Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Moderator: Football Moderators

Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Tue Sep 09, 2008 9:21 pm

Worst Run Defenses from Week 1 (Yds. Allowed, Rushing TDs given up)

27 Cleveland Browns 167.0, 3
28 Houston Texans 183.0, 3
28 Indianapolis Colts 183.0, 2
30 Green Bay Packers 187.0, 1
31 Cincinnati Bengals 229.0, 2
32 Detroit Lions 318.0, 3

Matchups in week 2:
Browns vs. Steelers (Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall)
Texans vs. Ravens (Willis McGahee if healthy, Ray Rice)
Colts @ Vikings (Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor)
Packers @ Lions (Kevin Smith)
Bengals vs. Titans (Chris Johnson, Lendale White)
Lions vs. Packers (Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson)

Worst Pass Defenses from Week 1 (Yds. Allowed, Passing TDs given up)

29 Oakland Raiders 299.0, 2
30 Cleveland Browns 320.0, 1
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 337.0, 3
32 St. Louis Rams 414.0, 3

Matchups in week 2:
Raiders @ Chiefs (Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez)
Browns vs. Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller)
Bucs vs. Falcons (Roddy White, Michael Jenkins)
Rams vs. Giants (Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress)

What does this all mean? It shows the worst run defenses and pass defenses from week 1 and the opponents they face in week 2. Although the data pool is limited to one data point (and you should never bench your studs) if I've got a borderline roster sit/start decision, I may go with the favorable matchup shown.
(~);}

Image

(~);}
The Lung
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9850
(Past Year: 68)
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Disgusted with Mocha Bean

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby fantasizing » Tue Sep 09, 2008 9:47 pm

Anyone who has taken a course in statistics knows that you dont' draw conclusions from one data point.

Wait a few games into the season before you can get a better idea of which teams have good/bad rush/pass offenses/defenses.
fantasizing
Head Coach
Head Coach


Posts: 1673
Joined: 30 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Tue Sep 09, 2008 9:49 pm

I clearly indicated that the data pool is limited to one data point, that you should never bench your studs, and that this information should be used only for borderline roster sit/start decisions.
(~);}

Image

(~);}
The Lung
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9850
(Past Year: 68)
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Disgusted with Mocha Bean

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Tue Sep 09, 2008 9:59 pm

Thanks for starting this thread...it will become more and more useful as the season goes on.
BALCO All-Stars
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 678
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 9 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby mikus » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:30 pm

Awesome work, thanks for putting this together. ;-D
Image
Thanks to madaslives911 for the sweet sig!
The Hazean: Fantasy football galore
mikus
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe RankerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 4658
Joined: 20 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Same place as every other blogger: My Mom's basement. That is where bloggers work, right?

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby dupree » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:41 pm

fantasizing wrote:Anyone who has taken a course in statistics knows that you dont' draw conclusions from one data point.

Wait a few games into the season before you can get a better idea of which teams have good/bad rush/pass offenses/defenses.



but 1 data point is > 0 data points when trying to field a RB3 from a bunch of what ifs and could bees.

Thanks for the breath!
dupree
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar

Posts: 247
Joined: 17 Jul 2008
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby cobra333 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 11:01 pm

I actually think Carolina is a strong play against the Bears.
cobra333
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 137
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby theimitator » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:07 am

cobra333 wrote:I actually think Carolina is a strong play against the Bears.


I am thinking the same.
14 Team w/FLX .5PPR
The Porkchop Express
QB: Carson Palmer, Vince Young
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Reggie Bush, Tim Hightower
WR: Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens, Jabar Gaffney
TE: John Carlson, Ben Watson
PK: R Gould
TD: NO, TB
theimitator
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar

Posts: 510
Joined: 21 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: updating my Netflix queue

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby footballsimp » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:35 am

this is good stuff. I look for the lions, bengals, texans and browns to continue to suck against the run. Either Forte and the bears run game is real good or the colts stink.

I think Tampa's pass defense is better than that. they played against one of the pass happy offenses of the league and one of the best QB's in the league. I wouldnt expect matty ice to tear them a new butt hole.

as we get more data we should expand it to the bottom 10 against the run and pass and maybe the top 10 against the run and pass.

I am a big advocate of match-ups.
Image
footballsimp
Head Coach
Head Coach


Posts: 1290
Joined: 14 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby deerayfan072 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:59 am

footballsimp wrote:this is good stuff. I look for the lions, bengals, texans and browns to continue to suck against the run. Either Forte and the bears run game is real good or the colts stink.

I think Tampa's pass defense is better than that. they played against one of the pass happy offenses of the league and one of the best QB's in the league. I wouldnt expect matty ice to tear them a new butt hole.

as we get more data we should expand it to the bottom 10 against the run and pass and maybe the top 10 against the run and pass.

I am a big advocate of match-ups.


The numbers are a bit misleading IMO. They gave up a hug pass play to Henderson because Ronde fell down, that won't happen again, and a long pass to Bush happened because Brooks was out and we had our MLB playing outside for some reason, and that isn't happening again either. Finally, rookie Talib mistimed his jump early in the game for that Patten TD, which shouldn't happen again either.
Image
deerayfan072
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 18976
Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: On an Island

Next

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 10:08 hours
(and 41 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact