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Rudi's impact on Smith

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Re: Rudi's impact on Smith

Postby CJB » Mon Sep 01, 2008 10:03 pm

I am clearly somewhat biased since I drafted Rudi before he got cut, but I think there is a chance for him to seriously impact Smith's value for several reasons:
- the Lions signed him and cut Bell right away, so they must feel Rudi will be healthy enough to play week 1, though clearly not with a full workload...
- the espn take on the signing suggests the Lions were very impressed, and suggests Rudi will have a shot at the starter's job at some point...John Clayton's analysis is generally accurate and realistic:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3564050
- I have yet to read a glowing review of Smith this preseason (although the whole DET run game has been given thumbs down so far)
- I just think Rudi has been unfairly lumped in with Shaun Alexander as a guy with tons of mileage who finally fell off the cliff...but SA had 5 years of high mileage (average 330 carries; 350 and 70 in last 2 good years) and then he went in the crapper with a laundry list of injuries...Rudi had 3 years of heavy use followed by a single terrible season where he had a specific issue that hampered him...
- to me, the better comparison in terms of amount of mileage at the time when people wrote him off is Jamal Lewis, which is why I think there is still something left in Rudi's tank...

Obviously, the fresh young draft pick who has been given the starter's job has to be the favourite right now...but I think IF Rudi is healthy (as the Lions clearly believe he will be by Sunday), then he has to be considered a serious threat to Smith's fantasy value...
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Re: Rudi's impact on Smith

Postby LS2throwed » Tue Sep 02, 2008 8:42 am

Actually I think Tatum was more of a threat then Rudi will or would be...Tatum ran this ZBS before and was very familiar with it, has speed Smith doesn't have, and he has an ability to play on 3rd downs, you can question how good he is at either of those and obviously not good because he was cut but thats what he brought to the table...I feel like if Rudi was healthy enough or was running good enough for a RBBC then Cincy would of shared the rock with him and Perry, and Rudi is certainly no 3rd down back no shape or form...That line is terrible, that doesn't bode well for Rudi at all, he's just like any other backup in the NFL that only has an impact if the guy before him gets hurt, I'm almost certain Smith will look 3x as good as him in the same backfield at this point.
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Re: Rudi's impact on Smith

Postby 34=Sweetness » Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:18 am

Smith has to be really impressive the first few weeks to convince coaching to give him the ball. If he struggles early, Rudi is going to take more and more carries.

Luckily, they have Atlanta, Green Bay, and San Francisco to start off the season, and you can probably run pretty well on Atlanta and SF. Still, I'd be worried if I was a Smith owner.
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Re: Rudi's impact on Smith

Postby moochman » Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:50 am

I would have to worry that Rudi may be done as a starting RB in this league. His injuries have probably robbed him of that half-step needed to get through the hole, and the Lions O-line doesn't open holes well. I would be a bit suprised if he returns to anything close to his form of 2006. He may turn into a goalline vulture, but barring a complete resurrection Rudi may be another version of Tatum Bell. Come to Detroit and disappear.
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Re: Rudi's impact on Smith

Postby CJB » Tue Sep 02, 2008 11:45 am

People keep referring to all of Rudi's injuries...maybe I'm out of the loop, but hasn't he only had one injury (the hammy)? I know it has been a recurring problem for the past year, but are there other injuries I'm not aware of? Assuming he finally heals up (as Detroit must think he will) is he any different than any other 28-yr-old RB who pulled a groin muscle or sprained an ankle? I don't know why people assume that a healthy Rudi has lost a step...we just don't know yet...
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Re: Rudi's impact on Smith

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Sep 02, 2008 11:50 am

I'm in the camp that says Rudi was cut more for salary reasons than a big decline in playing ability due to the hamstring.

That said, I think Rudi Johnson is a much bigger threat to have an impact on Kevin Smith than Tatum Bell. And with the situation in Detroit the way it is, I have a hard time seeing Kevin Smith establish himself as a featured RB unless he blows up consistently in the first few games of the year. And even then, how does Rudi work himself into playing time? Will he be a goalline RB like TJ Duckett? I have to believe that Rudi is getting at least a few carries per game there after a few weeks, but where will those carries come?

I'm not a big believer in Kevin Smith or Detroit running game. I think this signing could drastically cap Kevin Smith's upside... and the floor was already pretty damn low.
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Re: Rudi's impact on Smith

Postby LS2throwed » Tue Sep 02, 2008 12:44 pm

Kevin Smith is a much better runner then some people around here choose to give him credit for, which makes me think those people haven't really seen him play other then a few highlights and checking the stat box...As slow as Rudi is he won't be making anything happen with minimal blocking, Smith is going to make Rudi look alot worse.
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Re: Rudi's impact on Smith

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Sep 02, 2008 2:00 pm

Detroit's O-line is teh suck, and i think Rudi is a guy who's only as good as his O-line, so i wouldnt expect much, but i would expect it to make Smith a less attractive option now
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