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Peyton Manning's Value

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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby dream_017 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:38 pm

FatFoot wrote:Would you take him earlier than that if passing TDs were 6 pts?

nope...you could even make them 8 points ;-7
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby treat24 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:47 pm

dream_017 wrote:
FatFoot wrote:Would you take him earlier than that if passing TDs were 6 pts?

nope...you could even make them 8 points ;-7


same here.


edit: why do I keep agreeing with you today... stop saying stuff i agree with right now! :)
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby dream_017 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:57 pm

treat24 wrote:
dream_017 wrote:
FatFoot wrote:Would you take him earlier than that if passing TDs were 6 pts?

nope...you could even make them 8 points ;-7


same here.


edit: why do I keep agreeing with you today... stop saying stuff i agree with right now! :)

I think Peterson should be abbreviated ADP 8-o
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby treat24 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:01 pm

dream_017 wrote:I think Peterson should be abbreviated ADP 8-o


them's fightin' words :-[ :-b
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby FatFoot » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:23 pm

Yall crazy. :)
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby TGM » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:24 pm

Assuming the rest of your scoring is fairly standard, if Peyton falls to you #6 and you already have Gore as your #1 RB, I'd pull the trigger on him and be happy. The scoring system definitely favors QB's, and Peyton is still one of the most consistent and top performers at his position.

Now, if there's more to it than that (i.e., it's a PPR with 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving), then maybe not. Although, you could still make an argument for Peyton.

Having said all that, I'd be a little surprised if he does fall to you. Do you have inside knowledge that others won't draft him (ahead of you)? Or, is it just wishful thinking on your part?
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby dream_017 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:34 pm

FatFoot wrote:Yall crazy. :)

There are many many threads on it, so I'll just give teh quick cliff notes version. QB passing going from 4 to 6 is only a difference of 2 points. Over the season if a top QB throws 35 TDs and a mid throws 17, that is only a difference of 36 points over the course of a season, or over 13 games: 2.76923. Why bump up QBs because of going from 4 to 6 points. It's only 27 rushing yards, which by you taking a QB, I will make up those points on RBs very easily ;-D
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby Stelly » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:38 pm

TGM wrote:Assuming the rest of your scoring is fairly standard, if Peyton falls to you #6 and you already have Gore as your #1 RB, I'd pull the trigger on him and be happy. The scoring system definitely favors QB's, and Peyton is still one of the most consistent and top performers at his position.

Now, if there's more to it than that (i.e., it's a PPR with 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving), then maybe not. Although, you could still make an argument for Peyton.

Having said all that, I'd be a little surprised if he does fall to you. Do you have inside knowledge that others won't draft him (ahead of you)? Or, is it just wishful thinking on your part?


I'm picking 6th. Players available are LT, Westy, Moss, Grant and TO. I know that LT and Westy will go 1 and 2. The guy drafting third usually grabs a RB in Round 1, and will need to here in my opinion or he'll be playing with Thomas Jones (one of his keeprs) and Earnest Graham as his RBs. So I'm guessing he takes Grant. #4 has said either Moss or Manning, and #5 wants a WR as well (with Addai, SJax and Aplmer as keepers).

So I'm left with either Manning or TO at #6. If TO is there, I'm taking him. If it's Manning, it's either Manning, or a RB like MJD/McGahee or a WR Fitzgerald. Ideally, the draft goes LT, Westy, Grant, Manning, Moss, then I take TO at 6.

By taking Manning in the 1st, I'm left taking my RB2 in the second (like a Jacobs/R. Brown type player), then my WR1 in the 4th, and by then, I'm taking a midlevel WR2 as my WR1. If I take a WR in the second, I'm taking a guy like L. White or Edge in the 4th as my RB2. Neither situation really strikes my fancy. Although, having Manning should make up for my deficit at either RB or WR I guess.
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RB: R. Rice, CJ Spiller
WR: AJ Green
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby TGM » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:41 pm

dream_017 wrote:There are many many threads on it, so I'll just give teh quick cliff notes version. QB passing going from 4 to 6 is only a difference of 2 points. Over the season if a top QB throws 35 TDs and a mid throws 17, that is only a difference of 36 points over the course of a season, or over 13 games: 2.76923. Why bump up QBs because of going from 4 to 6 points. It's only 27 rushing yards, which by you taking a QB, I will make up those points on RBs very easily ;-D


Granted, but I was also factoring the scoring for passing yards and INT's too. Having said that, I fully understand your point of view. I guess it would be helpful to know all the scoring parameters for the league in question.
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby FatFoot » Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:00 pm

dream_017 wrote:
FatFoot wrote:Yall crazy. :)

There are many many threads on it, so I'll just give teh quick cliff notes version. QB passing going from 4 to 6 is only a difference of 2 points. Over the season if a top QB throws 35 TDs and a mid throws 17, that is only a difference of 36 points over the course of a season, or over 13 games: 2.76923. Why bump up QBs because of going from 4 to 6 points. It's only 27 rushing yards, which by you taking a QB, I will make up those points on RBs very easily ;-D


Not trying to argue... just trying to understand the math. 35 td X 6 pts = 210. 17 td X 6 pts = 102. Difference of 108. In a 4 per TD it's a difference of 72... so yeah, it's 36 points, or an additional 2.7 points per game... ON TOP of the other 72 points... 108 pts / 13 = 8.307 etc. So you're counting on the RB at the end of the 2nd to make up 83 rushing yards, or 2 dozen and a touchdown MORE than the RB available to you at round 3, in order to make that decision justifiable, right?

That's where I'm sure I can't agree as such a "de facto" sort of rule. It would depend on what's available in your 3rd round. I would venture a guess that there's less of a difference between the late 2nd and early 3rd round RBs available, such that one might not make up that additional 8 points per game.

On top of that, this isn't even including potential yardage differences between the QB that gets 35 TDs and the QB that gets 17 TDs... or accuracy, if interceptions hit you negative in your league. I think Brady or Manning probably SHOULD be taken by the end of the second round in most/all leagues.

And if there are top WRs going, or heaven forbid, OTHER QBs going in the first two rounds, it makes it even more likely that round 3 RBs will be of a higher caliber. What's at stake here is, after all, not the 5.6 points or the 8.3 points, pending scoring. It's the combination of output from both the RB2 AND the QB. So IMO the numbers you're offering are (unintentionally) misleading. I'll try to get some numbers from folks who drafted each way last year, and see what transpired. Could be interesting. I bet that at least half of the time, a second round Peyton and a 3rd round RB2 outscored an RB2 in the second round and a 17 td or less QB.
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