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Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby My team is injured » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:11 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
Keep in mind that these are non-PPR rankings. So therefore I weigh TD scoring potential much higher than catch/yardage potential.

#1- 100% disagree on Burress. I think he is one of the elite TD scoring WRs in the NFL. Take a look at what he did in the first half of last year, that right there is upside. Now factor in that Burress basically didn't practice for the entire year and was playing on one ankle and he still scored 12 TDs. Very few guys can come out and score 12 TDs in the prime of their career and to do that injured and playing on a bad ankle? Reggie Wayne and Chad Johnson have never scored even 11 TDs in a season despite playing healthy. The main reason I think Burress is primed for success this season is that he is truly the goto WR on a solid offensive team. Amani Toomer is too old to hold onto a WR2 spot and steal a lot of production like he did last season. Jeremy Shockey is gone. Steve Smith/Sinorice Moss/other are getting to the point where they will push Toomer for a lot of playing time. I think Burress is the only guy who will be on the field 100% of plays, and 6'6" is real hard to miss once you get near the stripe.

#3/#6 - Here I think your PPR scoring is coloring your view a bit. Santonio Holmes had 18 yards per catch last season.. That is just insane, but it lowers his value from a PPR perspective. 1000/8 in 13 games in a players second season is a sign of big things to come for me. Sounds a whole lot like what Colston did in his rookie year and I think we are going to see that kind of production curve from Holmes this season. As for your Ward argument, I really don't see how you can compare Ward's season last year to Holmes. You're looking at two players going in completely different directions here. Ward's best days are behind him and that is evidenced in his missing more and more games each year and becoming less and less productive each year. True, Ward and Holmes both missed 3 games (Holmes barely played in his 13th), but Ward went for 750/7 and Holmes went for 1000/8 ? That is a big chunk of change. Ward had a knee issue that he had surgery for this offseason (potential red flag) and Holmes had a sprained ankle. Ward is basically on his way to the bench and Holmes was only in his second season last year... Big Ben exploded. Who do you figure to benefit the most this year? Pittsburgh is going to score a lot of TDs through the air in 2008 again. This is not the Jerome Bettis Steelers. And even then, Ward is the one who is going to suffer the most if the rushing TDs increase, Holmes does most of his damage down the field. I've hitched my wagon to Holmes this season and that is why he is sniffing my top10. I don't even view it as a close battle at all, Holmes should outperform Ward by a large margin this year. And regarding Holmes himself, why wouldn't you have the #1 WR on one of the top offenses in the league high in your rankings? That would be like ranking Reggie Wayne at WR15 because you think Marvin Harrison will come back strong this year.

#7 - Derrick Mason is a boring pick. Most would consider him "safe", but I personally think he is an avoid. The guy got forcefed the ball last year because there was nothing else on that offense besides Mcgahee. And even being forcefed the way he was, he still had a pretty crappy fantasy year with only 1100/5 on 100+ catches. Seeing as you are in a PPR league, I can see ranking him higher than most, but honestly I think you are seeing gold in the rearview mirror. I think this year we see Clayton and Heap cut into Mason's totals. A LOT. And either way I don't like the crap that Baltimore will be throwing out there at QB and the way they have been training like it's week 10 in the offseason. Harbaugh is showing his lack of experience by pushing the Raven's to the point of massive injuries. I think Baltimore is going to start slow and have a fairly bad season with a lot of turmoil on the offensive side of the ball. The shining light there is the 1-2 punch of Mcgahee/Rice to keep defenses honestly. Most importantly, I think it is almost assured that we are going to see Joe Flacco start in the second half of the season(I have not been impressed with him at any point). 4-12 is easily within reach for Baltimore this year IMO. And to get back on topic, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mark Clayton outperform Mason this year. Mason is the type of guy I would grab in the 13th round because I thought it was too early for my last round sleeper choices and I might need a solid bye week WR to fill in as WR#5 on my squad.


I'm assuming your rankings are based on "standard" scoring which I think is generally perceived as 10 yds rushing/receiving and 6 pts for ru/rec. TDs. This is how all my leagues are with the addition of the 1 PPR, and for any evaluations in my reply strongly influenced by PPR, I tried to mention the PPR influence.

With that being said, I may have under-rated the PPR element a bit in terms of how it affects the value of certain receivers. And I realize that all 3 guys in question (Burress, Holmes, and Mason) are going to be affected more than typical wideouts from PPR to non-PPR as the number of receptions is the most limiting factor for the values of Burress and Holmes and the strongest factor for Mason.

After looking over things, I think we only differ on a couple guys in relation to the values of Holmes and Burress and it's probably not as much a discrepancy as I initially thought. I have Holmes at 18 in PPR and in non-PPR would probably bump him up over Cotchery, Welker, and Marshall, which would put him at 15. The only guys who we differ on are Holt, Chad, Anquan, and Roy, and I'm lukewarm on Anquan and Roy currently. As for Burress, I have him 15 and in non-PPR would likewise bump him up ahead of guys like Anquan, Marshall, and Housh and could consider others. There's no way I'm putting him ahead of Andre though.

And in reference to your one statement, Ward is hardly on the way to the bench as things stand currently. I'm not going to go in-depth as I have Holmes ranked ahead of Ward in my PPR league and would easily have him ahead in non-PPR so it's largely futile to go much into this. But just a quick stat to show Ward is still more in the picture than you imply: there were 11 regular season games in which Ward and Holmes both played last season. The stats were 51, 554, 5 for Ward vs. 42, 716, 5 for Holmes. And again, in the playoff game, Ward had 6 more catches for 86 more yards (albeit minus the TD).

And I aint gonna defend Mason much as I don't care much for him or Baltimore. And my ranking him that high was solely due to PPR as I indicated originally. It just surprised me when I did projections how well his numbers came out, even if he has a drop-off of up to 20 catches. He doesn't have as much upside as other wideouts, and I likely wouldn't draft him anywhere too close to where others I have ranked around him will get drafted. But I see him as quite a nice value later in the draft in PPR leagues for the numbers he'll likely put up. If I'm not mistaken, Clayton's been dealing with injuries this pre-season after coming off a subpar year, and Mason's put up 86 catches for 1000+ yards previously in Heap's best year so I don't see his presence hurting Mason. Oh, and turmoil on the offensive side of the ball wouldn't exactly be anything new to the Ravens. :-)
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby Kensat30 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 9:24 pm

On PPR vs. non-PPR, I think there is a fairly subtantial difference in rankings between these two types of leagues. I typically participate in many more non-PPR leagues or .5 ppr leagues than full or bonus PPRs and that's why I listed these rankings. In PPR, guys like Welker and Boldin are money and the Derrick Masons of the world become very draftable. Basically any guy that you can count on for 5+ catches a week holds a lot of value in a ppr. You almost have to look at first at catch totals in PPR rather than true production. Older veteran guys in PPR tend to be more valuable than in standard leagues simply because they are on the field more and their routes and hands allow them to catch more (shorter) passes even though they do less with them.

Derrick Mason is the perfect example of this in recent seasons. His week to week totals basically suck for standard leagues because he barely ever scores any TDs any more. Not only that, but despite catching a lot of passes, he rarely puts up 100 yard games as a Raven. That type of player, who scores between 5 and 8 points a week on average is putting you behind in most leagues and has very little upside from week to week. When you have bench players with sweet matchups, those 5 points goto the bench real easy. And those 5 points usually stay on the bench all season long just in case of emergency. That type of player SUCKS to own in a standard league because there is no upside there. Why waste a 10th round pick on a backup? I can draft backups in the last round and pick them up off the waiver wire quite easily. I draft players in the 10th round that have the potential to beat out players I drafted in the 4th round. In a PPR league those 7 catches for 60 yards each week is money. It's worth drafting a guy like Derrick Mason late in those leagues.
-----

On Ward, I look at the big picture (trend of the past few seasons) and not just the limited amount of games he played with Holmes. You state that Ward put up 550/5 and Holmes 750/5 in the 11 games they both played, and that in itself is a significant difference of nearly 40% production. But combine that with the fact that Ward has been declining for FOUR YEARS running in basically all the departments... Especially when you consider that the Pittsburgh offense was radically changed last year and Ward still declined, that really reflects back on Ward individually. Holmes last year flourished in the new system and put up significantly better stats than in his rookie year despite 3-4 less games played.

Back to the 11 games where Ward and Holmes played together, for Ward 550 yards in 11 games extrapolates out to an 800 yard 16 game season. That is very subpar historically for Ward and its pretty crappy for a starting WR on a team like the Steelers. Again, in a standard league receptions count for nothing. Ward barely averaged 10 yards per catch last year and he had knee surgery this offseason. That is old and slow territory for a WR, almost TE-like. Not many guys can recover from that type of drop when they are Ward's age. And this year they drafted a big WR and a RB in the first round, I think those two acquisitions could significantly cut into Ward's TD production in the redzone.

Holmes put up 800 yards in his ROOKIE season on less than 50 catches. And in the 11 games he played with Ward last year, Holmes had 750 yards which extrapolates out to 1100 yards. And what were his numbers in the 2 games where Ward didn't play, like 200/2? Even cherry picking the data like that, Holmes was head and shoulders better than Ward last year and he was only a second year player in the league! Again look at the trends, we have a young WR who goes from 800 yards in 16 games as a rookie to 1,000 yards in 12 games as a sophmore. His TDs increased from 2 to 8 with 25% less games played. He easily overtook Ward as the #1 WR there and this year he should be viewed as the clearcut #1 WR. On a team that passed for 30+ TDs, you gotta rank him near the top10 unless you see something wrong with his talent or situation this year. Everything for me looks like a green light, that is why Holmes is ahead of guys like Holt (knee, declining production, horrible team last year) and Chad Johnson (never had double digit TDs, offseason disruptions, now shoulder injury).
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby J.C.Fighter » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:10 pm

Hmmm don't you think the acquisitions of Sweed and Mendenhall will affect Holme's TD numbers ?
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 11:57 am

J.C.Fighter wrote:Hmmm don't you think the acquisitions of Sweed and Mendenhall will affect Holme's TD numbers ?


Not really.

#1 - Big Ben threw over 30 TD passes last season. Even with a significant dropoff there should be more than enough for the #1 WR in that offense to break into the double digits. Derek Anderson had a similar number of TD passes compared to Big Ben last season and Edwards scored 16 TDs. Most people have Braylon ranked as a top5 WR and rightfully so based on what he did last year, but you should notice that the potential is also there for a Pittsburgh WR to put up similar numbers to Edwards.

#2 - Holmes is a big play threat. That means this guy can score from anywhere on the field, especially in the "green zone" between the 40 and the 20 yardline in opponent territory. I don't think we will see Sweed all that much unless Holmes/Ward gets a significant injury except when he is being used in specialized packages around the goalline. Even then, Pittsburgh showed that they really almost prefer to use the TE around the goalline anyways.

#3 - I think Mendenhall will help out Holmes and the Pittsburgh offense in general. We saw Najeh Davenport come in and contribute last year, and I think a much more talented Mendenhall gets that many more first downs and big plays than Davenport did last year. If the rushing numbers improve in Pittsburgh, that doesn't necessarily mean the passing numbers with decline.
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby theimitator » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:41 pm

Anyone wanna add anything?

My draft is tomorrow, and I really like these rankings (with one or two small changes). ;-D
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QB: Carson Palmer, Vince Young
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Reggie Bush, Tim Hightower
WR: Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens, Jabar Gaffney
TE: John Carlson, Ben Watson
PK: R Gould
TD: NO, TB
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby no2leads » Mon Aug 25, 2008 2:07 pm

this is a great post....my 0.02 -

as listed here, i like Steve Smith over Reggie Wayne this year. Marvin is not done yet, Peyton looking iffy at the start, a healthy Delhomme will mean big numbers again for Smith.

i think Roy Williams and Brandon Marshall are both about 5 spots too low here...i like them both better then Chambers, Bowe, Cotchery, and now maybe even CJ with the injury. Defenses facing Detroit can't concentrate 100% on Roy anymore with Calvin Johnson getting better. Roy will get his numbers, he's in a contract year. never underestimate the contract year. the Detroit oweners (Ford) have big money and Roy knows this.
Marshall will sit his two games and will be itching to dominate...
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby Kensat30 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 2:47 pm

In my big-play league (start 3 WR + flex), I ended up going WR/WR and then going on to take 4 WRs in my first 6 picks. It's a ten team league so I went into the draft with the general strategy of focusing on taking the best player available regardless of position. I ended up taking the strategy much deeper into the draft than I normally would with a 12 team league or even in a standard 10 team league.

Here's the first six rounds

1.10 - Randy Moss (I had Moss ranked #4 overall...WR#1)
2.1 - Terrell Owens (thought about L.Johnson and would have taken Frank Gore who was taken at #9...WR#2)
3.10 - Steve Smith (between Calvin Johnson, Santonio Holmes, S.Smith ... WR#11)
4.1 - Brandon Jacobs (first forced pick, Jacobs was highest RB on my list...RB#16)
---- (top 7 QBs gone at this point)
5.10 - Thomas Jones (awesome value here, RB#24)
6.1 - Brandon Marshall (took BPA available here, all other 9 teams had their QB at this point.. WR#)


Here's the final roster:
QB
Derek Anderson
Garrard
Schaub

RB
Jacobs
T.Jones
Kevin Smith
Chris Johnson
Ray Rice
Maurice Morris

WR
Randy Moss
Terrell Owens
Steve Smith
Brandon Marshall
Anthony Gonzalez
Derrick Mason

TE
Owen Daniels
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby steelerfan513 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:23 pm

Considering you waited until the 4th to take your first RB that's a pretty darn good team. Your wide receivers are absolute dynamite, you've got good depth at RB to try to make up for the lack of a superstar back. QBs are good.
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby Azrael » Mon Aug 25, 2008 4:13 pm

Thomas Jones and Brandon Marshall are highway robbery at that point. Those could be clincher picks there. And if Jacobs stays healthy he will be very productive too.
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Re: Rankings my top32 WRs with commentary(long)

Postby MrE » Mon Aug 25, 2008 4:14 pm

Good commentary. I disagree on having Marshall and Boldin so low, but your reasoning is sound for all of your selections. My one thought: You have to think Santana Moss can slot in there somewhere!
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