Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Moderator: Football Moderators

Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:41 am

I'm really curious to see how people view these two backs. Out of the rookie class, these two backs look to have the highest chance of having an immediate impact. I know some are higher on Stewart and Mendy, but I just don't see it this year (or even next for that matter). Looking at the statistics from the last 100 or so MFL "real" drafts, Forte and Smith ADP's are 30th and 31st RB's drafted. I think that offers the possibility for a tremendous value at that point. The problem is, one will likely be a steal, the other a waste.

So what I want to know is who do you guys like, and more importantly, why?

Here's my take...

Kevin Smith - 6'1" 211 Central Florida

What I know... Carried the ball a whopping 450 times last year. Led the nation with 2,567 rushing yards (all be it for Central Florida). Shows good vision and cutting ability, combined with pretty decent speed.

What I like... Smith seems like he could be a productive NFL back. He has proven that he can carry a big workload, while staying away from major injuries. He shows good burst to and through the hole. The Lions look to be committed to running the ball. Smith's vision and feet should do well in the zone blocking scheme. The offense is good enough to keep defenses honest. Smith shouldn't see too many 8 man fronts.

What I don't like... The Detroit o-line is marginal at best. They're also a very big group, which could be a problem in a blocking scheme that requires speed. Not to mention it's that same groups first year in this system. The Detroit defense is pretty bad, which could lead to them abandoning the run early. They have a pretty tough schedule against the run (GBx2/CHIx2/MINx2/JAX/TB/TEN). Smith runs a bit upright and takes a lot of big hits. Pretty raw on catching out the backfield and pass protection.

Matt Forte - 6'2" 222 Tulane

What I know... Ran a pretty good 4.46 combine time for a guy his size. Speaking of size, he's a pretty big load at 6'2" 222. Has been pretty healthy for most of his career, besides a torn MCL/PCL the end of 2006.

What I like... Forte also seems like he can be a very productive NFL back. He has good initial quickness and adequate elusiveness for a back his size. He's one of the better rookies in pass protection, and shows a willingness to block. He's also one of the better receivers out of the backfield in this class. He could be a true every down back.

What I don't like...
The Chicago o-line is pretty poor. The offense as a whole is a mess. Forte is going to see 8 man fronts all year long. Forte has more capable back-up's in Chicago than Smith in Detroit. Although Forte is a good pass catching back, the Chicago system does not really utilize RB's in the passing game. Even with his skill-set, could he really produce in this offense?

What say you guys?
Image
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar
Matchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 407
Joined: 6 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby thriftyrocker » Tue Aug 19, 2008 1:56 am

I think both will disappoint and be inconsistent. I think Smith is more of a value considering how late he is going in rookie drafts, the offense is more potent, and there is less competition waiting in the wings (even Garrett Wolfe is more competition than Bell, let alone KJones).

Also, look at their college games against good competition. KSmith had some good games against top schools (over 100 against MSU and Texas, over 200 against NCSU). Forte pretty much did not (under 100 against LSU and MSU, even under 100 total yards).
Image
thriftyrocker
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 7323
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 18 May 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Bala Cynwyd, PA

Re: Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby FatFoot » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:36 am

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot wrote:Although Forte is a good pass catching back, the Chicago system does not really utilize RB's in the passing game. Even with his skill-set, could he really produce in this offense?

What say you guys?


That's not really true. The reason you get that impression is that Cedric Benson was a poor pass catching RB. Didn't Thomas Jones lead the team in receptions in his last year with the Bears? And there has already been evidence that they'll continue to throw to the RB this season, based on preseason.

You just have to remember who is throwing the ball (Orton's the starter now) and the fact that in 18 games, he's only had 2 200 yard passing games. It seems pretty clear to me that they're going to use Forte up, and then use Kevin Jones up, and then we'll get to see some more Adrian Peterson (the lesser) and Garrett Wolf (the microscopic).
FatFoot
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerEagle Eye
Posts: 3259
Joined: 28 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: In the Belly of the Beast

Re: Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:42 am

thriftyrocker wrote:I think both will disappoint and be inconsistent. I think Smith is more of a value considering how late he is going in rookie drafts, the offense is more potent, and there is less competition waiting in the wings (even Garrett Wolfe is more competition than Bell, let alone KJones).

Also, look at their college games against good competition. KSmith had some good games against top schools (over 100 against MSU and Texas, over 200 against NCSU). Forte pretty much did not (under 100 against LSU and MSU, even under 100 total yards).


I'm not even talking about rookie drafts. They're literally being taken the 30th and 31st RB's over-all in MFL real drafts (ADP). It's almost like people are sitting back waiting for someone to take one and then they take the other. At that point you're looking at backs like Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor, Justin Fargas, etc. All of those backs have considerably lower ceilings that either Forte or Smith.

FatFoot wrote:That's not really true. The reason you get that impression is that Cedric Benson was a poor pass catching RB. Didn't Thomas Jones lead the team in receptions in his last year with the Bears? And there has already been evidence that they'll continue to throw to the RB this season, based on preseason.

You just have to remember who is throwing the ball (Orton's the starter now) and the fact that in 18 games, he's only had 2 200 yard passing games. It seems pretty clear to me that they're going to use Forte up, and then use Kevin Jones up, and then we'll get to see some more Adrian Peterson (the lesser) and Garrett Wolf (the microscopic).


Ok, so as a Chicago homer, how do you feel then? Do you like Forte better than Smith?
Image
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar
Matchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 407
Joined: 6 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby JasonSeahorn » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:56 am

I like Kevin Smith by a small margin because his team can pass the ball better.

All Smith has to do to be a productive fantasy back is plunge into the endzone on a goal line carry when the Lions reach the red zone. Both of their YPCs will probably be 4.0 or lower, but the Lions can move the ball through the air, so Smith should get his at the goal line.
Image

Thanks to deluxe_247 for sig, he is welcome to sail with the Captain too!

I will win all of the fantasy cafe games.....next year
JasonSeahorn
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5309
Joined: 20 Oct 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Beantown, Taxachusetts

Re: Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby FatFoot » Tue Aug 19, 2008 11:58 am

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot wrote:
Ok, so as a Chicago homer, how do you feel then? Do you like Forte better than Smith?


Smith.

I don't know which one I prefer in terms of actual talent... but Forte's going to HAVE to lose carries to Kevin Jones at some point. Even if he IS a legitimate talent (which I am pretty sure we don't know how to spot in Chicago, at least on offense) the O Line is garbage, so he'd have to be a FREAK to really succeed. There's no passing game to keep opposing defenses honest. Smith will probably end up being the starter without serious competition, in the long run, and Kitna to Roy or CJ2 will at least keep defenses guessing a bit. Considering their O Line isn't really any better or worse than the Bears, I would sooner have Smith on my FF team.
FatFoot
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerEagle Eye
Posts: 3259
Joined: 28 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: In the Belly of the Beast

Re: Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby TGM » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:12 pm

I really don't have anything to add, as I really knew very little about either rookie RB. But, just wanted to comment...this was a very well written and informative thread. This is why I come here every season.

Thanks to all that contributed!
TGM
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 739
Joined: 2 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby wickerkat » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:45 pm

if all things are equal, you look at the qb - orton is NOT a deep threat, so they will stack the box - edge to ksmith, and more than a little one - i do think forte will do well, he looks great in preseason, and has lined gotten a LOT of passes dumped off to him as well as moving from the backfield up to the line

both are worth drafting and will make great bye weeks (check your schedule to see who has the easier week) or a #3 rb or depth, imo
wickerkat
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1680
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Chicago

Re: Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 1:32 pm

If I'm gambling on a rookie RB to produce, I pick Jonathon Stewart or Ray Rice.

Forte will have to compete with Kevin Jones at some point. Kyle Orton sucks. Brandon Lloyd, Devin Hester, Marty Booker, etc. suck. Bears offense will suck. Where is the upside?

Detroit cannot run the football. It's pretty simple for me. Why waste a 4th round pick on that nightmare?

All of these guys are going way too high this year based on "opportunity". If you want to pick someone based on opportunity gamble on McFadden in the 3rd round and hope they feed him like a top5 pick should be fed. Other than that... Stewart looks primed to take over the starting job at some point this year IMO despite how good Williams is looking in the preseason. I have been ending up with Ray Rice in a lot of drafts, tons of potential if something comes up with Mcgahee's return or there is another injury. Reminds me a whole lot of MJD's rookie season.
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Matt Forte vs. Kevin Smith

Postby SirPimpin08 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:42 pm

Kind of funny because I JUST drafted both back to back in that exact order lol
SirPimpin08
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 179
Joined: 19 Jun 2008
Home Cafe: Football


Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 16:10 hours
(and 42 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact