One of the ESPN guys (Nate R) said Welker's value drops from WR2 to WR3, but Moss WR1 value stays the same. I can see that for Moss. But I want to believe that Welker's value remains the same.
Maybe because I am trying to acquire him in a trade, but I have not pulled the trigger yet and would like to hear what other Cafers think about his value.
mikus wrote:This is a question I would like answered as well.
One of the ESPN guys (Nate R) said Welker's value drops from WR2 to WR3, but Moss WR1 value stays the same. I can see that for Moss. But I want to believe that Welker's value remains the same.
Maybe because I am trying to acquire him in a trade, but I have not pulled the trigger yet and would like to hear what other Cafers think about his value.
I was offered a trade for him last week that the guy hasn't pulled back and I want to jump on it before he does .
I think Welker's value will still be around the same as it was last year. Not sure he'll surpass 100 receptions again but I think he still has legitimate value as a #2 WR. Chances are that New England will become a more conservative football team and run the ball more than they've done in the past and I think Welker will get a bunch of looks on short routes because that seems more like his forte.
Fantasy owners will believe that Welker's fantasy value will take a hit with Brady gone, but I expect it to go up. Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will find creative ways to get the ball in Welker and Moss' hands, and while I wouldn't expect the Patriots' offense to be anywhere near last season, I believe fantasy owners have an excellent buy-low opportunity here to acquire Wes Welker for a lot less than he is worth.
I think the real question here is whether Cassel and Welker can get their timing down. A lot of Welker's receptions last year were on quick slant timing routes, if Cassel can do those passes as well as Brady does then I could see Welker's value staying even or even going up. We'll really have to see next week after Cassel gets a week with the first-team offense.
Remember that Welker put up numbers in Miami with... uh... who was the QB there in 2006? Joey Harrington?
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A lot of Welker's value, in my opinion, was due to the fact that Brady loved the Slot...it was his safety net, his security blanket, all the way back to Troy Brown when he first became a starter. Anytime Brady needed whatever, he looked to the slot, and more often than not got it. It was the reason why I was so high on Welker when he went to NE last year, and also the reason why (unfortunately) I think Welker's value just nosedived.
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." -- Voltaire
Welker is one of the best short yardage receivers in the league, so I think he's still going to get a lot of safety passes and dump-offs along with the slants. I don't think he'll be as good as last year but I don't think he's going to go into obscurity. I'm more worried about Moss to tell you the truth.
Without Tom Brady, I think this guy could end up barely rosterable except in PPR leagues.
I'm thinking a close comparison to Welker could be Mushin Muhammad.
PS- Anyone who thinks Welker's value goes up with Brady out is a moron IMO. Target that guy in your league in a trade and get what you can while you still can. Brady is/was a master of buying time in the pocket and allowing Wes Welker to run past his guy and get open. Cassel is much more likely to forcefeed Randy Moss than he is to wait for Welker to run past his guy or check down to his 2nd or 3rd read. Chances are Welker averages like 5/50 from here on out.
As was said before, the slot is quite a bit of timing and without proper timing I think Welker's numbers could take a considerable hit. I also agree that Moss' value doesn't change to lower than WR1, but his overall value takes a hit as he goes from consensus #1 WR to maybe a mid to low end #1 WR at best. His value was highly tied to the TDs and I don't think the Pats are going to score anywhere near as many now.
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by Phatferd » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:21 pm 
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