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Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby bobbing_headz » Fri Sep 12, 2008 2:05 am

The first week is probably one of the worst times to buy low/sell high, especially if you're playing in a competitive league and therefore most of the advice here, while insightful, is pointless. Any smart owner is not gonna change his perceptions of a guy's value wildly after 1 week. Like has been mentioned, you're likely not gonna be able to swing Turner for a 1st rounder because of 1 week. Same goes for buying low on a guy like Edwards or Holt.

The trick to this is waiting until a guy's value drops/peaks to the max. This of course can be very tricky but I'd say wait until at least week 3 or 4. As an example, last year I was able to swing Eli Manning for Drew Brees last year after week 5 when Brees had thrown only 1 TD and 9 picks. You guys know what happened after that. There was no way I would be able to get a deal that good in week 1 or probably 2 or 3.

Be patient my friends. 1 week is too early to start buying/selling if you want real value.
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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Yoda » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:24 am

biju wrote:
Yoda wrote:Some people obviously do not understand the meaning of selling high. Selling high means you are trading a player who is exceeding expectations. A guy like Turner is a classic sell high. He could turn out to be the next Walter Payton or the next LT but what are the chances of that happening to a career backup who is already 26 1/2 yo? He is very talented and should have a better year than most expectations but he has yet to play a full season as a featured back and coming off a monster game 1 against a horrible team. If you can get a first round pick then you should be very happy. It's only 1 game.


The folks who are saying "if you can get a first rounder for him and don't, you're fools" are deluding yourselves. Who is going to pay like that for him? Or really, even pay much more than they would have before week 1? You can talk about the "classic sell high" all you want but I'll bet if you ask Turner owners what they've been offered so far it wouldn't by much more than a WR2 or maybe a low, low end WR1 from someone hurting at RB. Really, try to find out what they've been offered. I think there is too much trade gap between sides because nobody--not even Turner's mom--thought he would run for 220 yards and 2 TDs his first game with the Falcons.

No self-respecting owner or competitive league is going to offer up a "true" first rounder (and by that I mean the 6 or 7 guys who really deserve to be in the first round) for Turner right now. You guys can write all the theory you want and put it in practice with the Yahoo free leagues where it might actually work.


Reading some of these posts there are plenty of believers out there that Turner will be a 1st round pick next year. Find that person.

Are you saying that if you own Turner then you should not shop him around to see what you can get? :-?
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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby 204BC » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:32 am

bobbing_headz wrote:The first week is probably one of the worst times to buy low/sell high, especially if you're playing in a competitive league and therefore most of the advice here, while insightful, is pointless. Any smart owner is not gonna change his perceptions of a guy's value wildly after 1 week. Like has been mentioned, you're likely not gonna be able to swing Turner for a 1st rounder because of 1 week. Same goes for buying low on a guy like Edwards or Holt.

The trick to this is waiting until a guy's value drops/peaks to the max. This of course can be very tricky but I'd say wait until at least week 3 or 4. As an example, last year I was able to swing Eli Manning for Drew Brees last year after week 5 when Brees had thrown only 1 TD and 9 picks. You guys know what happened after that. There was no way I would be able to get a deal that good in week 1 or probably 2 or 3.

Be patient my friends. 1 week is too early to start buying/selling if you want real value.


I have to disagree. An example just off the top of my head is Ronald Curry from '07. I'm sure this board was buzzing about his sell high value after week 1 last year and I'm sure that there were people saying "too early to sell high". I'd look it up by I'm too dang lazy to go digging through last year's threads. If you want to take the time, I'm sure it's there.

One thing I will look up, because it is easy to find stats on nfl.com, is what Curry did last year. In week 1 he had 10 receptions for 133 yards and a TD. If you multiply that by 16 games he should have finished the year with 160 catches for 2128 yards and 16 TDs. Obviously nobody is going to do that and you would expect a drop off from that performance, so let's say that we could assume 6 catches a game for 80 yards and .5 TD's a week, that would have brought him to 96 catches for 1,280 yds and 8 TD's. His actual total for '07? 55 receptions, 717 yds and 4TD's. If you had sold him high in week 1 last year you would have been laughing all the way to the bank. By week 3 or 4, it was obvious that he wasn't as good as that first game and there is no way you could have pulled the deal off.
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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Yoda » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:41 am

Just to give you an idea, look at some of the Week 1 RB leaders from 2007 and how many of those guys actually maintained their pace for the entire year:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/weekly?ye ... &type=rush

This isn't to say that Turner or Forte or anyone else can't be a top player but there is a good chance that their value is at its peak.
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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby bobbing_headz » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:06 am

Yoda wrote:Just to give you an idea, look at some of the Week 1 RB leaders from 2007 and how many of those guys actually maintained their pace for the entire year:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/weekly?ye ... &type=rush

This isn't to say that Turner or Forte or anyone else can't be a top player but there is a good chance that their value is at its peak.


I think I didn't explain myself well because you misunderstand me. I'm not talking about the players actual value, you're right there's a good chance some players have already hit their low/max. What I'm talking about is how other owners look at a players value. That part hasn't changed enough for you to generally get really good deals in trades.
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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Yoda » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:11 am

bobbing_headz wrote:
Yoda wrote:Just to give you an idea, look at some of the Week 1 RB leaders from 2007 and how many of those guys actually maintained their pace for the entire year:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/weekly?ye ... &type=rush

This isn't to say that Turner or Forte or anyone else can't be a top player but there is a good chance that their value is at its peak.


I think I didn't explain myself well because you misunderstand me. I'm not talking about the players actual value, you're right there's a good chance some players have already hit their low/max. What I'm talking about is how other owners look at a players value. That part hasn't changed enough for you to generally get really good deals in trades.


I'm not saying that you can definitely move Turner for a 1st round pick but it certainly doesn't hurt to shop around to see what you can get for him.
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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby waterproof » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:53 am

Yoda wrote:Just to give you an idea, look at some of the Week 1 RB leaders from 2007 and how many of those guys actually maintained their pace for the entire year:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/weekly?ye ... &type=rush


You can say that about a lot of weeks. The top 3 in week 5 2007 were:
1. Michael Turner, SDG
2. Kenton Keith, IND
3. Ronnie Brown, MIA

Opps ;-)
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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby knapplc » Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:40 am

waterproof wrote:
Yoda wrote:Just to give you an idea, look at some of the Week 1 RB leaders from 2007 and how many of those guys actually maintained their pace for the entire year:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/weekly?ye ... &type=rush


You can say that about a lot of weeks. The top 3 in week 5 2007 were:
1. Michael Turner, SDG
2. Kenton Keith, IND
3. Ronnie Brown, MIA

Opps ;-)

Ya gotta love a football debate by baseball guys. :-D

Keep it coming, guys. The Football Cafe is your oyster. Carpe diem. ;-D
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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Yoda » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:41 pm

knapplc wrote:
waterproof wrote:
Yoda wrote:Just to give you an idea, look at some of the Week 1 RB leaders from 2007 and how many of those guys actually maintained their pace for the entire year:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/weekly?ye ... &type=rush


You can say that about a lot of weeks. The top 3 in week 5 2007 were:
1. Michael Turner, SDG
2. Kenton Keith, IND
3. Ronnie Brown, MIA

Opps ;-)

Ya gotta love a football debate by baseball guys. :-D

Keep it coming, guys. The Football Cafe is your oyster. Carpe diem. ;-D


I hate this side and it is because of snide remarks by the old football guys like Knapp. :-D
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Re: Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby HunglikeChampions » Fri Sep 12, 2008 4:53 pm

204BC wrote:
bobbing_headz wrote:The first week is probably one of the worst times to buy low/sell high, especially if you're playing in a competitive league and therefore most of the advice here, while insightful, is pointless. Any smart owner is not gonna change his perceptions of a guy's value wildly after 1 week. Like has been mentioned, you're likely not gonna be able to swing Turner for a 1st rounder because of 1 week. Same goes for buying low on a guy like Edwards or Holt.

The trick to this is waiting until a guy's value drops/peaks to the max. This of course can be very tricky but I'd say wait until at least week 3 or 4. As an example, last year I was able to swing Eli Manning for Drew Brees last year after week 5 when Brees had thrown only 1 TD and 9 picks. You guys know what happened after that. There was no way I would be able to get a deal that good in week 1 or probably 2 or 3.

Be patient my friends. 1 week is too early to start buying/selling if you want real value.


I have to disagree. An example just off the top of my head is Ronald Curry from '07. I'm sure this board was buzzing about his sell high value after week 1 last year and I'm sure that there were people saying "too early to sell high". I'd look it up by I'm too dang lazy to go digging through last year's threads. If you want to take the time, I'm sure it's there.

One thing I will look up, because it is easy to find stats on nfl.com, is what Curry did last year. In week 1 he had 10 receptions for 133 yards and a TD. If you multiply that by 16 games he should have finished the year with 160 catches for 2128 yards and 16 TDs. Obviously nobody is going to do that and you would expect a drop off from that performance, so let's say that we could assume 6 catches a game for 80 yards and .5 TD's a week, that would have brought him to 96 catches for 1,280 yds and 8 TD's. His actual total for '07? 55 receptions, 717 yds and 4TD's. If you had sold him high in week 1 last year you would have been laughing all the way to the bank. By week 3 or 4, it was obvious that he wasn't as good as that first game and there is no way you could have pulled the deal off.


Part of his point is that in good leagues, nobody is going to give you anything of "value" for a week 1 high performer. If you can get something good for somebody that overperformed week 1, then all the power to you, but in good competetive leagues, this will not happen. 3-4 weeks might be enough to change some peoples minds tho and hence when you will start getting some value back from competetive owners. If you are getting first round talent for turner after week 1 against the Lions, then I want into those Leagues next year. Not saying he wont put up a great year, but trading anybody or for anybody based off of week 1's games is silly and something not done in most good leagues.
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