by AllDay » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:13 am
There's +'s and -'s to both.
Most people seem to prefer the middle picks so they don't have to wait the 18-20 picks while entire tiers of RB/WR/QB disappear. They can focus better having a sort of 'pace' to their picks and can better utilize the 'draft this guy and hope this guy falls' strategy' throughout the draft.
I kind of like being 2nd or next to last. That way I can sort of 'predict' what the guy is going to do with back to back picks.
I used that to draft the last guy in a tier of WR's over my 2nd RB in my one draft so far. I still got the guy I wanted as a 2nd RB then the my 2nd choice and worst case options were still there in the next rounds.
Looking back at my draft I came to the conclusion that my 5th/6th round decision to take Jennings over a RB really set me up to crush.
My team, picking 9th of 10 (QB 2RB 3WR TE FLX D K 2IDP 8Bench)
Brady
Lynch
Colston
Marshall
Jennings
Bush
Run DMC
Stewart
A Gonzalez
K Smith
V Davis
B Watson
....from there I drafted additional depth I am also pleased with (Watson/Perry, Crayton, DeJax) and my K, D, IDP players.
I drafted Favre in the 18th round like the day before he got traded to the Jets (just as the table-talk turned to Favre's situation).
Of course I could have been burned by a run on RB - instead only LenDale, Rudi, Fragile, and E Graham (I can see that one at least) were drafted between my RB2 and RB4 in rounds 6-8. Sure there was some draft luck, but had I passed on Jennings I would probably be less happy with my team.
I know I got some issues here and there, but I should be OK. For 'ignoring' RB I feel pretty darn good about it.
You can draft well from anywhere - but drafting at the ends can give you some additional time to plan between picks and take advantage of knowing others needs if they pick between your 1st and 2nd picks. Yeah, you can miss out on some runs - but those runs can also work in your favor.
This year I'd want a top 2 pick - if not I'd want a 8-10 pick. Most of the players between 3-10 are decision picks. SJax has the recently ended holdout, Addai has Manning's knee and his own worries, Westy's health, Brady or Moss (Brady injury is worry in addition to RB or Patriot decision), MB3's workload, Lynch's legal issues, Gore and SF in a Martz system, Portis and health, TO and TO.
Pick late maybe you get 2 of them. I could deal with that. I don't like the picks too far beyond that. I'd pass on RB until the MJD question came up then pass again for a couple rounds.
Other years that would change.
What Would Purple Jesus Do?