knapplc wrote:So, what's the magic combination? I've had LT2 plus top WRs and a pretty decent QB and RB2 for years, and I've never won anything, yet I hear about people winning their leagues based on LT2 or Brady or Manning, depending on their season. How many players must you have to guarantee finishing "in the money?"
Unfortunately - one lucky one. I don't prescribe to the 'FFL is all dumb luck' theory, but like anything, luck does play a big role. You can put yourself in a great position - give yourself great odds, in honor of the WSOP - but in the end, you have to either get lucky or avoid bad luck. An ill-timed injury, a bad player on the other team having a career game, etc... Those things seem to determine championships in fantasy leagues every year.
All you can do is get yourself in the playoffs every year and give yourself the best chance to win. In this game, you are like a GM or coach - not a player. You can't run or pass or score...you can only put the best roster together that you can and hope they perform to your expectations.
A lot like poker - if the game could be dominated by those who were best, and leave the lesser guys no chance - it wouldn't be popular. Fantasy football is popular because any jerk can meddle with a draft and get lucky. Chance is just part of the game. The key is to give yourself a 30% chance of winning rather than a 5% chance of winning.
There is really only 2 players in the league right now that I think could basically piggy-back your team into the playoffs. (Which is LT & Brady)
Having one of these players lays an amazing foundation to build around. On one of their "elite" weeks, they are capable of matching 2,3, or even 4 of your opponents players production. Combined with your own players chipping in here, and there... Brady, or LT's production should easily take you into the playoffs.
Luck is a huge factor. Last year, I got the second most points in the league 3 weeks in a row and lost all three weeks to the team with the most points. I ended up finishing 6-6 (we had a bye week due to odd number of teams) and missing the playoffs, despite accumulating the second-most total points in the league for the season.
With so much luck involved, there are certainly no sure things and no guarantees whatsoever. All you can do is make the best moves that put you in the best position to win and watch how the ball bounces.
RWLongy4 wrote: In my most competitive league who wins the free agency is far more important than the draft. Everyone is going to have 2-4 elite players... its being able be to pick the ryan grants of last year or the ruben droughns' of a couple years back that put you over the top. I would say there aren't any magic combinations and those people that you are hearing about are in 8 team public yahoo leagues
I'd much rather have a team with a solid everything than LT and Brady and nothing else. Probably why I enjoy the last spot in the draft. Fun question though... could be an interesting debate. '
I agree with this, if you jump on a Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham before the pack, and you already have a strong team, that probably puts you over the top...Even still nothing is guaranteed, the championship week your studs could have a bad game and explode week 17 when the season is over...I think if you build around a few elite players, you can put yourself in the playoffs, but even then anything goes.
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I highly doubt it. The year that Peyton Manning through 49 TDs, for example, the guy in my league who had him came in 10th place - there were a couple of times that he didn't set his lineup, but he did at least make an attempt at a draft and picked guys up on waivers sometimes. While you only need to have one real "stud" (and it's possible to get by without any), it takes multiple decent players to have a good season in most leagues.
I think that every year ONE player can guarantee the successful season, problem is you don't know who said player will be. I mean this is a cherry picking to the highest extreme, but I think people can see the generalized truth. But if you consider the year the warner was awesome, portis' break out, gannon, mcnabb/westbrook, mannings record year, brady's year, moss' year, welker, ... all of those guys or types of players were so disproportionate relative to the cost of acquisition, that it guaranteed a successful season.
The more I think about this for both football and baseball, the more I think that the first round in drafts can be somewhat rote. We have our disagreements, sure, but does it matter so much? It's usually the same cast of characters. While most of the guys I mentioned were names, with the exception of manning, none of the real difference makers seemed to be first rounders. Makes me wonder that I should absoloutely study players who comprise rounds 2-6, those seem to be the killer rounds to me in various drafts. The guys are almost always good, just have some knocks. but they have the skills to utterly explode too.
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