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Megatron's Value Sans Roy

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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby AllDay » Thu Oct 16, 2008 2:44 am

I think it goes up - especially if he can develop any sort of rapport with Orlovsky. I think there is diminishing returns going from double to triple coverage for the defense. Either way there are soft spots to exploit.

If his targets go up like people say they should you might see returns similar to Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson (other high target guys) when the connection is clicking. A WR2/3 type with as much WR1 potential as anyone.

He seems to get shaken up a lot. I'm worried about him this week.
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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby Dan Lambskin » Thu Oct 16, 2008 8:51 am

i'm gonna say it stays pretty close to the same, what i DONT think you'll see is anymore 2 catches for 24 yards type days out of the sheer volume of targets...i can see a bad week being more like 60-70 yards with no TD's and i'm sure he'll still put up his share of 100+ w/ a TD days

FWIW i expect the Lions to turn the QB job over to Drew Stanton, possibly as soon as next weekend (they'll need to muster some excitement to sell out Ford Field, and local boy Drew Stanton's 1st start sure would do it)
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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby moochman » Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:25 am

2ksports wrote:
RWLongy4 wrote:Orlovsky, though inexperienced is no worse than kitna so i wouldn't take any value from him just because of that. The big thing is that Calvin will see a lot more double teams than before, but I still think more balls will be thrown his way, particularly in the red zone. I would expect his value goes up a bit because of the trade. Another something to look out for if you are in a deeper league is Mike Furrey. Before Calvin was in Detroit Furrey put up great numbers as a possesion guy (something like 98 catches, don't feel like looking it up), so that might make for a valuable fantasy option.


Kitna is not that good, but those 2 don't even belong in the same sentence. The Lions are like the Chiefs without a stud running back or any resemblance of a running game. In addition, Detroit has a horrendous defense that almost gaurantees them no chance of controlling TOP. Kitna going down means shorter drives and less possessions for the offense, and less stats all around. McDonald and Furrey are not worth anything other than a fill-in play for a bye week in a 12-teamer. I am fairly convinced that Calvin Johnson's value goes down with the fall of Kitna and Williams. The only type of league he can possibly gain value is a PPR.


Franchises value would have lept up would the Lions have kept Kitna. Orlovsky or Stanton will only hurt the overall O and that will reduce the chances Cal will see. Even though Orolsky has a strong throwing arm, he lacks any experience and that is worth more on a team like the Lions. I can see Ds forcing him to throw, putting tons of pressure on him, and he or Staton start to either lock onto Megs or look for that check-down receiver.
By placing Kitna on IR the Lions now have a chance to watch both QBs play awful until they get hurt. That won't help Megatron's value.
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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby BlueBandit24 » Thu Oct 16, 2008 12:45 pm

One positive that I saw in watching last week's game was that Orlovsky looked his way a lot. He was targeted on several deep routes and the Vikings were simply unable to cover him, as he got some long ones and drew several interference penalties. Orlovsky didn't look half bad, and even though the Vikings came out of the gates napping he did have his moments. Not nearly sold on him but I agree with most here that Calvin should still be a decent WR2 play with upside beyond that.
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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Oct 16, 2008 1:35 pm

I think full-on QB implosion is a real possibility in Detroit right now. Actually I think it is probably likely.

This would kill Megatron's value on a week to week basis. The guy would become a risky WR3 because you don't know if he can break a big play in any given week. Hell, at this point I don't know if Detroit can get in the redzone in any given week. This week against Houston will be the litmus test of whether or not you can even rely on Megatron at all IMO.

This is like the Randy Moss game against SF. If Calvin Johnson can't get it done against Houston, abandon all hope of starting this guy AT ALL for the rest of the year. Bad game against Houston = SELL HIGH.
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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby Kareighuis » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:42 am

The most bizarre thing happened in Houston Sunday. I picked up the Texans' defense in a number of leagues, anticipating they'd rip apart the Kitties. until Orlovsky suddenly got his feet under him.

Everything was going as planned- until Detroit's constant (and largely ineffective) ground game netted a 47 yards and a TD in 2 plays. Cal only got two receptions, one of which was a 96 yard TD. It'll be interesting to see what the tareting total was.
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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby AllDay » Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:07 am

One the bright side Orlovsky commented he's got to get the ball to Calvin more.

That was ridiculous. You find ways to get him the freaking ball.

I don't even feel confident starting him - but I suppose I will continue to hoping they figure it out soon.
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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby FatFoot » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:51 pm

That is HYSTERICAL.

I started 3 stud WRs. Two of them got me ZERO, one of them got only 2 catches, but got me 29 points.

I'm concerned, but not concerned enough to take him out of my lineup. I can not argue with 29 points.
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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby moochman » Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:48 am

FatFoot wrote:That is HYSTERICAL.

I started 3 stud WRs. Two of them got me ZERO, one of them got only 2 catches, but got me 29 points.

I'm concerned, but not concerned enough to take him out of my lineup. I can not argue with 29 points.


I am of two minds on this. Either the Lions will look to get the ball to Calvin much much more and he will do great, or teams will double cover and get more physical with Calvin on the line and he won't be as open forcing the Lions to get comfortably cute and throw to Furrey and McDonald. Never know which way it will go with this sad sack franchise, but you cannot not play Calvin.
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Re: Megatron's Value Sans Roy

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:08 pm

I think Calvin will be an up and down WR2 for the rest of the season, call it top20 going forawrd.

Few big weeks like last week and a few clunkers.

Orvolosky did not look good at all to me. This guy is in over his head and I think it's likely that we will see Stanton come in at some point towards the end of the season just to get him a little experience. That said, Calvin can break plays by himself and he can turn the NFL game into playground ball at times. We saw that in the jump ball at the end of the half and on the big play where he beat his man by 10 yards running a go route.

You should not be able to beat ANYBODY in the NFL by a 10 yard margin on a go route, but this is one of two guys who can do it. In just like the other guy, Calvin is going to boom and bust going forward depending on whether or not his QB can get him the ball so he can make some plays.
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