Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

[The Lung]

Worst Run Defenses from Week 1 (Yds. Allowed, Rushing TDs given up)

27 Cleveland Browns 167.0, 3
28 Houston Texans 183.0, 3
28 Indianapolis Colts 183.0, 2
30 Green Bay Packers 187.0, 1
31 Cincinnati Bengals 229.0, 2
32 Detroit Lions 318.0, 3

Matchups in week 2:
Browns vs. Steelers (Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall)
Texans vs. Ravens (Willis McGahee if healthy, Ray Rice)
Colts @ Vikings (Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor)
Packers @ Lions (Kevin Smith)
Bengals vs. Titans (Chris Johnson, Lendale White)
Lions vs. Packers (Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson)

Worst Pass Defenses from Week 1 (Yds. Allowed, Passing TDs given up)

29 Oakland Raiders 299.0, 2
30 Cleveland Browns 320.0, 1
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 337.0, 3
32 St. Louis Rams 414.0, 3

Matchups in week 2:
Raiders @ Chiefs (Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez)
Browns vs. Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller)
Bucs vs. Falcons (Roddy White, Michael Jenkins)
Rams vs. Giants (Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress)

What does this all mean? It shows the worst run defenses and pass defenses from week 1 and the opponents they face in week 2. Although the data pool is limited to one data point (and you should never bench your studs) if I've got a borderline roster sit/start decision, I may go with the favorable matchup shown.

[fantasizing]

Anyone who has taken a course in statistics knows that you dont' draw conclusions from one data point.

Wait a few games into the season before you can get a better idea of which teams have good/bad rush/pass offenses/defenses.

[The Lung]

I clearly indicated that the data pool is limited to one data point, that you should never bench your studs, and that this information should be used only for borderline roster sit/start decisions.

[BALCO All-Stars]

Thanks for starting this thread...it will become more and more useful as the season goes on.

[mikus]

Awesome work, thanks for putting this together.

[dupree]

Anyone who has taken a course in statistics knows that you dont' draw conclusions from one data point.

Wait a few games into the season before you can get a better idea of which teams have good/bad rush/pass offenses/defenses.

but 1 data point is > 0 data points when trying to field a RB3 from a bunch of what ifs and could bees.

Thanks for the breath!

[cobra333]

I actually think Carolina is a strong play against the Bears.

[theimitator]

I actually think Carolina is a strong play against the Bears.

I am thinking the same.

[footballsimp]

this is good stuff. I look for the lions, bengals, texans and browns to continue to suck against the run. Either Forte and the bears run game is real good or the colts stink.

I think Tampa's pass defense is better than that. they played against one of the pass happy offenses of the league and one of the best QB's in the league. I wouldnt expect matty ice to tear them a new butt hole.

as we get more data we should expand it to the bottom 10 against the run and pass and maybe the top 10 against the run and pass.

I am a big advocate of match-ups.

[deerayfan072]

this is good stuff. I look for the lions, bengals, texans and browns to continue to suck against the run. Either Forte and the bears run game is real good or the colts stink.

I think Tampa's pass defense is better than that. they played against one of the pass happy offenses of the league and one of the best QB's in the league. I wouldnt expect matty ice to tear them a new butt hole.

as we get more data we should expand it to the bottom 10 against the run and pass and maybe the top 10 against the run and pass.

I am a big advocate of match-ups.

The numbers are a bit misleading IMO. They gave up a hug pass play to Henderson because Ronde fell down, that won't happen again, and a long pass to Bush happened because Brooks was out and we had our MLB playing outside for some reason, and that isn't happening again either. Finally, rookie Talib mistimed his jump early in the game for that Patten TD, which shouldn't happen again either.