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W. Welker's value?

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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby u_fig_eater » Tue Sep 09, 2008 1:37 am

I'm a Welker owner, and I'm not sure. I have a hard time believing his value goes up, though. The one thing I can think of is that he might become Cassel's safety valve, offsetting any loss in production that would otherwise happen.
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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby 2ksports » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:09 am

I think Moss takes a huge hit. The only good thing is the O-Line will keep NE WRs viable.
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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby AllDay » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:33 am

I think it goes down. WR2 to WR 3 value sounds about right.

I'm not real convinced the Pats will play that much differently than they did with Brady. I just think there is so much confidence in the team structure from scouts and coaches to players.

I wouldn't blame them if they did run a lot more. That's a legit argument this year even with Brady. Maybe they change things significantly but I get the feeling they enjoy being a little arrogant about their system and will just continue on business as usual.

I wouldn't expect business to be as good as usual - especially for Welker.

I downgrade Moss as well. He's no longer top 2-3 WR material IMO - and that puts him into a much deeper tier of WR. This shouldn't come as a shock to most - but he can fluctuate a bit in his output ('05-'06). Don't be surprised to see that playout once again over the course of the season.
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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby Kilroy » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:57 am

Kensat30 wrote:He was overrated WITH Tom Brady.

Without Tom Brady, I think this guy could end up barely rosterable except in PPR leagues.

I'm thinking a close comparison to Welker could be Mushin Muhammad.

PS- Anyone who thinks Welker's value goes up with Brady out is a moron IMO. Target that guy in your league in a trade and get what you can while you still can. Brady is/was a master of buying time in the pocket and allowing Wes Welker to run past his guy and get open. Cassel is much more likely to forcefeed Randy Moss than he is to wait for Welker to run past his guy or check down to his 2nd or 3rd read. Chances are Welker averages like 5/50 from here on out.

2008 projection:
70/900/5


70/900/5 is a fair bit better than "barely rosterable". It's more or less what he put up in Miami, and more or less what I'd expect, but that's still WR4 numbers if you're deep and WR3 if you're not.

FWIW, your assertion that Welker needs more "time" to get open than Moss is just bunk. Welker's value lies in his route-running, his ability to be where he's supposed to be when he's supposed to be there. If Cassel's smart he'll use that instead of trying to force it downfield, but given his lack of experience I have my doubts as to whether he can.
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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby kemper5 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 9:04 am

I think Welker goes to a #2, maybe 3 type WR now..I see a 875 Yard, 78 Catch, 4-6 TD type year ahead..
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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby mikus » Sun Sep 14, 2008 7:03 pm

RotoWorld wrote:Wes Welker caught seven passes for 72 yards in a Week 2 win.

The Patriots used a short passing attack against the Jets and that bodes well for a slot receiver like Welker. Even after Tom Brady's season-ending injury, Welker still has WR2/3 value in points per reception formats.


I thought Welker was really solid today, and came up one-yard short of a touchdown. I do not think he has lost any value at all, they are using him the same as they were with Brady.
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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby AllDay » Mon Sep 15, 2008 5:00 am

Well Welker did put up solid but unspectacular stats.

I don't know if that is the biggest thing people should be taking from this game, though.

Moss had 2 catches for 22 yards.

The Pats passing game is not even close to what it was with Brady, obviously. To me that still affects Welker's value negatively.

He scored 8 TD's last year, and I'd be surprised if he hit that now. I'd say he's closer to 5 - but a lot can still happen.

If Moss doesn't get more involved in things than he was today there might be trouble ahead with him. Maybe he is past all that. I think he was just satisfied last year and his behavior reflected that. He might not be so satisfied this year.
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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby Kensat30 » Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:48 pm

Moss has good reason to be upset. Cassel missed him on a wide open 50 yard touchdown.

That would have salvaged a day where Moss had exactly 3 balls thrown his way. Cassel didn't even look Moss' direction for quarters at a time. This guy better learn how to use Randy Moss and quick, because it's not every week that your D is going to be able to steamroll the opposing offense into submission.
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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby JasonSeahorn » Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:50 pm

When Brady first started playing they had him do a lot of dink-and-dunk passing. Cassel will be made to do the same until they really trust him to control the offense on his own.
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Re: W. Welker's value?

Postby knapplc » Mon Sep 15, 2008 1:07 pm

If that keeps up, how long until Moss goes ballistic and Bad Randy comes back? He's been far too good for far too long if you ask me. There's that whole leopards and spots thing going on here. I keep waiting for him to blow up at someone.
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