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Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby LS2throwed » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:23 pm

biju wrote:Put me squarely in the Calvin Johnson corner. I think he'll outproduce Marshall, who I believe will actually regress a little this season. Also, I have both outproducing Santonio Holmes, but that's merely because I think the Steelers are going to have real O-line problems this year.

I think both players will do pretty well, but I have much higher expectations for Calvin Johnson and think he'll be the guy that makes that leap where people will start picking him in the early 2nd next year.

;-D




Whats your reasoning for Marshall regressing? He is entering his 3rd year, looked leaps and bounds better in the pre-season, as did Cutler...Why is it that CJ has this incredibly high ceiling but with Marshall its like he doesn't have any potential left? Marshall is a good bet to rack up 100 catches again, if his TD's increase from 7 to 10 he would of outscored Braylon Edwards last year and I think Marshall is a safe bet to get double digit TD's in his 3rd year....100/1200/12 looks like an ideal prediction for Marshall as his ceiling, even if we all do agree CJ2 will explode, I doubt he gets near 100 balls, more around 75, and the TD total could be anywhere from 10-16, but just as CJ2 is expected to increase the same should be said about Marshall.
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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby KELLYLEAK » Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:47 pm

Good topic- I had my 8 person draft Saturday and had the decision of Steve Smith, CJ, & Marshall. I went with Smith & CJ. Both are good picks with great upside. I haven't seen CJ but have read about him being the best wr prospect in 20 years- wanted to pick him last year but he went right before me. I drafted R Moss when he was a rookie and he did awesome- 2nd year for CJ without the back injury maybe he'll takeoff. Biggest concern is probably the Lions offensive line- that could be an issue.
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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby AllDay » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:03 am

I would draft Marshall over Calvin - but in this case (like many others) the thinking behind it is that maybe Calvin falls to me in the next round.

At this point in their careers I would rank Marshall first, but Calvin has a higher ceiling for success by almost all accounts.
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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby zoolander12 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:21 pm

so it looks pretty bad that I drafted Santonio ahead of Steve Smith, Marshall and Johnson? I think at the draft, Marshall was gonna be suspended 3 games, I dont know why I passed on Smith. But I atoned somewhat by having Johnson fall to me several picks after Marshall. I have Holmes and Marshall ranked in the same tier, Smith a tier above, and Johnson a tier below. Carolina got some new weapons at WR and RB, and it was probably why I passed on Smith, or maybe I had too much to drink. But do you all think that at the end of the season, all four guys will have similar production?
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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby KELLYLEAK » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:16 pm

If Delhomme & Smith stay healthy- I think Smith is a number 1 WR- and best of the group this year- but thats a big if with delhomme's arm. CJ's ceiling is the next highest this year but highest down the road i believe- he's bigger, faster, and has zero off the field issues. Marshall is a great prospect too- has a much better qb- he plays some easy teams but also plays Oak and SD twice- and they have tough pass defenses- & if he messes up off the field again he might get a 4 or 6 game suspension.

I'm in a ppr league so holmes was not high on my list even though he is talented. The steelers line will suffer losing all pro lineman faneca to free agency. I think big ben will be under major with that poor line and will either get hurt or have a subpar year. All have their pros and cons. Just my opinion- good luck
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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby Azrael » Tue Sep 02, 2008 12:17 pm

I think both Marshall and Calvin are a couple of those rare players that are "matchup immune", meaning you could still expect them to put up great #'s against good secondaries.
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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Sep 02, 2008 2:07 pm

i havent seen much of Marshall play, and i'm still a bit of a Lions homer (even though i think they go 3-13) so i would take CJ over Marshall, but it would be close

however, i think CJ has Top 5 WR potential while i've always thought of Marshall as more of a solid 10-15 type guy, but like i said, i havent seen much of him
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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Sep 02, 2008 2:42 pm

Seems like the Holmes, Calvin, S.Smith, Marshall range in the draft is a major sweet spot at WR. These are guys you can usually get at WR10+ off the board, but they all have top5 potential. I could see holding off on WRs entirely until the late 3rd round and picking up two of these guys as a 1/2 punch. With a combo of Calvin/Marshall I don't think you are losing ground at all to owners who took Wayne/Houshmanzedah type combo in rounds 2 and 3.

Personally, I rank the group of four: S.Smith, Calvin, Holmes, Marshall. But they are all very close and almost interchangeable, and the only sure thing about these rankings is that I feel good about each and every player. I have Smith first because like to draft for upside first and foremost. Delhomme has looked amazing this preseason and I have always thought that he is one of the best QBs in the NFC. Steve Smith has the potential to be a very special player ilke he was a couple years ago. With Delhomme playing well, Smith can grab those nice passes down the field and then he also has the ability to turn small plays into long touchdowns through his own talent. We've already seen it happen once (twice if you count the fumble) during the preseason. If you've ever rostered a guy that is scoring every week and putting up 100+ yards every week, you know how valuable that type of production is and how many "decent" players that is worth in trade value. You could package 2 or 3 "top" players and be hard pressed to pry away a guy like Steve Smith from his owner when he is on his game. I think Smith is already downgraded fairly heavily for the 2 game suspension because otherwise we are looking at a guy who is drafted as a top10 or even top5 in most leagues.

Calvin Johnson may be the ultimate in risk/reward this season. But I think I've seen maybe 3 or 4 WRs in my lifetime that have displayed his type of natural ability in the NFL. Just from the limited amount of playing time I've seen in the past year and a half against NFL talent... anyone who has seen this guy makes a few plays can see the huge potential there. In my view, Kitna has demonstrated the past five seasons that he has what it takes to take a fantasy WR to the promised land. He has made some very good WRs into very good fantasy WRs, and he has the ability I think to turn a stud WR into a stud fantasy WR. Calvin Johnson will fit that bill this season. I think Calvin has the most potential in the group outside of Steve Smith to turn into one of those untradeable players that come around every once in awhile. He certainly is the least experienced of the bunch and by far shown the least production wise, but it is difficult to put even Smith ahead of him when you consider the suspension.

Marshall himself has looked very good, but he hasn't blown me away like Calvin or even Smith when I watch him play. The guy is more of the TO/Boldin type workman-like WR that could either reach then next level or not. The guy doesn't blow by people or just dominate them on the field, but he has some amazing open field moves and sure hands. Last season he was great for where he was drafted and I think you will still get some very good value where you draft him this year as well. The reduction in suspension for Marshall is a big positive for him, but he is still missing game 1. That one game where you plug in who knows what could be the difference between a championship and missing the playoffs (ask the Chargers about how holding out Gates went a few years back). And for all that Marshall did last year, he wasn't a Steve Smith type difference maker. He still has a ways to go in that department and I think we need to see some development from Cutler before we can consider this guy a "stud". That's where the decision comes into play whether you want to gamble on a difference maker like Calvin Johnson early, or if you want to "settle" on a guy like Brandon Marshall that should be very very good which a chance to be great. Personal preference more than anything, I think you are already ahead of the curve if you have narrowed down your choices to these two players earlier in the draft than most would consider them.

Personally, in competitive leagues and smaller leagues, I believe you need to take real risks to give yourself a better chance to win in a hobby that relies so much on chance. Picking up that one player who turns into a stud in the first few rounds or even the middle rounds is the difference between winning a championship and missing the playoffs. But with this type of decision, all of these players fit that particular bill. I think any of these players could easily turn into a stud and surpass their draft positions quite easily. The question becomes which of these players will become the next superstud. I don't think you go wrong with any of them.
Last edited by Kensat30 on Tue Sep 02, 2008 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby bobbing_headz » Tue Sep 02, 2008 2:47 pm

KELLYLEAK wrote:If Delhomme & Smith stay healthy- I think Smith is a number 1 WR- and best of the group this year- but thats a big if with delhomme's arm. CJ's ceiling is the next highest this year but highest down the road i believe- he's bigger, faster, and has zero off the field issues. Marshall is a great prospect too- has a much better qb- he plays some easy teams but also plays Oak and SD twice- and they have tough pass defenses- & if he messes up off the field again he might get a 4 or 6 game suspension.

I'm in a ppr league so holmes was not high on my list even though he is talented. The steelers line will suffer losing all pro lineman faneca to free agency. I think big ben will be under major with that poor line and will either get hurt or have a subpar year. All have their pros and cons. Just my opinion- good luck


Smith won't be the #1 WR. I've had my hopes up for 2 years and he's let me down both times. He's too inconsistent to be top dog and the Carolina passing attack isn't good enough. Really Smith is the only threat on the team. Panthers should be more of a run-first offense anyways.

As for the CJ/Marshall debate, I've probably already said something on it but until Williams is out of Detroit or is at least officially passed by CJ he won't outproduce Marshall.
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Re: Brandon Marshall > Calvin Johnson?

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Sep 02, 2008 3:01 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:
KELLYLEAK wrote:If Delhomme & Smith stay healthy- I think Smith is a number 1 WR- and best of the group this year- but thats a big if with delhomme's arm. CJ's ceiling is the next highest this year but highest down the road i believe- he's bigger, faster, and has zero off the field issues. Marshall is a great prospect too- has a much better qb- he plays some easy teams but also plays Oak and SD twice- and they have tough pass defenses- & if he messes up off the field again he might get a 4 or 6 game suspension.

I'm in a ppr league so holmes was not high on my list even though he is talented. The steelers line will suffer losing all pro lineman faneca to free agency. I think big ben will be under major with that poor line and will either get hurt or have a subpar year. All have their pros and cons. Just my opinion- good luck


Smith won't be the #1 WR. I've had my hopes up for 2 years and he's let me down both times. He's too inconsistent to be top dog and the Carolina passing attack isn't good enough. Really Smith is the only threat on the team. Panthers should be more of a run-first offense anyways.

As for the CJ/Marshall debate, I've probably already said something on it but until Williams is out of Detroit or is at least officially passed by CJ he won't outproduce Marshall.


Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme have been the most prolific QB/WR combo in the NFL for the past 3 years when they have been on the field together.

They've played nearly 30 full games together as QB/WR since 2005, and here are Steve Smith's stats in those games.

198 receptions
3028 total yards.
33 TDs.

If we prorate these numbers from THIRTY games into a 16 game season we end up with:

106 receptions
1615 total yards
18 TDs

This is the type of production you are getting from Steve Smith when Jake Delhomme is QBing. The real risk you run with Steve Smith is if he or Jake Delhomme were to get hurt. Both players have been banged up in recent seasons to different degrees, but the one season where they both made it through healthy, Steve Smith had 1600/13 and was the #1 fantasy WR in the league.
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