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Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby benb18a » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:44 pm

This is awesome. Using this as a reference, plus the DST ranking each week should just about render the Who do I start? forum obsolete :-b
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby Azrael » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:58 pm

You guys rock. This is exceptionally helpful...except for the fact that you've put me in a curious predicament, Gates or Carlson :-?
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby moochman » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:58 pm

Azrael wrote:You guys rock. This is exceptionally helpful...except for the fact that you've put me in a curious predicament, Gates or Carlson :-?


Fall back on the number one tenent of FFB: Play your studs! The Bolts are seething and may likely roll over the Jets 40 to something less. Gates should have a great night. Heck the Chargers D might even show up.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Wed Sep 17, 2008 8:43 am

Agreed - never bench your studs.

Update: With Bob Sanders of the Colts out 4-6 weeks with ankle sprain, I would definitely upgrade Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor for this week's matchup against the Colts defense that was already having major problems stopping the run.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby FatFoot » Wed Sep 17, 2008 10:08 am

For the post about FF points allowed by runners and WRs...

again, just for those who may be new at this, and reading these posts, you don't want to rely on that data at all, without considering the teams that those defenses have played.

Looking at the WR defense, Indy shows up as the stud defense against the pass.

They played against Kyle Orton and the Chicago Bears WRs. Can you name the starting WRs for the Bears? I can, but that's not fair... I have to watch that trash every week. One of the LEAST prolific passing offenses in the game.

Then they played the Vikings. Tavaris Jackson. Adrian Peterson. Not much else to be said there.

Still, as the weeks go on, that kind of data is totally worthwhile. I'd start paying really close attention to it after week 5.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby Azrael » Wed Sep 17, 2008 4:37 pm

Yes and Jacksonville doesn't throw the ball much better. Probably going to be another run heavy week against the Colts.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby bobbing_headz » Wed Sep 17, 2008 4:42 pm

Has anyone mentioned the Hawks/Rams game? Hawks played a pretty bad Niners team last week and the game was a shootout. I'd look for more of the same and play guys on both teams, especially the RBs.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 3 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:25 am

The Lung wrote:Worst Run Defenses (Rank, Yds. Allowed, Yds/game, Rushing TDs given up)

27 St. Louis Rams 308, 154, 3
28 Indianapolis Colts 363, 181.5, 2
29 Houston Texans 183, 183, 3
30 Cincinnati Bengals 406, 203, 3
31 Kansas City Chiefs 426, 213, 3
32 Detroit Lions 441, 220.5, 4

Matchups in week 3:
Rams @ Seattle (Julius Jones)
Colts vs. Jaguars (Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew)
Texans @ Titans (Chris Johnson, Lenwhale White)
Bengals @ New York Giants (Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw)
Chiefs @ Falcons (Michael Turner)
Lions @ 49ers (Frank Gore)

Worst Pass Defenses (Rank, Yds. Allowed, Passing TDs given up)

29 Denver Broncos 533, 5
30 Miami Dolphins 545, 5
31 San Diego Chargers 587, 5
32 St. Louis Rams 655, 6

Matchups in week 3:
Broncos vs. Saints (Drew Brees, David Patten, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Bush)
Dolphins @ New England (Matt Cassel, Randy Moss, Wes Welker)
Chargers vs. New York Jets (Brett Favre, Laverneous Coles, Jerricho Cotchery)
Rams @ Seattle (Matt Hasselbeck, John Carlson)

What does this all mean? It shows the worst run defenses and pass defenses from the first two weeks and the opponents they face in week 3. Although some caveats are in order:

  • Anyone who has taken a course in statistics knows that you don't draw concrete conclusions from such a limited amount of data (two data points)
  • You should never bench your studs
  • The Jaguars offensive line is decimated and the running game has been awful. Do they break out of their slump against Indy?
  • Because of Hurricane Ike canceling the last Texans game, their run defense is based on one game vs. the Steelers in week 1
  • The Giants RBBC is a crapshoot. You almost have to start Jacobs, but Ward and Bradshaw are risky plays.
  • Even against the worst pass defense in the league, who does Matt Hasselbeck have to throw to besides his tight end?
So that's the info. Don't treat this data as gospel; however, if I've got a borderline roster sit/start decision, I may personally go with the favorable matchup shown. ;-D


If you started these players, here's how you did:

Julius Jones: 144 yds, 1 TD
Fred Taylor: 130 yds; Maurice Jones-Drew; 166 yds, 1 TD

Chris Johnson: 79 yds; Lenwhale White: 49 yards, 2 TDs
Brandon Jacobs: 35 yds, 1 TD; Derrick Ward: 106 yds; Ahmad Bradshaw: 7 yds
Michael Turner: 104 yds, 3 TDs
Frank Gore: 162 yds, 1 TD


Drew Brees: 421 yds, 1 TD; David Patten: 12 yds; Jeremy Shockey: 75 yds; Reggie Bush: 148 yds, 2 TDs
Matt Cassel: 131 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT; Randy Moss: 25 yds; Wes Welker: 55 yds
Brett Favre: 271 yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs; Laverneous Coles: 75 yds, 1 TD; Jerricho Cotchery: 76 yds
Matt Hasselbeck: 172 yds passing & 1 TD, 19 yds rushing; John Carlson: 38 yds

With the exception of New England, who got blown out by Miami, and Seattle, who did most of their damage to the Rams on the ground, one can't be disappointed with these results and in some cases overjoyed. It should be noted that Favre's stats came mostly in garbage time, but they still count. Also WR David Patten strained his groin.
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