Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby moochman » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:10 am

deerayfan072 wrote:
footballsimp wrote:this is good stuff. I look for the lions, bengals, texans and browns to continue to suck against the run. Either Forte and the bears run game is real good or the colts stink.

I think Tampa's pass defense is better than that. they played against one of the pass happy offenses of the league and one of the best QB's in the league. I wouldnt expect matty ice to tear them a new butt hole.

as we get more data we should expand it to the bottom 10 against the run and pass and maybe the top 10 against the run and pass.

I am a big advocate of match-ups.


The numbers are a bit misleading IMO. They gave up a hug pass play to Henderson because Ronde fell down, that won't happen again, and a long pass to Bush happened because Brooks was out and we had our MLB playing outside for some reason, and that isn't happening again either. Finally, rookie Talib mistimed his jump early in the game for that Patten TD, which shouldn't happen again either.


Same can be said for the Packer run D. They were going against AD and a running QB. I don't know that I could rely on the Lions running well just because the Packers are in town. Should the Lions have a big day rushing the football, I would assume the Pack's run D to be shakey.

Thanks for the great work here, Lung!
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16302
(Past Year: 82)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby mattUTD20 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:47 am

I wouldn't get excited about starting Carolina runners against a healthy Bear defense. And like Moochman said don't get excited about starting Kevin Smith against the Packers. One data point provided by AD isn't going to be a reliable predictor for other runners. If anything, you should expect the Lions to get down early and have to throw the ball more often to catch up.
"Maurice Jones-Drew, below the waist, is incredible." Mike Mayock

Cafe Leagues

Eat Cheese Dynasty (Owner: 2 year) CuYr: 2 PvYr: 1
Ball Breakers Keeper (Owner: 2 year) CuYr: 3 PvYr: 2
4th and Goal Dynasty (Owner: 2 year) CuYr: 2 PvYr: 9
mattUTD20
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe MusketeerLucky Ladders ChampionCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 1409
Joined: 22 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Wed Sep 10, 2008 10:08 am

I'm very much inclined to agree with you about the Tampa pass D, especially considering the Bucs are at home and facing a rookie QB. Of all the matchups listed, I would be most leery of starting White and Jenkins.

Remember that it was clearly stated from the beginning that these matchups are based on one data point and should be taken with a grain of salt and used only for borderline decisions between two players with roughly the same expected fantasy output, but with one having a "favorable" matchup.
(~);}

Image

(~);}
The Lung
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9850
(Past Year: 61)
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Disgusted with Mocha Bean

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby deerayfan072 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 10:49 am

The Lung wrote:I'm very much inclined to agree with you about the Tampa pass D, especially considering the Bucs are at home and facing a rookie QB. Of all the matchups listed, I would be most leery of starting White and Jenkins.

Remember that it was clearly stated from the beginning that these matchups are based on one data point and should be taken with a grain of salt and used only for borderline decisions between two players with roughly the same expected fantasy output, but with one having a "favorable" matchup.


Totally agree, just giving an observation from the game I watched last week. Also, TB has always faired well against rookie QB's. I hope the same happens this week :-o
Image
deerayfan072
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 18976
Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: On an Island

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 1:21 pm

I'm starting Chris Johnson over Thomas Jones based on the matchup.

The matchups on the list I watch out for are the guys who played a very tough running team or passing team and got blown up. That says more about the opposing offense than the quality of the defense.

IE

GB vs. Peterson
TB vs . Brees
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby deerayfan072 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 1:37 pm

Kensat30 wrote:I'm starting Chris Johnson over Thomas Jones based on the matchup.

The matchups on the list I watch out for are the guys who played a very tough running team or passing team and got blown up. That says more about the opposing offense than the quality of the defense.

IE

GB vs. Peterson
TB vs . Brees


Yea, AD is going to have a field day with IND this week :-L
Image
deerayfan072
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 18976
Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: On an Island

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby LeBron James » Wed Sep 10, 2008 1:41 pm

deerayfan072 wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:I'm starting Chris Johnson over Thomas Jones based on the matchup.

The matchups on the list I watch out for are the guys who played a very tough running team or passing team and got blown up. That says more about the opposing offense than the quality of the defense.

IE

GB vs. Peterson
TB vs . Brees


Yea, AD is going to have a field day with IND this week :-L


Good info Lung, thanks! And yes, I hope AD rushes for 200 yards and 3 TDs as I have him in one of my leagues! }:-)
LeBron James
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 366
Joined: 28 Jul 2008
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Thu Sep 11, 2008 12:14 pm

The Colts starting nose tackle, Ed Johnson, was busted for marijuana possession and released yesterday.

I'll be disappointed if Adrian Peterson doesn't run for at least 150 yards and 2 TDs this week, and wouldn't be surprised if he cracked 200. ;-D
(~);}

Image

(~);}
The Lung
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9850
(Past Year: 61)
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Disgusted with Mocha Bean

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby knapplc » Thu Sep 11, 2008 12:34 pm

You should really use more than one data point before making posts like this, Lung. I thought I'd point that out since nobody else seems to have noticed.




:-B



Seriously, though - good stuff. Thanks!
Image
How 'bout them Huskers!
knapplc
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerGolden Eagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 18961
Joined: 27 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: It's an L, not an I

Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 2 Matchups

Postby Mr.Joshua » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:03 pm

Great thread....thank you
Image
Wilson
Forte,Morris,Ivory,B.Brown,M.Christine,B.Bolden
Cobb,VJax,DeSean,M.Floyd,L.Moore
V.Davis
Posluszny
M.Bryant
Colts
Mr.Joshua
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) DrafterLucky Ladders ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 2959
(Past Year: 210)
Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Miami

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 20:30 hours
(and 34 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact