Before we continue with any Buy Low / Sell High discussion, perhaps it best to define the concept. I say this based on the week 1 BuyLow/Sell high thread in which people were recommending Jay Cutler and others as buy low candidates, which makes absolutely ZERO sense. (Remember that Cutler had just shredded the Raiders defense for 299 yards and 3 TDs)
Fantasy football is like the stock market — to succeed, you need to understand when to buy low and sell high. That means it's crucial to identify players likely to increase their value and acquire them before they take off. It also means avoiding — or at least paying less for — players who have peaked and are likely to decline in value. The tricky part is knowing when players have reached their highest value and when they have reached their lowest.
One of the best ways to tell if a player has reached his highest value or lowest value is to study the opponents they recently have played and the opponents they will play in upcoming weeks. If a player is hot, but has torn up weak defenses, and faces a tougher upcoming schedule, that player may be a great sell-high candidate. If a player is struggling to produce numbers, but has faced a tough schedule, and has an easy schedule ahead, that player could be a solid buy-low candidate.
- In my opinion, here is the textbook example of a buy low candidate: WR Braylon Edwards - 2 games and only 5 catches for 46 yards and no TDs. BUT, Cleveland has faced two of the strongest teams in the league and the winds during the Browns game on Sunday night were gusting 50+ mph. Addtionally, Edwards is coming off a foot injury.
Edwards caught 80 passes for 1289 yards and 16 TDs last year - this can't last forever. Why not swing a trade offer to an impatient owner to see if he will give Edwards up? It never hurts to try.
- In my opinion, here is the textbook example of a sell high candidate: WR DeSean Jackson - yes, despite the boneheaded drop just short of the endzone, the rookie has been brilliant in the first two weeks, going over 100 yards in each game and being the first rookie to do so since like the 1940s. However, the Eagles faced the worst passing defense in the league in week 1, the Rams, and the Eagles were in a shootout against the Cowboys. Additionally, what will Jackson's role be when the #1 and #1A Eagles receivers, Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown, return from their injuries? I'm willing to bet that Jackson's role will be considerably less. And finally, rookies are notoriously inconsistent and it's extremely rare that a rookie experiences an Anquan Boldin / Randy Moss type rookie season. Jackson's value is at all all-time high now and can't last forever. Why not swing a trade offer to an owner to see if he will give up an elite receiver in exchange for Jackson? It never hurts to try.