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Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby Jagator73 » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:42 am

Forgot to add SJax and TJ Housh to buy low earlier...although I'm a little skeptical about the rest of the season for both...they play on arguably the 2 worst teams in the league besides maybe the Chiefs.
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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:05 am

The Lung wrote:Before we continue with any Buy Low / Sell High discussion, perhaps it best to define the concept. I say this based on the week 1 BuyLow/Sell high thread in which people were recommending Jay Cutler and others as buy low candidates, which makes absolutely ZERO sense. (Remember that Cutler had just shredded the Raiders defense for 299 yards and 3 TDs)

Fantasy football is like the stock market — to succeed, you need to understand when to buy low and sell high. That means it's crucial to identify players likely to increase their value and acquire them before they take off. It also means avoiding — or at least paying less for — players who have peaked and are likely to decline in value. The tricky part is knowing when players have reached their highest value and when they have reached their lowest.

One of the best ways to tell if a player has reached his highest value or lowest value is to study the opponents they recently have played and the opponents they will play in upcoming weeks. If a player is hot, but has torn up weak defenses, and faces a tougher upcoming schedule, that player may be a great sell-high candidate. If a player is struggling to produce numbers, but has faced a tough schedule, and has an easy schedule ahead, that player could be a solid buy-low candidate.

  • In my opinion, here is the textbook example of a buy low candidate: WR Braylon Edwards - 2 games and only 5 catches for 46 yards and no TDs. BUT, Cleveland has faced two of the strongest teams in the league and the winds during the Browns game on Sunday night were gusting 50+ mph. Addtionally, Edwards is coming off a foot injury.

    Edwards caught 80 passes for 1289 yards and 16 TDs last year - this can't last forever. Why not swing a trade offer to an impatient owner to see if he will give Edwards up? It never hurts to try. ;-D
  • In my opinion, here is the textbook example of a sell high candidate: WR DeSean Jackson - yes, despite the boneheaded drop just short of the endzone, the rookie has been brilliant in the first two weeks, going over 100 yards in each game and being the first rookie to do so since like the 1940s. However, the Eagles faced the worst passing defense in the league in week 1, the Rams, and the Eagles were in a shootout against the Cowboys. Additionally, what will Jackson's role be when the #1 and #1A Eagles receivers, Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown, return from their injuries? I'm willing to bet that Jackson's role will be considerably less. And finally, rookies are notoriously inconsistent and it's extremely rare that a rookie experiences an Anquan Boldin / Randy Moss type rookie season. Jackson's value is at all all-time high now and can't last forever. Why not swing a trade offer to an owner to see if he will give up an elite receiver in exchange for Jackson? It never hurts to try.

We had a big Buy Low/Sell High discussion earlier this season on the Dark Side. Everything you say is true, at the fundamental level, for the concept. However, the premise of Buy Low/Sell High has evolved since its early stages, and, in my opinion, is a much more complex scheme than what you are describing here, especially when playing in a league full of savvy fantasy football veterans.

Jay Cutler is a 'Buy Low' in the sense that if you think he is going to do what he's done in Weeks 1 and 2 for the entire season, whereas his owner does not and is looking to Sell High, in the classic sense, you could definitely say you are getting a Buy Low, as you are projecting to be getting Cutler at a discounted rate compared to what you expect his level of productivity to be for the entire season. Not a Buy Low in the classic sense, as Cutler isn't an under-performing player, but again, a possible Buy Low for the season.

In more advanced leagues, these are common strategies that break the mold of what you're describing as your Buy Low/Sell High, but that doesn't make them wrong, nor are people making 'ZERO sense', nor are they 'clearly not understand the concept of buy low, sell high', as you said in the Week 1 thread. If you're in a league full of guys who know what's what, the basic, textbook Buy Low/Sell High criterion doesn't apply. It's all with regard to a player's presumed value in your league. If an owner is looking to Sell High, and I think he's going to continue his high level of play, is it not a potential Buy Low? Especially if I'm trying to flip a classic Sell High player for him? Or better yet, Sell Low on a player who has started slow who I think will continue to, so my trade partner thinks he himself is Buying High?
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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby The Lung » Tue Sep 16, 2008 12:31 pm

bigh0rt wrote:We had a big Buy Low/Sell High discussion earlier this season on the Dark Side. Everything you say is true, at the fundamental level, for the concept. However, the premise of Buy Low/Sell High has evolved since its early stages, and, in my opinion, is a much more complex scheme than what you are describing here, especially when playing in a league full of savvy fantasy football veterans.

Jay Cutler is a 'Buy Low' in the sense that if you think he is going to do what he's done in Weeks 1 and 2 for the entire season, whereas his owner does not and is looking to Sell High, in the classic sense, you could definitely say you are getting a Buy Low, as you are projecting to be getting Cutler at a discounted rate compared to what you expect his level of productivity to be for the entire season. Not a Buy Low in the classic sense, as Cutler isn't an under-performing player, but again, a possible Buy Low for the season.



bigh0rt,

While I agree with you that the classic Buy Low / Sell High does have some advanced applications, from reading the week 1 thread I did not get the sense that many people were applying it in the manner you described. Furthermore, there were a few folks in that thread who tossed out some names and when presenting their reasons / line of thinking, I got the impression that they didn't understand the base concept.

Perhaps I was reading it wrong and I apologize if that was the case, but I don't think that now presenting the textbook definition of buy low / sell high was a bad thing. If it wasn't necessary, oh well. But it hopefully will get everyone on the same page to begin with, after which we can move to the advanced concepts of which you speak. ;-D
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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby LS2throwed » Tue Sep 16, 2008 12:54 pm

Braylon is a tricky buy low guy, I'm an owner, I'm 2-0 thus far because I'm not relying on him so a part of me wants to wait, but then what if you wait too long and Anderson gets benched for Quinn? Not sure if his value is the same then, and if I could get a WR1 in return for him like Plax or Fitz why not...I think he himself will be fine, he missed alot of pre-season and practice, I'm trying to think if this happened with another WR before so I can see when he turned it on but he didn't just forget how to play football, but I do have the week 4 date at CIncy on my mind and that should be a huge day, if not his value will be so low that you have to keep him.



I'm going back and forth on him, I hate to trade a 2nd rd pick for a WR who went in the 4th but at this point the season has started so we might as well throw draft stock out of the window.
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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:40 pm

The Lung wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:We had a big Buy Low/Sell High discussion earlier this season on the Dark Side. Everything you say is true, at the fundamental level, for the concept. However, the premise of Buy Low/Sell High has evolved since its early stages, and, in my opinion, is a much more complex scheme than what you are describing here, especially when playing in a league full of savvy fantasy football veterans.

Jay Cutler is a 'Buy Low' in the sense that if you think he is going to do what he's done in Weeks 1 and 2 for the entire season, whereas his owner does not and is looking to Sell High, in the classic sense, you could definitely say you are getting a Buy Low, as you are projecting to be getting Cutler at a discounted rate compared to what you expect his level of productivity to be for the entire season. Not a Buy Low in the classic sense, as Cutler isn't an under-performing player, but again, a possible Buy Low for the season.



bigh0rt,

While I agree with you that the classic Buy Low / Sell High does have some advanced applications, from reading the week 1 thread I did not get the sense that many people were applying it in the manner you described. Furthermore, there were a few folks in that thread who tossed out some names and when presenting their reasons / line of thinking, I got the impression that they didn't understand the base concept.

Perhaps I was reading it wrong and I apologize if that was the case, but I don't think that now presenting the textbook definition of buy low / sell high was a bad thing. If it wasn't necessary, oh well. But it hopefully will get everyone on the same page to begin with, after which we can move to the advanced concepts of which you speak. ;-D

Oh, no. The Cafe is an awesome resource for everyone from beginners to the masters (I tend to think I'm closer to the former than latter :-b ), so I'm of the opinion that you can never have enough information or advice. If I came off as presuming that it was a bad thing, apologies. I think the perfect scenario would be for people to support their reasonings fully, as the explanation is worth far more than the name itself. Hopefully that's a route we can travel, because I'm trying like heck to see who I should be looking to flip or acquire in my league, myself. ;-D
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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby Mr. Moose » Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:05 pm

Bye Low: Cotchery... he has started pretty slow and Favre is still learning the offense so Cotch's potential should go up each weak as more of the playbook is installed. Over the last two seasons Cotch averaged 82/1045/4 with "noodle arm". I fully expect him to surpass those numbers with Favre at the helm and if you extrapolate his first two weeks for the entire season you get 32/800/8. I think the TD's are probably pretty close but other than that he is not producing to his potential.

Sell High: Kurt Warner... has had one great start and one solid start, and could continue to do it all season long if he could stay healthy. He's already been sacked 5 times in the first two games and that was against SF and MIA. I just don't think he can take the kind of abuse that comes along with a 40-50 sack season. He'll continue to produce while he's out there but you have to be the judge of how long thats gonna be. I say get rid of him soon cuz you can't play a man in a stretcher at QB.
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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby The Lung » Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:29 pm

Mr. Moose wrote:Sell High: Kurt Warner... has had one great start and one solid start, and could continue to do it all season long if he could stay healthy. He's already been sacked 5 times in the first two games and that was against SF and MIA. I just don't think he can take the kind of abuse that comes along with a 40-50 sack season. He'll continue to produce while he's out there but you have to be the judge of how long thats gonna be. I say get rid of him soon cuz you can't play a man in a stretcher at QB.


I am personally going to hold onto Warner through week 11. Arizona has a relatively soft schedule at least in terms of projected fantasy production, but things get tough after Week 11. The Cardinals face the Giants and the Eagles in Weeks 12 & 13, and during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-16), the Cards will face Minnesota at home before heading to New England. Sell high on your Cardinals' players in mid November -- it could be rocky after that.
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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby Dan Lambskin » Wed Sep 17, 2008 1:40 pm

Mr. Moose wrote:Bye Low: Cotchery... he has started pretty slow and Favre is still learning the offense so Cotch's potential should go up each weak as more of the playbook is installed. Over the last two seasons Cotch averaged 82/1045/4 with "noodle arm". I fully expect him to surpass those numbers with Favre at the helm and if you extrapolate his first two weeks for the entire season you get 32/800/8. I think the TD's are probably pretty close but other than that he is not producing to his potential.

Sell High: Kurt Warner... has had one great start and one solid start, and could continue to do it all season long if he could stay healthy. He's already been sacked 5 times in the first two games and that was against SF and MIA. I just don't think he can take the kind of abuse that comes along with a 40-50 sack season. He'll continue to produce while he's out there but you have to be the judge of how long thats gonna be. I say get rid of him soon cuz you can't play a man in a stretcher at QB.


i just traded Cotchery for Warner :-b but i was desperate at QB after losing Brady (Pennington, Griese = :-P )
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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby unreal2399 » Wed Sep 17, 2008 5:34 pm

how about buying ronnie brown, he has recently been taking practice with the first team starters and was a complete
fantasy beast last year while he was healthy....if you play a flex position, i would consider adding him to your roster.
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Re: Week 2 BuyLow/Sell high

Postby LS2throwed » Wed Sep 17, 2008 8:31 pm

I'm staying away from Addai, that line is in shambles, Peyton is still not right, its not a good situation at all and I'm going to let his owner deal with those struggles...Maybe I'll go after him in 2 or 3 more weeks but I am really low on him...I had the 5th pick and took Barber over him in my main redraft, certainly paying dividends now :-b
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