Kensat30 wrote:Reminds me a lot of the Julius Jones/Marion Barber situation. Except in this case the "Julius" is the talent and the "Barber" is the average player.
I favor Chris Johnson out of the two. Go with the guy getting the carries. Tennessee is good and all, but you can't count on them getting into the 5 yard line every week and giving Lendale 2 or 3 chances to score. What you can count on is them giving Chris Johnson 15-20+ touches a week and him getting you double digit points more often than not.
You want the guy averaging 50 yards and 1.3 TD a game for the rest of the season?
You want the guy averaging 100 yards and .7 TD a game for the rest of the season?
Lendale is on pace for 856 yards and 21 TDs.
Chris Johnson is on pace for 1659 yards and 11 TDs.
For me it's not that hard of a choice. There really aren't that many RBs who go for 800/21 in the season in the NFL history books. But there are PLENTY of 1600/11 RBs and they are usually end up in the fantasy top5 or top6.
Ok, my ? to the area bolded is why not? Barber made a killing off stealing TDs (although he did catch alot more passes) to the tune of 15 or 16 total. It's not like White scored 3 or 4 close range TDs in 1 game and that's skewing his projection. He's score a TD from the 1 or 2 yard line in each game but Baltimore. I believe your extrapolations are actually slightly out of whack due to Johnson getting a 1 yard TD against Minnesota when White came out of the game for an equipment issue. Actually the play before White was in and moved the ball from the 2 to the 1. So it's not like they had Johnson in that package to begin with either. This likely would have been his 9th score. 6 of his 8TDs have come from 2 yards or less. 1 was a 6 yarder and 1 was that 80 yard marathon.
If we give that TD to White (again I know we can't give and take away stats from players but to extrapolate that TD in Johnsons favor is not correct), then the projections go from 21/11 to 24/8. I see Johnson as actually scoring 7-9 total TDs and White pushing 20. But anyway, I like the input.
How many TDs did Barber have playing on a Romo/TO offense? Dallas is in a shootout basically every single game. I think it's just impossibly tough to become a top end RB with less than 50% of the carries for your team unless you are receiving and insane amount of receptions. And even then, I think the wild up and down swings when you get zero TD games versus 2 or 3 TD games and only 50 yards can kill you in a head to head league.
Tennessee is led by Kerry Collins and the top WR is Justin Gage. And Justin Gage is hurt right now. The defense is playing out of this world, but all it takes is one Albert Haynesworth injury and I think those consistent 1 yard TDs dry up real fast.
Lendale White is a guy that is seeing like 12 carries a game right now. He HAS to score a TD to have any value. Up to this point he has been getting those TDs, but we have also seen Chris Johnson come in and score from close up both in the receiving and running game. I believe in addition to the 1 yard TD you mention, Johnson also has like a 4 yard reception and a 7 yard run. White is getting the majority of the goalline carries, but not all of them. And 12 TDS from RBs through 6 games should like a major anomaly to me.
Maybe this is a new day in the NFL that goes back to the old 100% RBBC NFL where guys can run in 15 scores and stay below 1000 yards, but that is not the NFL that I am used to. Lendale White can continue to be a good fantasy player, but I think the odds point to Chris Johnson being the guy who will consistently help your fantasy team. In a TD only league, Lendale White is money. But in a standard head to head league, those 3-5 point weeks will help your team to a loss.