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Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 5 Matchups

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Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 5 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Mon Sep 29, 2008 11:14 am

Worst Run Defenses (Rank, Yds. Allowed, Yds/game, Rushing TDs given up)

27 Houston Texans 480, 160.0, 7
28 Cincinnati Bengals 657, 164.2, 5
29 St. Louis Rams 664, 166.0, 7
30 Kansas City Chiefs 706, 176.5, 6
31 Indianapolis Colts 598, 199.3, 3
32 Detroit Lions 623, 207.7, 6

Matchups in week 5:
Texans vs. Colts (Joseph Addai)
Bengals @ Dallas (Marion Barber, Felix Jones)
Rams BYE WEEK
Chiefs @ Panthers (Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams)
Colts @ Texans (Steve Slaton)
Lions vs. Bears (Matt Forte)

Worst Pass Defenses (Rank, Yds. Allowed, Passing TDs given up)
27 St. Louis Rams 983, 245.8, 8
28 Chicago Bears 986, 246.5, 4
29 New Orleans Saints 997, 249.2, 5
30 New York Jets 1,060, 265.0, 7
31 Denver Broncos 1,104, 276.0, 7
32 San Diego Chargers 1,105, 276.2, 9

Matchups in week 5:
Rams BYE WEEK
Bears @ Lions (Jon Kitna, Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams)
Saints vs. Vikings (Bernard Berrian)
Jets BYE WEEK
Broncos vs. Bucs (Brian Griese, Antonio Bryant)
Chargers @ Dolphins (Chad Pennington, Anthony Fasano)

What does this all mean? It shows the worst run defenses and pass defenses from the first four weeks and the opponents they face in week 5. Although some caveats are in order:

  • While we now have four weeks worth of data for most teams with which to notice some trends and draw a few conclusions, statistically, this is still a small sample size and can be greatly influenced by whether a team has faced several strong rushing or passing offenses so far this year.
  • You should never bench your studs.
  • The Texans & Colts' statistics are based on only three games worth of data.
  • I like these tasty run matchups - I fully expect these RBs listed to go off. ;-D
  • Once again, I don't like these passing matchups AT ALL. Even with the favorable matchups, I'd be hard-pressed to start some of those quarterbacks and receivers. If you start someone like QB Gus Frerotte, WR Ike Hilliard, or WR Greg Camarillo and they do nothing, don't say you weren't warned.
So that's the info. Don't treat this data as gospel; however, if I've got a borderline roster sit/start decision or a flex spot, I may personally go with one of the favorable matchups shown. ;-D
(~);}

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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 5 Matchups

Postby kickureface » Mon Sep 29, 2008 11:46 pm

love these posts lung. it would be aweseome if you added in a -who to start for D- section :P.

never bench ur studs. agreed. but with westbrook as a stud, and slaton and forte against the 2 WORST run D's ever, what do i do!>?!?>!
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 5 Matchups

Postby DraftDodger » Tue Sep 30, 2008 2:17 am

I'd watch out in that KC/Panthers game. The Panthers' running game has been unspectacular, and KC just shut down Denver's running game, giving up barely over 100 yards and no touchdowns. Even if you "credit" KC's poorer pass defense with the run statistics, you have to consider that the Panthers may do the same, throw all over them but not do much on the ground, especially with Steve Smith back in the mix. I'd steer clear of Panthers' RBs this week.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 5 Matchups

Postby moochman » Tue Sep 30, 2008 10:40 am

DraftDodger wrote:I'd watch out in that KC/Panthers game. The Panthers' running game has been unspectacular, and KC just shut down Denver's running game, giving up barely over 100 yards and no touchdowns. Even if you "credit" KC's poorer pass defense with the run statistics, you have to consider that the Panthers may do the same, throw all over them but not do much on the ground, especially with Steve Smith back in the mix. I'd steer clear of Panthers' RBs this week.


The Broncos haven't exactly run on anybody this season, so I think that game should be discounted. I like Stewart to go for 100 and a TD at home vs the Chiefs.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 5 Matchups

Postby peterparker » Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:49 am

moochman wrote:The Broncos haven't exactly run on anybody this season, so I think that game should be discounted. I like Stewart to go for 100 and a TD at home vs the Chiefs.

My thoughts as well. I am trying to decide between Slaton and Stewart at RB2. Both KC and Indy have been very poor against the run.
Indy should be motivated as they are 1-2 coming off a bye after playing Chi, Min, and Jax; teams that can run well. While Hou are 0-3 however and should have extra motivation.
KC played worse teams who were still able to run and may be vulnerable after a big upset win vs Den.
I think both will perform similarly but Stewart has the advantage.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 5 Matchups

Postby Azrael » Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:58 am

I like Slaton over Stewart simply because Stewart is sill sharing with Deangelo. I'm considering going with Ronnie Brown myself in a TD heavy league over Stewart. I thought Carolina would do better myself against Atl on the ground but Delhomme had a big day. Could happen again.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 5 Matchups

Postby Flyn high again » Tue Sep 30, 2008 12:14 pm

Excellent thread. Thanks for putting the lists together so we can easily access them rather than having to search the FF sites.

Considering that Dallas lost last week while rarely running the ball [Barber 8 attempts for 26/Jones 0 attempts for 0], I think they are going to make a point of emphasizing the run this week. Barber and Felix Jones should both do well. Barber will get more carries and at least one TD. With a probable large Dallas lead, Jones should get some 4th quarter carries plus return yards. T.O. will get a TD or two on fewer looks which should keep him happy. Dallas should be all over the weak Bengals so Barber, Romo, T.O., Witten and Jones can all be played with high expectations.
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Re: Weak Defenses & Favorable Week 5 Matchups

Postby The Lung » Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:20 am

The Lung wrote:Worst Run Defenses (Rank, Yds. Allowed, Yds/game, Rushing TDs given up)

27 Houston Texans 480, 160.0, 7
28 Cincinnati Bengals 657, 164.2, 5
29 St. Louis Rams 664, 166.0, 7
30 Kansas City Chiefs 706, 176.5, 6
31 Indianapolis Colts 598, 199.3, 3
32 Detroit Lions 623, 207.7, 6

Matchups in week 5:
Texans vs. Colts (Joseph Addai)
Bengals @ Dallas (Marion Barber, Felix Jones)
Rams BYE WEEK
Chiefs @ Panthers (Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams)
Colts @ Texans (Steve Slaton)
Lions vs. Bears (Matt Forte)

Worst Pass Defenses (Rank, Yds. Allowed, Passing TDs given up)
27 St. Louis Rams 983, 245.8, 8
28 Chicago Bears 986, 246.5, 4
29 New Orleans Saints 997, 249.2, 5
30 New York Jets 1,060, 265.0, 7
31 Denver Broncos 1,104, 276.0, 7
32 San Diego Chargers 1,105, 276.2, 9

Matchups in week 5:
Rams BYE WEEK
Bears @ Lions (Jon Kitna, Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams)
Saints vs. Vikings (Bernard Berrian)
Jets BYE WEEK
Broncos vs. Bucs (Brian Griese, Antonio Bryant)
Chargers @ Dolphins (Chad Pennington, Anthony Fasano)

What does this all mean? It shows the worst run defenses and pass defenses from the first four weeks and the opponents they face in week 5. Although some caveats are in order:

  • While we now have four weeks worth of data for most teams with which to notice some trends and draw a few conclusions, statistically, this is still a small sample size and can be greatly influenced by whether a team has faced several strong rushing or passing offenses so far this year.
  • You should never bench your studs.
  • The Texans & Colts' statistics are based on only three games worth of data.
  • I like these tasty run matchups - I fully expect these RBs listed to go off. ;-D
  • Once again, I don't like these passing matchups AT ALL. Even with the favorable matchups, I'd be hard-pressed to start some of those quarterbacks and receivers. If you start someone like QB Gus Frerotte, WR Ike Hilliard, or WR Greg Camarillo and they do nothing, don't say you weren't warned.
So that's the info. Don't treat this data as gospel; however, if I've got a borderline roster sit/start decision or a flex spot, I may personally go with one of the favorable matchups shown. ;-D


If you started these players, here's how you did:

Joseph Addai: 74 yds, 1 TD
Marion Barber: 92 total yds; Felix Jones: 103 yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 80 yds; DeAngelo Williams: 148 total yds, 3 TDs
Steve Slaton: 94 yds, 2 TDs
Matt Forte: 61 total yds, 2 TDs


Jon Kitna: 74 yds (injured); Calvin Johnson: 16 yds; Roy Williams: 96 yds
Bernard Berrian: 110 yds, 1 TD; G. Frerotte: 222 yds, 1 TD
Brian Griese: 88 yds passing (injured); Antonio Bryant: 58 yds
Chad Pennington: 228 yds passing, 1 TD; Anthony Fasano: 47 yds; G. Camarillo: 68 yds, 1 TD

As expected, the running backs predicted to go off pretty much did almost across the board, and despite the favorable passing matchups, most players listed did not meet expectations.
(~);}

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