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Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

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Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:03 am

Worst Run Defenses (Rank, Yds. Allowed, Yds/game, Rushing TDs given up)

27 St. Louis Rams 308, 154, 3
28 Indianapolis Colts 363, 181.5, 2
29 Houston Texans 183, 183, 3
30 Cincinnati Bengals 406, 203, 3
31 Kansas City Chiefs 426, 213, 3
32 Detroit Lions 441, 220.5, 4

Matchups in week 3:
Rams @ Seattle (Julius Jones)
Colts vs. Jaguars (Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew)
Texans @ Titans (Chris Johnson, Lenwhale White)
Bengals @ New York Giants (Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw)
Chiefs @ Falcons (Michael Turner)
Lions @ 49ers (Frank Gore)

Worst Pass Defenses (Rank, Yds. Allowed, Passing TDs given up)

29 Denver Broncos 533, 5
30 Miami Dolphins 545, 5
31 San Diego Chargers 587, 5
32 St. Louis Rams 655, 6

Matchups in week 3:
Broncos vs. Saints (Drew Brees, David Patten, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Bush)
Dolphins @ New England (Matt Cassel, Randy Moss, Wes Welker)
Chargers vs. New York Jets (Brett Favre, Laverneous Coles, Jerricho Cotchery)
Rams @ Seattle (Matt Hasselbeck, John Carlson)

What does this all mean? It shows the worst run defenses and pass defenses from the first two weeks and the opponents they face in week 3. Although some caveats are in order:

  • Anyone who has taken a course in statistics knows that you don't draw concrete conclusions from such a limited amount of data (two data points)
  • You should never bench your studs
  • The Jaguars offensive line is decimated and the running game has been awful. Do they break out of their slump against Indy?
  • Because of Hurricane Ike canceling the last Texans game, their run defense is based on one game vs. the Steelers in week 1
  • The Giants RBBC is a crapshoot. You almost have to start Jacobs, but Ward and Bradshaw are risky plays.
  • Even against the worst pass defense in the league, who does Matt Hasselbeck have to throw to besides his tight end?
So that's the info. Don't treat this data as gospel; however, if I've got a borderline roster sit/start decision, I may personally go with the favorable matchup shown. ;-D
(~);}

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(~);}
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby quack quack » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:12 am

thanks ;-D I have Gore and Johnson going this week B-)
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby moochman » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:25 am

Thanks Lung. Pretty good job on week 2 ;-D
I would say that it might not be a bad idea to think about the back-up for the 9ers, Foster. He has talent and the Lions a long and distinguished record for letting back-ups have big games. This year's evidence:
Week 1-Norwood 93 yds and a TD
Week 2-Brandon Jackson 61 yds and a TD.
Week 3-Deshaun Foster or whoever ???
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby treat24 » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:35 am

Fantasy Football Points Allowed to RBs in standard scoring

Team ... FFPPG allowed
 1. Houston Texans vs. RB 35.6
 2. Detroit Lions vs. RB 34.6
 3. St. Louis Rams vs. RB 32.4
 4. Kansas City Chiefs vs. RB 32.2
 5. Atlanta Falcons vs. RB 26.7
 6. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. RB 26.4
 7. Indianapolis Colts vs. RB 25.3
 8. San Francisco 49ers vs. RB 24.6
 9. Cleveland Browns vs. RB 23.9
 10. New Orleans Saints vs. RB 22.8
 11. Cincinnati Bengals vs. RB 22.8
 12. Denver Broncos vs. RB 21.5
 13. Washington Redskins vs. RB 19.5
 14. Dallas Cowboys vs. RB 19.4
 15. Oakland Raiders vs. RB 18.7
 16. Arizona Cardinals vs. RB 18.6
 17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. RB 18.3
 18. San Diego Chargers vs. RB 17.8
 19. Miami Dolphins vs. RB 17.4
 20. Seattle Seahawks vs. RB 17.2
 21. Tennessee Titans vs. RB 17.0
 22. Chicago Bears vs. RB 16.5
 23. Green Bay Packers vs. RB 16.0
 24. Philadelphia Eagles vs. RB 15.9
 25. New York Jets vs. RB 15.7
 26. Carolina Panthers vs. RB 15.4
 27. Buffalo Bills vs. RB 13.8
 28. New England Patriots vs. RB 12.5
 29. Minnesota Vikings vs. RB 11.4
 30. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. RB 9.5
 31. New York Giants vs. RB 9.5
 32. Baltimore Ravens vs. RB 5.8



Fantasy Football Points Allowed to WRs in standard scoring

Team ... FFPPG allowed
  1. St. Louis Rams vs. WR 38.2
 2. Miami Dolphins vs. WR 36.7
 3. Detroit Lions vs. WR 31.7
 4. San Diego Chargers vs. WR 25.5
 5. New Orleans Saints vs. WR 24.8
 6. Seattle Seahawks vs. WR 24.4
 7. Denver Broncos vs. WR 24.3
 8. Green Bay Packers vs. WR 23.8
 9. Cleveland Browns vs. WR 23.3
 10. Minnesota Vikings vs. WR 22.4
 11. Oakland Raiders vs. WR 22
 12. Houston Texans vs. WR 21.5
 13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. WR 21.2
 14. New England Patriots vs. WR 19.1
 15. New York Giants vs. WR 17.7
 16. Chicago Bears vs. WR 17.6
 17. Washington Redskins vs. WR 16.5
 18. Atlanta Falcons vs. WR 16.1
 19. San Francisco 49ers vs. WR 15.5
 20. Carolina Panthers vs. WR 14.9
 21. Philadelphia Eagles vs. WR 14.6
 22. Buffalo Bills vs. WR 14.3
 23. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. WR 13.2
 24. Kansas City Chiefs vs. WR 12.1
 25. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. WR 11.4
 26. Cincinnati Bengals vs. WR 11.1
 27. Dallas Cowboys vs. WR 10.5
 28. Tennessee Titans vs. WR 10.3
 29. Arizona Cardinals vs. WR 9.3
 30. New York Jets vs. WR 7.8
 31. Baltimore Ravens vs. WR 6.6
 32. Indianapolis Colts vs. WR 6.5
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby mikus » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:57 am

The Lung wrote:Texans @ Titans (Chris Johnson, Lenwhale White)


I almost missed that ... good one! ;-D
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby $ » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:28 am

I just have to say, These posts are AWESOME! I look forward to each week's report. Keep up the good work!!!! ;-D
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby JasonSeahorn » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:31 am

mikus wrote:
The Lung wrote:Texans @ Titans (Chris Johnson, Lenwhale White)


I almost missed that ... good one! ;-D


Don't knock on the whale, he's scored a TD in 2 straight games, he's doing his job :-b
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby totalair32 » Tue Sep 16, 2008 1:18 pm

Reggie Bush, against the Broncos, should be a huge game for him.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Tue Sep 16, 2008 1:44 pm

moochman wrote:I would say that it might not be a bad idea to think about the back-up for the 9ers, Foster. He has talent and the Lions a long and distinguished record for letting back-ups have big games. This year's evidence:
Week 1-Norwood 93 yds and a TD
Week 2-Brandon Jackson 61 yds and a TD.
Week 3-Deshaun Foster or whoever ???


Excellent observation, Mooch. ;-D

However, I cannot imagine a scenario or league setup where I would start Foster this week. There are no bye weeks yet, so you would have to be in a 20-team league or have serious injury issues to your RBs.

If the trend continues, however, after Detroit's bye in week 4 they face Chicago in week 5 and Kevin Jones could be a sneaky play, as well as Chester Taylor in week 6 against Minnesota. ;-D
(~);}

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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Tue Sep 16, 2008 9:48 pm

$ wrote:I just have to say, These posts are AWESOME! I look forward to each week's report. Keep up the good work!!!! ;-D


Thanks, $ ;-D
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