress is primed for success this season is that he is truly the goto WR on a solid offensive team. Amani Toomer is too old to hold onto a WR2 spot and steal a lot of production like he did last season. Jeremy Shockey is gone. Steve Smith/Sinorice Moss/other are getting to the point where they will push Toomer for a lot of playing time. I think Burress is the only guy who will be on the field 100% of plays, and 6'6" is real hard to miss once you get near the stripe.

#3/#6 - Here I think your PPR scoring is coloring your view a bit. Santonio Holmes had 18 yards per catch last season.. That is just insane, but it lowers his value from a PPR perspective. 1000/8 in 13 games in a players second season is a sign of big things to come for me. Sounds a whole lot like what Colston did in his rookie year and I think we are going to see that kind of production curve from Holmes this season. As for your Ward argument, I really don't see how you can compare Ward's season last year to Holmes. You're looking at two players going in completely different directions here. Ward's best days are behind him and that is evidenced in his missing more and more games each year and becoming less and less productive each year. True, Ward and Holmes both missed 3 games (Holmes barely played in his 13th), but Ward went for 750/7 and Holmes went for 1000/8 ? That is a big chunk of change. Ward had a knee issue that he had surgery for this offseason (potential red flag) and Holmes had a sprained ankle. Ward is basically on his way to the bench and Holmes was only in his second season last year... Big Ben exploded. Who do you figure to benefit the most this year? Pittsburgh is going to score a lot of TDs through the air in 2008 again. This is not the Jerome Bettis Steelers. And even then, Ward is the one who is going to suffer the most if the rushing TDs increase, Holmes does most of his damage down the field. I've hitched my wagon to Holmes this season and that is why he is sniffing my top10. I don't even view it as a close battle at all, Holmes should outperform Ward by a large margin this year. And regarding Holmes himself, why wouldn't you have the #1 WR on one of the top offenses in the league high in your rankings? That would be like ranking Reggie Wayne at WR15 because you think Marvin Harrison will come back strong this year.

#7 - Derrick Mason is a boring pick. Most would consider him "safe", but I personally think he is an avoid. The guy got forcefed the ball last year because there was nothing else on that offense besides Mcgahee. And even being forcefed the way he was, he still had a pretty crappy fantasy year with only 1100/5 on 100+ catches. Seeing as you are in a PPR league, I can see ranking him higher than most, but honestly I think you are seeing gold in the rearview mirror. I think this year we see Clayton and Heap cut into Mason's totals. A LOT. And either way I don't like the crap that Baltimore will be throwing out there at QB and the way they have been training like it's week 10 in the offseason. Harbaugh is showing his lack of experience by pushing the Raven's to the point of massive injuries. I think Baltimore is going to start slow and have a fairly bad season with a lot of turmoil on the offensive side of the ball. The shining light there is the 1-2 punch of Mcgahee/Rice to keep defenses honestly. Most importantly, I think it is almost assured that we are going to see Joe Flacco start in the second half of the season(I have not been impressed with him at any point). 4-12 is easily within reach for Baltimore this year IMO. And to get back on topic, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mark Clayton outperform Mason this year. Mason is the type of guy I would grab in the 13th round because I thought it was too early for my last round sleeper choices and I might need a solid bye week WR to fill in as WR#5 on my squad.
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