Teck wrote: but I just can't take the risk of having a guy who has one good year and 2 other capable backs (dunn, caddy) who are behind him.
I wouldn't call Caddy a capable back. Last year he only had about 50 yards a game. And the year before he had under 800 yrds and ONLY 1 TD (he had more fumbles - 3). Even if you look back to the year he "broke-out", his rookies season (w/ 1100+ yards), He did have a few games of 100+ yards, but he also had 5 games w/ 29 or less yards. Some guys have bad games, but come on - that's almost a third of the season.
As for Dunn, while he has been productive in recent years (although not so much last year - blame it on the QB situation), he has never had double digit TD's. His production has also declined the last few years, and he's pushing, what? 33 years old? Everybody knows his better days are behind him. And he's no redzone RB.
I don't see either Caddy or Dunn to be a threat for Graham in the redzone - or in stealing many carries. Graham will be the #1 back for TB this year, and with the ability to draft him in the 5th rd or later (I got him in the 7th rd as my 4th RB), he's going to give the owner solid numbers.
Also, putting up only 1 year of solid numbers doesn't seem to be hurting other guys draft positions. For example:
A.Peterson - 1 productive season and he's the #2 pick. Questionable QB situation too.
M. Lynch - the Buffalo offense is still struggling to find itself
R. Grant - No Favre = no production there (maybe a 15-20 RB at the end of the season)
B. Jacobs - he has more talent behind him than Graham IMO
I would say these guys are more likely to be a "bust" than Graham, basically because these guys are 1st rd - 2nd rd (w/ Jacobs going early 3rd) compared to Graham, who has been going late 5th - early 7th.
Just my opinion