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Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby waterproof » Tue Nov 11, 2008 10:09 pm

dmacblue wrote:At 30-1 on Betfair I can 'sell' back at a lower price if as i believe they perform well.

Betfair site:
Our software has detected that you may be accessing the Betfair website from a country that Betfair does not accept bets.
You may view the Betfair site, but will not be able to place any bets.

What's up with that? Are you in the US?
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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby BritSox » Tue Nov 11, 2008 10:48 pm

Yeah, 30-1 would mean a team's got a perfectly average chance of winning it all (actually, 29-1, but close enough... betting odds are stated as 'number of times it doesn't happen-number it does,' not 'total chances-times it happens).

So Dallas has better-than-average talent, but three other better than average teams in their division. I'd say I'd put Dallas smack bang in the middle of the pack right now, so it's just about right.

Though it is definitely possible to make a killing on British bookies with American sports. There's one or two things most weeks that seem out of whack. College is usually better value than the NFL, which is better known over here, though. For instance, they've got Minny as a two-touchdown underdog to Wisky, which given Wisky are 2-5 in conference strikes me as great value.

waterproof wrote:
dmacblue wrote:At 30-1 on Betfair I can 'sell' back at a lower price if as i believe they perform well.

Betfair site:
Our software has detected that you may be accessing the Betfair website from a country that Betfair does not accept bets.
You may view the Betfair site, but will not be able to place any bets.

What's up with that? Are you in the US?



That would be it. They block American ISPs. Try using a proxy server in Canada.
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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby dream_017 » Tue Nov 11, 2008 11:12 pm

dmacblue wrote:
dream_017 wrote::-?
What would you suggest the odds be for a team that is currently not in the playoffs if they started today.


Well I'm not betting on them being in the playoffs today, and your example is a touch distorted; you should be an a political analyst on Fox ;-D

Look, i dont think they WILL win the Superbowl, I am saying that I think they have every chance of getting into the playoffs. They are right on the bubble now, and they have Romo returning.

They are somehow longer odds than Philly; I just smell value that's all. ;-D

At 30-1 on Betfair I can 'sell' back at a lower price if as i believe they perform well.

So let me get this straight. The odds of 30-1 are that they will win the Super Bowl. You think that is pretty good odds....because you don't think they will win the Super Bowl, but have every chance to get into the playoffs. :-? :-?

I didn't say that anyone was betting on them being in the playoffs today....I asked what do you think the odds should be for a team that is not currently in the playoffs if they started today.
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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby dmacblue » Wed Nov 12, 2008 12:13 am

Dream - Correct, I don't think they WILL win the Superbowl, but I think they have a better than 30-1 chance of doing so.

I also don't think Detroit will win a game this year, but if someone offered me 30-1, I bet on that also.

Just like I dont think the GOP have any real hope of a Presidential election victory 2012, but if someone offered me 30-1 I accept the bet.

It aint about whether you think it will happen, its about comparing your degree of liklihood compared to the bookmakers feeling.

I dont think you can simplify it by saying 'a team that is not currently in the playoff spot right now ' because Dallas are clearly a far better team than other teams with the same or better records.

I think 15-1 would still be a fairer reflective price, 30's is simply great value in my eyes.
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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby dmacblue » Wed Nov 12, 2008 12:18 am

waterproof wrote:
dmacblue wrote:At 30-1 on Betfair I can 'sell' back at a lower price if as i believe they perform well.

Betfair site:
Our software has detected that you may be accessing the Betfair website from a country that Betfair does not accept bets.
You may view the Betfair site, but will not be able to place any bets.

What's up with that? Are you in the US?


Yes, Im in USA, originally from UK where I have a couple of betting accounts.

You can view Betfair from here, just cannot make transctions, or so i believe as Ive never had the need to do so. It's just a FAR FAR better value service than Vegas or main street bookmakers in England.
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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Nov 12, 2008 3:48 am

I like Dallas down the stretch.

I think this year they may have finally bottomed out at the right time. The past few seasons they only started playing like this at the very end of the year. With Romo back and a fire under their asses, I could see a 6 win run happening.
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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby Dan Lambskin » Wed Nov 12, 2008 8:58 am

what odds to the London Silly Nannies have?
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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby dream_017 » Wed Nov 12, 2008 9:48 am

dmacblue wrote:Dream - Correct, I don't think they WILL win the Superbowl, but I think they have a better than 30-1 chance of doing so.

I also don't think Detroit will win a game this year, but if someone offered me 30-1, I bet on that also.

Just like I dont think the GOP have any real hope of a Presidential election victory 2012, but if someone offered me 30-1 I accept the bet.

It aint about whether you think it will happen, its about comparing your degree of liklihood compared to the bookmakers feeling.

I dont think you can simplify it by saying 'a team that is not currently in the playoff spot right now ' because Dallas are clearly a far better team than other teams with the same or better records.

I think 15-1 would still be a fairer reflective price, 30's is simply great value in my eyes.

See that is what odds are. They are made to entice you to bet. Because the Cowboys have a good schedule and a chance to make the playoffs and run the table once they get in, doesn't mean that they set the odds at 5-2. Nobody would bet that. They want to make money, so offereing 30-1 would get you to bet...and my guess you would lose. Currently my book has them at 20-1.
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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby dmacblue » Wed Nov 12, 2008 10:43 am

Dream - I understand the points re: the laying of odds you make in your last message, and agree with them. I only think its a touch different in Dallas case simply cos Im suprised the bookmakers are looking to atract money for Dallas quite as much as in general examples. This is because Dallas drew plenty of pre season and early season bet action by

a) Being one of the top 5 teams; generally accepted by all

b) Being the most well known & popular team (weird, but true, folks bet on their favorites. heart over head)


Its the same thing when the English football team qualify for the World Cup; they are always quoted at too low a price, ridiculously so. this is because

a) the good point you made earlier about Bookies balancing their risk/reward by laying odds acordingly.

b) English fans will bet with their hearts and take 8-1, when an objective outlook should have them at maybes 15-1. Why offer the bettor a higher price than you need to.

If one can step back and bet logically, disassociating head and heart , as well as weighing liklihood vs value it makes things a lot eaiser.

;-D
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Re: Cowboys 30-1 with British bookmakers!

Postby dmacblue » Mon Nov 17, 2008 1:33 pm

after last night svictory in Washington, the Cowboys are now down to 17-1. Allowing for bookmakers 'juice' I can sell at 20's giving a clear 10 point profit.

Now I only had $25 on them at 30's so i could fly to UK and avoid my neighborhood Cowboyphile natives if they win it, so i am not gonna cash out, but i knew it was too good a bet at the time.

Sweeeeeeet
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