bobbing_headz wrote:The first week is probably one of the worst times to buy low/sell high, especially if you're playing in a competitive league and therefore most of the advice here, while insightful, is pointless. Any smart owner is not gonna change his perceptions of a guy's value wildly after 1 week. Like has been mentioned, you're likely not gonna be able to swing Turner for a 1st rounder because of 1 week. Same goes for buying low on a guy like Edwards or Holt.
The trick to this is waiting until a guy's value drops/peaks to the max. This of course can be very tricky but I'd say wait until at least week 3 or 4. As an example, last year I was able to swing Eli Manning for Drew Brees last year after week 5 when Brees had thrown only 1 TD and 9 picks. You guys know what happened after that. There was no way I would be able to get a deal that good in week 1 or probably 2 or 3.
Be patient my friends. 1 week is too early to start buying/selling if you want real value.
I have to disagree. An example just off the top of my head is Ronald Curry from '07. I'm sure this board was buzzing about his sell high value after week 1 last year and I'm sure that there were people saying "too early to sell high". I'd look it up by I'm too dang lazy to go digging through last year's threads. If you want to take the time, I'm sure it's there.
One thing I will look up, because it is easy to find stats on nfl.com, is what Curry did last year. In week 1 he had 10 receptions for 133 yards and a TD. If you multiply that by 16 games he should have finished the year with 160 catches for 2128 yards and 16 TDs. Obviously nobody is going to do that and you would expect a drop off from that performance, so let's say that we could assume 6 catches a game for 80 yards and .5 TD's a week, that would have brought him to 96 catches for 1,280 yds and 8 TD's. His actual total for '07? 55 receptions, 717 yds and 4TD's. If you had sold him high in week 1 last year you would have been laughing all the way to the bank. By week 3 or 4, it was obvious that he wasn't as good as that first game and there is no way you could have pulled the deal off.
Part of his point is that in good leagues, nobody is going to give you anything of "value" for a week 1 high performer. If you can get something good for somebody that overperformed week 1, then all the power to you, but in good competetive leagues, this will not happen. 3-4 weeks might be enough to change some peoples minds tho and hence when you will start getting some value back from competetive owners. If you are getting first round talent for turner after week 1 against the Lions, then I want into those Leagues next year. Not saying he wont put up a great year, but trading anybody or for anybody based off of week 1's games is silly and something not done in most good leagues.
Jamal Lewis I disagree with this one. What he did last season was a fluke and many may think his real value is more then it is.
Santonio Holmes They are going to know that you are trying to buy low.
Chad Johnson His name makes him impossable to buy low on just yet.
Anquan Boldin He did too well in week 1 to even make that possable.
Carson Palmer I guess that is possable but there is a risk that it could turn into not buying low.
Larry Johnson He shouldn't be there. He is overvalue to start with what he did week 1 is about what you should expect from him.
Donald Driver He is good and you will get from him what you get and I don't see an advantage to get here.
Braylon Edwards I think people option of him is too high to buy low.
Bryant Johnson I'm not sure if you want to point out anyone as a buy low in Frisco.
Marvin Harrison I think there is too much risk there.
Jonathon Stewart Alright, I'll agree with that.
Marques Colston Good one. He is a perfect player to go after.
Tory Holt Well, He might be a good one to buy low.
Roddy White I'm not sure he's worth more then what you would have to give up.
Sell High
Selvin Young He Clearly is a guy to sell on
Michael Turner I don't think that is possable yet.
Eddie Royal Yeah everyone picks him up for what he did week 1 but I'm sure no one is willing to give anything of real value there yet.
Matt Forte He is the only thing the Bears have and is set up to do very well and if you don't get a real proven guy selling high on him may come back and bit you.
THE TERMINATOR wrote:They are going to know that you are trying to buy low.
I think the argument is that in competitive leagues, this can be said for just about everyone. One week is too early to buy low/sell high unless you're playing with buffoons.
Chris Johnson He may have had a very good week 1 but everyone may not know his real value and it is possable to steal him if you offer an middle range proven player.
Jay Cutler He was outstanding week 1 and if you can get him for a Lee Evans or someone like that it may really be worth it.
Sell High
Willie Parker I clearly would use his week 1 to move him.
Marvin Harrison Alot think he is a buy low. So use that.
Laurence Maroney You tell them with the loss of Brady that New England will Run more to get more value then what you drafted him for and although that is true but with so many good Running Backs in New England you can trust there will not be much more value for him.
Selvin Young What his value is thought to be isn't as much it is.
THE TERMINATOR wrote:They are going to know that you are trying to buy low.
I think the argument is that in competitive leagues, this can be said for just about everyone. One week is too early to buy low/sell high unless you're playing with buffoons.
Yeah, Most leagues are more compettitive then we like to think it is even if your playing with buffoons.
204BC wrote: I have to disagree. An example just off the top of my head is Ronald Curry from '07. I'm sure this board was buzzing about his sell high value after week 1 last year and I'm sure that there were people saying "too early to sell high". I'd look it up by I'm too dang lazy to go digging through last year's threads. If you want to take the time, I'm sure it's there.
One thing I will look up, because it is easy to find stats on nfl.com, is what Curry did last year. In week 1 he had 10 receptions for 133 yards and a TD. If you multiply that by 16 games he should have finished the year with 160 catches for 2128 yards and 16 TDs. Obviously nobody is going to do that and you would expect a drop off from that performance, so let's say that we could assume 6 catches a game for 80 yards and .5 TD's a week, that would have brought him to 96 catches for 1,280 yds and 8 TD's. His actual total for '07? 55 receptions, 717 yds and 4TD's. If you had sold him high in week 1 last year you would have been laughing all the way to the bank. By week 3 or 4, it was obvious that he wasn't as good as that first game and there is no way you could have pulled the deal off.
Part of his point is that in good leagues, nobody is going to give you anything of "value" for a week 1 high performer. If you can get something good for somebody that overperformed week 1, then all the power to you, but in good competetive leagues, this will not happen. 3-4 weeks might be enough to change some peoples minds tho and hence when you will start getting some value back from competetive owners. If you are getting first round talent for turner after week 1 against the Lions, then I want into those Leagues next year. Not saying he wont put up a great year, but trading anybody or for anybody based off of week 1's games is silly and something not done in most good leagues.
Couldn't have said it better myself
I think I view the meaning of "buy low" or "sell high" a little differently than some. When it comes to trades, I only hit on about 5%. That means 19 out of 20 offers I make are rejected. Why? Well there are multiple reasons, the main one being that I am in competetive leagues and most owners are much like you guys and are not going to bite. However that does not take away from the fact that the "buy low" or "sell high" players are not candidates for trade proposals.
I'm not saying you should trade them, what I'm saying is you should try to. Just because you wouldn't accept the trade doesn't mean someone else might not. Heck, I'd probably have rejected every trade offer I've ever made if they had been offered to me, but like I said, I hit about 5% of the time so I keep trying.
You also have to consider the fact that no matter how good someone is at FF, they might cheer for the Packers or the Cowboys or the Panthers, etc, etc and if the guy you offer to them plays on their favorite team, sometimes that can tip the scales in your favor. If they get offered their favorite player on their favorite team, just like free sex they can't seem to turn it down.
The way I see it, the trade offer will either be rejected or accepted. If it is rejected, so what? The trade would have never happened if you just sat there and did nothing so really your not out anything. If it is accepted you might just have gained a competetive edge on your opponents.
One more little note. I very rarely attempt to buy low unless I feel very strongly that the buy low candidate is going to bust out. Most of my trade offers are of the "sell high" category. Trading a one or two week wonder for a known top performer involves less risk IMO.
THE TERMINATOR wrote:Ok, I'll give you my choices.
Buy Low
Chris Johnson He may have had a very good week 1 but everyone may not know his real value and it is possable to steal him if you offer an middle range proven player.
Jay Cutler He was outstanding week 1 and if you can get him for a Lee Evans or someone like that it may really be worth it.
Sell High
Willie Parker I clearly would use his week 1 to move him.
Marvin Harrison Alot think he is a buy low. So use that.
Laurence Maroney You tell them with the loss of Brady that New England will Run more to get more value then what you drafted him for and although that is true but with so many good Running Backs in New England you can trust there will not be much more value for him.
Selvin Young What his value is thought to be isn't as much it is.
so your initial post listed a bunch of guys suggested earlier in the thread and you basically said they were all bad because you dont think that people would believe in what happened last week or "they are going to know you are trying to by low".. ive got some news for you, a lot of those players you listed as bogus were drafted by people who rely on them as their #1 at that particular position, so if a player of that calibre underperforms on their only game of the season, its cause for concern, and some people will make impulse changes based on the fears that week 1 trends may continue.
then you go and list players who had solid weeks like cutler and johnson as guys to target as buy lows. i dont know about you but as far as week 1 goes, i havent heard from anyone on tv, forums or friends that didnt think cutler looked anything less than very solid. johnson also has quite a bandwagon following already. so how can you discount guys that underperformed relative to their draft positions and then list as a counter two guys that did as well or better than they were projected to do and list them as "buy lows"?
...and maroney as a sell high? the dude dropped like a rock in drafts because people know the threat of how NE uses RBs. so what you are saying is those guys in your league that all passed on him in the draft will look at the week 1 game and see that morris had half again as many touches as maroney, better stats, but maroney is the guy you need from here on out? good luck selling high there.
deluxe_247 wrote: ...and maroney as a sell high? the dude dropped like a rock in drafts because people know the threat of how NE uses RBs. so what you are saying is those guys in your league that all passed on him in the draft will look at the week 1 game and see that morris had half again as many touches as maroney, better stats, but maroney is the guy you need from here on out? good luck selling high there.
Actually, I think I get what he's saying. Sell Maroney because his situation has changed and nobody is quite sure which way it will go for him. With Brady down NE might rely more on the run and some folks with think they're buying low. In the OP's opinion though, Maroney will continue to go down but this is a sell high moment.
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by Kensat30 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:13 pm 
