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Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby ampant » Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:14 pm

Yeah, obviously if Rodgers is out, that affects Jenning's value. Hopefully it will only be for a week or 2. Thank God DelHomme is starting to play well. He's my backup to Rodgers. Did anybody watch that game? How did Jennings do when Flynn was in there?

I am also sure that AJ's #s will increase, but I think he has less than a 50% chance of cracking the top 5. He'll probably end up somewhere between 10-15. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so. Schaub finally had a good game, and AJ still got nothing. He will probably go off huge if he ever gets a cake matchup, but his schedule is pretty brutal, and opposing defensive coordinators game plan around him. They take him away and make HOU find other weapons.
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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby Sixxgunn » Wed Oct 01, 2008 12:15 am

All I know is I didn't miss a beat when Moss turned into Houdini after Brady went down. I wouldn't even THINK of trading Jennings right now unless it was an out of this world trade. Rodgers injury isn't bad, and Jennings makes his QB look good. You will be hard pressed to find the kind of consistency this guy gives you anywhere, and I mean anywhere! Thats how you win games, not a 3 TD effort one week, and 35 yds with no TDs the next. He is about as reliable as you are gonna get when it comes to WRs, and that is simply invaluable.
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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby Azrael » Sat Oct 04, 2008 4:10 pm

ampant wrote:Yeah, obviously if Rodgers is out, that affects Jenning's value. Hopefully it will only be for a week or 2. Thank God DelHomme is starting to play well. He's my backup to Rodgers. Did anybody watch that game? How did Jennings do when Flynn was in there?

I am also sure that AJ's #s will increase, but I think he has less than a 50% chance of cracking the top 5. He'll probably end up somewhere between 10-15. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so. Schaub finally had a good game, and AJ still got nothing. He will probably go off huge if he ever gets a cake matchup, but his schedule is pretty brutal, and opposing defensive coordinators game plan around him. They take him away and make HOU find other weapons.


This has allowed Slaton, Walter, and Daniels to emerge. I'm hopeful that all of these other options showing up will force defensive coordinators to stop locking down Andre so much. Although it is up to him to step up. I'm hoping getting back home will help him as well. They haven't played a home game yet and now get 4 in a row. I'm also hopeful that Indy will overcompensate for trying to shut down the run where they've been blatantly exposed and this will open things up for him. Last year it was pretty much game on regardless of the matchup for AJ. I'm counting on him rounding into form.
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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby Kensat30 » Sat Oct 04, 2008 6:07 pm

I think Jennings and AJ are two guys who will have comparable value for the rest of the season. Top10 but not top5 WRs.

Here's why:

Houston just had the toughest road stretch of any team this season and like Azrael said they have yet to have a home game.
@Pittsburgh, lose your home stadium, @Tennesse, and then @Jacksonville is a nightmare scenario for any team. At this point, Schaub has demonstrated that he will have his down games, but he does still have a lot of potential. AJ has also demonstrated that he will have his down games (dropping a couple TD passes so far that I have seen), but last year he showed you what he is capable of. And you have to mention how Steve Slaton has come on both running the ball and catching out of the backfield. Teams will soon learn that there is more to beating the Houston offense than stopping Andre Johnson. Most importantly Houston is coming into the easy stretch of their schedule.


As for Greg Jennings, he has been outstanding this year thus far. Guy has almost 500 yards in 4 games and with a first year QB. I think he has exceeded all expectations at this point, but there are some concerns going forward. Greg Jennings may be lining up with a rookie QB this week and possibly in the future as well. We just don't know enough about Rodgers to make any type of case for the guy. That can't be overstated when you look at Houston and see Rosenfels sitting on the bench and what he did last year. We've seen what a backup QB can do for a top WR (Cassel/Randy Moss, Matt Moore/Steve Smith) and then we have seen what a good backup QB can do for a top WR(Warner/Fitzgerald)

Then we have to mention that GB has had zero running game thus far. Will the run game pick up hurting the passing game numbers or will teams start scheming to stop the pass knowing that Ryan Grant is hobbled and Brandon Jackson is just not very good. Then when you look at the division, it appears much tougher than many expected with the emergency of Chicago. I only see one or two really easy matchups for GB the rest of the season. And you have to notice how Rodgers is distributing the ball. Jennings leads the teams in receptions and is putting up damn near 20 YPR, but he has only scored in 1 game out of 4. Rodgers runs the ball near the goalline (2 TDs) and he spreads the ball near the goalline more than Favre did. (5 different players with TD receptions in 4 games)

Jennings held a lot of value last year because he was scoring in every game. This year I can really see Jennings having a Chad Johnson type year where he blows up in a few games here and there, but has good yardage but no TDs in others. Bottomline, he's a top10 WR with no doubts about it and a value for where he is drafted, but I think there is potential value to deal him now and grab a guy with more potential upside and in addition grab another player in the deal. I just don't think Jennings catching 6/120 a game is sustainable (96/1920 over 16) and the lack of TDs is concerning.

AJ has done far worse up to this point, but I think regression to the mean is much more in favor of Johnson improving versus Jennings maintaining his pace. I make that trade and grab myself an upgrade at RB or at QB and don't think twice.
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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby ampant » Sat Oct 04, 2008 6:50 pm

Let's examine their remaining schedules:

Below for each play I list their opponent, a smiley, and that opponent's current rank vs Fantasy WRs
Smileys indicate whether the opposing team ranks in the top, middle, or bottom 3rd for fanatsy defense vs WRs. ;-D = ranked 23rd-32nd, :-? = ranked 11th-22nd, :-t = ranked 1-10

Jennings
ATL :-? [19th]
@ SEA :-? [21st]
IND :-t [1st]
bye
@ TEN :-t [3rd]
@ MIN :-? [12th]
CHI ;-D [28th]
CAR :-t [6th]
HOU :-? [14th]
@ JAX :-t [10th]
@ CHI ;-D [28th]
DET ;-D [30th] (week 17 - probably doesn't matter)

Only a couple of cake matchups there, along with some real toughies. Of course, if Rodgers comes back healthy and continues to play well, it may not matter. MIN would have a much better ranking if they hadn't played GB. Too bad they play DET week 17

Johnson

IND :-t [1st]
MIA ;-D [32nd]
DET ;-D [30th]
CIN :-t [4th]
@ MIN :-? [12th]
BAL :-t [2nd]
@ IND :-t [1st]
@ CLE :-? [11th]
JAX :-t [10th]
@ GB :-? [13th]
TEN :-t [3rd]
@ OAK :-? [16th]
CHI ;-D [28th] (week 17 prolly wont count)

Well, AJ's schedule doesn't look much better. I am just doing this now. When I was listing the te4ams I was thinking Kensat was making a good point. But now that I look up the stats, I think I would still rather have Jennings. With the exception of MIA, DET, and CHI (which is week 17), every single opponent is ranked at least in the toughest half vs fantasy WRs. 5 of his remaining games are vs teams that are ranked 4th or better! :-o He has the benefit of already having played his bye, but I wonder if Schaub will be able to get him the ball while he's running for his life!.

I think my strategy is going to be to play AJ until he gets through DET, and then sell high for another WR with a better 2nd-half schedule. That's a lot of :-t smileys. And even his :-? are way closer to being :-t than ;-D
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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby Kensat30 » Sat Oct 04, 2008 8:35 pm

If you wanna rank the Indy defense the #1 vs. WRs and Chicago #28... be my guest.
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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby Free Bagel » Sat Oct 04, 2008 9:51 pm

I agree with what you're saying Kensat, but there are a few specific points I disagree with.

Kensat30 wrote:but [Jennings] has only scored in 1 game out of 4.


To be fair, he should have had one in another game where he was wide open in the end zone and Rodgers threw him the ball, only to have James Jones cut in front of him and "steal" the touchdown ;)

Kensat30 wrote:and [Rodgers] spreads the ball near the goalline more than Favre did.


Favre spread the ball around at the goaline like no one else. Owning both Jennings and Driver last year I figured I had a pretty good monopoly on GB TD receptions, but then I remember following on gamecenter or watching the games and seeing all kinds of random Ruvell Martins and such scoring TD after TD.

Kensat30 wrote:This year I can really see Jennings having a Chad Johnson type year where he blows up in a few games here and there, but has good yardage but no TDs in others


The major difference here is that Chad wasn't putting up 90-150 yards on those no TD weeks like Jennings has been. Chad had 5 games of 90+ in 2006 and 6 games of 90+ in 2007. Jennings has 4 games of 90+ in the first 4 weeks this year.

Kensat30 wrote:I just don't think Jennings catching 6/120 a game is sustainable


Last year people kept saying that scoring a touchdown every game with only 3 catches and 6 targets wasn't sustainable either, and as we know he kept doing it all year long. Obviously he won't end up with 2000 yards receiving, but I don't think he'll end up only scoring in one out of every four games either if Rodgers is playing, so those should balance out.

Jennings is one of the more underrated WRs I can ever remember seeing. I know it's hard to remove games, but barring the end of 2006 where he was playing hurt the guy has probably been the most consistent fantasy WR in the NFL. It just doesn't look good, every week it looks flukey for some reason (and I agree, even I'm not as high on him as his numbers dictate I should be), but the production continues to be there week after week after week after week after week, yet people still resist. Again, even I'm guilty. Jennings has done for two and a half seasons what Andre Johnson did for a measely 8 games, yet many people are still higher on AJ than Jennings.
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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby ampant » Sat Oct 04, 2008 10:13 pm

Kensat30 wrote:If you wanna rank the Indy defense the #1 vs. WRs and Chicago #28... be my guest.


Those aren't my opinions. Those are stats based on actual points yielded to fantasy WRs to date this year. IND has let people run all over them, but hasn't yielded a passing TD so far this season. IND is averaging a grand total of 60 passing yards/game to WRs. It shouldn't surprise you. . . .at the end of last year IND were ranked #2 vs fantasy WRs, were #1 in 2006, and #7 in 2005. All states based on standard scoring with 6pt/td, and 1pt/10 yards

As far as CHI goes, they have allowed more passing yards to WRs this year than everybody but the Saints and the Rams. So if you want to sit your WRs when they have CHI as a matchup, . . . be my guest.
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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby Azrael » Sun Oct 05, 2008 1:01 am

Obviously some of the rankings are blown out of proportion because of how bad some teams are against the pass or the run. If teams are horrible against the run like Indy and Cinci then part of being ranked so high against the pass is because teams just don't have to throw against you. Part of Indy being so high vs. the pass is because teams run the ball on them about 40 times a game and throw it about 22 times a game. Factor in that they've also played Chicago, Minn, and Jax, none of which throw the ball very well to begin with. Last year against Indy, Houston threw the ball over 30 times for 230+yards in both games.

Last year in Johnson's 8 games he faced defenses who ranking vs. the pass was 5th, 17th, 30th, 24th, 10th, 1st, 7th, 2nd, and 15th

Last year he demonstrated that he was one of those "match up immune" type WRs. I'm thinking that the combination of playing 3 very difficult teams to play on the road along with what happened in Houston just got him out of sorts. 4 home games in a row, especially ones against poor defenses, should cure that.

To me AJ is a buy low candidate. If I didn't already have him in all of my leagues I'd go get him now cheap.
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Re: Greg Jennings.. A top 5 WR? I think he has a case!

Postby ampant » Sun Oct 05, 2008 10:04 am

Azrael wrote:Obviously some of the rankings are blown out of proportion because of how bad some teams are against the pass or the run. If teams are horrible against the run like Indy and Cinci then part of being ranked so high against the pass is because teams just don't have to throw against you. Part of Indy being so high vs. the pass is because teams run the ball on them about 40 times a game and throw it about 22 times a game. Factor in that they've also played Chicago, Minn, and Jax, none of which throw the ball very well to begin with.


I am willing to agree that IND probably looks better than they are based on the quality of their previous opponents. But their pourous run defense means that Slaton is more likely to score near the end zone than AJ. And I'm not arguing that he isn't an Elite talent, just that he isn't going to crack the top 5. As long as they are both healthy and have their QBs, Jennings will end the year with more fantasy points. Like I said, I own both, so I hope AJ does return to last year's healthy form. I am sure he will have some big games, but he will also have his games where he will dissappear again, and I don't think he will cover enough ground to catch Jennings, who has been pretty consistently excellent. I could be wrong, but I don't think so. We'll see. ;-D
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