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Peyton Manning's Value

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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby dream_017 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:19 pm

FatFoot wrote:
dream_017 wrote:
FatFoot wrote:Yall crazy. :)

There are many many threads on it, so I'll just give teh quick cliff notes version. QB passing going from 4 to 6 is only a difference of 2 points. Over the season if a top QB throws 35 TDs and a mid throws 17, that is only a difference of 36 points over the course of a season, or over 13 games: 2.76923. Why bump up QBs because of going from 4 to 6 points. It's only 27 rushing yards, which by you taking a QB, I will make up those points on RBs very easily ;-D


Not trying to argue... just trying to understand the math. 35 td X 6 pts = 210. 17 td X 6 pts = 102. Difference of 108. In a 4 per TD it's a difference of 72... so yeah, it's 36 points, or an additional 2.7 points per game... ON TOP of the other 72 points... 108 pts / 13 = 8.307 etc. So you're counting on the RB at the end of the 2nd to make up 83 rushing yards, or 2 dozen and a touchdown MORE than the RB available to you at round 3, in order to make that decision justifiable, right?

That's where I'm sure I can't agree as such a "de facto" sort of rule. It would depend on what's available in your 3rd round. I would venture a guess that there's less of a difference between the late 2nd and early 3rd round RBs available, such that one might not make up that additional 8 points per game.

On top of that, this isn't even including potential yardage differences between the QB that gets 35 TDs and the QB that gets 17 TDs... or accuracy, if interceptions hit you negative in your league. I think Brady or Manning probably SHOULD be taken by the end of the second round in most/all leagues.

And if there are top WRs going, or heaven forbid, OTHER QBs going in the first two rounds, it makes it even more likely that round 3 RBs will be of a higher caliber. What's at stake here is, after all, not the 5.6 points or the 8.3 points, pending scoring. It's the combination of output from both the RB2 AND the QB. So IMO the numbers you're offering are (unintentionally) misleading. I'll try to get some numbers from folks who drafted each way last year, and see what transpired. Could be interesting. I bet that at least half of the time, a second round Peyton and a 3rd round RB2 outscored an RB2 in the second round and a 17 td or less QB.


I'm not going to get into it because there is no use. All I'm saying is that everyone sees 4 vs 6 passing TDs and thinks that it automatically is a QB league and they should be drafted early. In reality it is less than 3 points difference. All other stats remain the same, sure it is on top of the difference in yards and such, but the difference per game is only 2.7 and that is not enough justification for me. The TDs and scoring is the same for all QBs not just the top tier, so even Cutler gets 6 points per TD, not just Brady. Oh, and Brady will not throw 50 TDs again ;-D
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby JasonSeahorn » Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:20 pm

17 TDs is not a lot for a QB...last year, at least 16 QBs scored 18 TDs (Garrard and Kitna scored 18). It might be more fair to compare 35 TDs to the 22-25 range, since the 10th best QB should fall in that range. Last year Palmer had the 10th highest TD total with 26.
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby suppasonic » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:20 pm

I've really liked my mock draft teams where I have taken Peyton in the 2nd. With some of Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner, Reggie Bush Maroney and Graham available in round four, I've found it easy enough to go RB - QB - RB/WR -RB/WR
For example, one I had was

QB- Peyton
RB - SJax
RB- B Jacobs
WR - Steve Smith
WR - Brandon Marshall
RB/WR - Earnest Graham
TE - Shockey
DEF- Vikings
K - Crosby
BN - Julius Jones
BN - Bowe
BN - Garrard
BN - S. Young
BN- T. Bell
BN- P. Thomas
BN- S. Rice

It's not perfect, and I'd probably be happier just with Garrard as a starting QB and having an extra RB, but If Peyton was in late 2nd round I wouldnt have a problem grabbing him.
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Re: Peyton Manning's Value

Postby ivesaidway2much » Thu Aug 21, 2008 11:30 am

JasonSeahorn wrote:17 TDs is not a lot for a QB...last year, at least 16 QBs scored 18 TDs (Garrard and Kitna scored 18). It might be more fair to compare 35 TDs to the 22-25 range, since the 10th best QB should fall in that range. Last year Palmer had the 10th highest TD total with 26.
In 2005 and 2006, Eli Manning was tied for 4th in the league with 24 TD's. I'm not sure if last year was an aberration, but I don't think I would use it as a baseline for comparison.
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