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Week 1 Survival Pick

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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby ckl81 » Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:23 pm

I'd be careful of the Chargers---lately their run D has not looked good at all. Granted, Jamal Williams hasn't been playing, but he's getting old, our best run stopping ILB Cooper is out, and the 2-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart could cause a lot of damage. They won't need Steve Smith in this game to put up a scare on SD. I'm a Chargers fan, and I'd stay away from them this week....maybe it's just nerves though.
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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby bobbing_headz » Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:29 pm

ckl81 wrote:I'd be careful of the Chargers---lately their run D has not looked good at all. Granted, Jamal Williams hasn't been playing, but he's getting old, our best run stopping ILB Cooper is out, and the 2-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart could cause a lot of damage. They won't need Steve Smith in this game to put up a scare on SD. I'm a Chargers fan, and I'd stay away from them this week....maybe it's just nerves though.


I think all the Chargers have to do is stack the box and they should be fine. There's no way the Panthers run game is as good as it was against the Skins and a bunch of it came against backups. Even if the Panthers manage to run well, the Panthers D isn't good enough to stop the San Diego offense. Couple that with superior special teams and I think they got this game in the bag. Plus they're at home.
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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby steelerfan513 » Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:41 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:
steelerfan513 wrote:Agreed, taking the Jets is suicide. Favre may not have a good hold on the offense yet, you don't know how the new additions to the offensive line will work out, and it's a divisional road game against a Miami team that definitely got better in the offseason. I wouldn't be in any way surprised if the Dolphins won and am actually picking them to beat the Jets in Matchup Meltdown this week.

The three relatively safe picks that I wouldn't regret saving for later on (in no particular order):

- San Diego: bobbing_headz put it pretty well
- Pittsburgh: They've got a brutal schedule, so their home game against the Texans is one of the easiest matchups they'll have this season. Now might be the best time to use them because the only time you might want to use them later is with some home divisional matchups. Fairly risky because Houston is a good team, but Pittsburgh should be able to take care of business.
- Philadelphia: Pretty much the same as the Steelers, except their matchup is probably a little bit safer b/c it's the Rams.

You could also go with New England or Indy if you want to feel 100% safe week one while sacrificing a big chip for later in the year.


I'd actually be careful of the Houston matchup. Houston is a heavily underrated team, especially their offense. With both Schaub and Andre together they have the potential to put up a lot of points. Plus the Steelers probably have the most overrated defense in the league. Last few years they've been losing quite a few pieces. Terrible secondary if you ask me. I get the feeling that the game is gonna be a shoot-out. I'd wait a week to see how the Steelers really are playing.


I disagree about the defense point. I do grow frustrated with the Steelers' defense at times, especially the secondary, but the fact is they've ranked in the top five in total yards, rushing yards, passing yards, and points allowed for the last few years pretty consistently. Regardless of how I feel during games, they get the job done for the most part. I also don't understand what you're saying with the "lost pieces." Now whether we'll see the Steelers defense from September to November last year or the defense from December remains to be seen.

I don't dispute that Houston is an underrated team. They have some very talented players, especially Schaub and Andre Johnson on offense. But the Steelers have a pretty good big-play receiver-quarterback combo themselves with Roethlisberger and Holmes, and they have a running game and a good overall defense to back it up. Bottom line: it would be a pretty big shock to see them lose this Sunday, and this is one of the easier games on their schedule.
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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby gmoney973 » Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:37 pm

what about indy? im not liking there 2-5 week matchups anyway
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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby bobbing_headz » Tue Sep 02, 2008 11:48 pm

gmoney973 wrote:what about indy? im not liking there 2-5 week matchups anyway


I'd probably save them for when they play the Ravens in week 6.
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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby MrTwo94 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:44 am

Seems like a good time to use the Bengals. They've got a tough schedule and could be shaky but against Flacco? No brainer.
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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby bobbing_headz » Wed Sep 03, 2008 9:16 am

MrTwo94 wrote:Seems like a good time to use the Bengals. They've got a tough schedule and could be shaky but against Flacco? No brainer.


It's pretty risky to play them. No doubt the Ravens are pretty bad but I'd hold off on the Bengals for now. It's true though that their schedule is probably bad enough that you may never use them again.
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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Wed Sep 03, 2008 9:29 am

Give me the Eagles at home vs the Rams. There have been reports that S-Jax might not be 100% ready to go (and I don't see how we could be ready since he missed most of the pre-season)...so the Eagles should have it fairly easy week 1.
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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby spodog » Wed Sep 03, 2008 9:35 am

After years of doing these types of pools, I can assure you that you should be scared to death of Week 1. The first week of the season is always full of strange occurrences and games that don't go as they should.

The only safe bet is to go ahead and blow your NE pick over Kansas City, and don't look back. Those of you who try and get cute with a Division game in Week 1 or feel that picking a Rodgers-led GB team in Week 1 are likely to get burned.

Yes, you'll feel like you burned up a safe NE pick early, but it's better to feel that way than to be eliminated and watching the entire contest all season from the sidelines. I know.
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Re: Week 1 Survival Pick

Postby Shock6822 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 10:11 am

I'm going with the Pats or Indy, because teams seem to start out the gate so random. I still remember getting burned week 2 or whatever it was in that Bengals/Browns game, as did half of the survivor community. Give me my safe pick now, let me see how teams are really playing for a couple weeks.
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