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Week 13 Games Talk

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Re: Week 13 Games Talk

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Sun Nov 30, 2008 11:02 am

deerayfan072 wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:Deeray, I dislike giving USC a title shot as much as anyone because I don't think they deserved it. However, rather than comparing them to Utah, I'll compare them to the dreaded big 10 team: Penn St. I'll start off by saying that I don't care that a big 10 team has gotten smoked in the title game the last 2 years. It doesn't matter to me for a couple reasons:

1) Penn St. shouldn't be penalized for what Ohio St. did (or failed to do) each of the last couple years
2) Just because the big 10 champion was bad last year doesn't mean they are bad this year
3) I base who should get into the national championship only on what they have done this year, not what has happened in previous years (also part of the reason I don't give USC the natural bias that a lot of people do)

Now, lets compare USC and Penn St:

They both have one loss (I go into detail later). They both won a relatively weak conference that doesn't have a championship game.

SOS:
Penn St.- 44
USC- 53
Advantage goes to Penn St.

Common opponents: Oregon St and Ohio St

Penn St. destroyed Oregon St. while USC lost to them
USC destroyed Ohio St (albeit without OSU's best player) whereas Penn St. beat them in a close one (with Beanie Wells).
Common opponents overall: advantage goes to Penn St.

Who did the lose to:

Penn St. lost to Iowa
USC lost to Oregon St.
Advantage goes to USC

Big wins:

Penn St. beat Ohio St. by 7 and beat both Michigan St. and Oregon St. by 31
USC beat Ohio St. by 32 and Oregon by 34.
Advantage goes to Penn St.

Computer rankings:

Penn St. is 7th
USC is 8th
Advantage goes to Penn St.

Really, the best argument you have for USC against Penn St. is that you have watched college football and you think that USC could beat them and that USC is a better team than them. The BCS is subjective as it is already. Putting a team in the championship game merely because they looked good when you watched them on tv makes a bad system worse. Based on what each team has done on the field, Penn St. should get into the national championship over USC.


How do the polls work again? Don't people watch games and put teams where they think they should be based on what they saw on the field? That is what I am doing. IMO, USC would dominate PSU. Looks like we will get to see that game too, so we will see if my eye test stands the test.


I'm not saying I think Penn St. can beat USC, because I don't think that they can. What I'm saying is that based on what they've done this year, they're more deserving of a national championship bid than USC.

Right now it seems to me that your argument is that USC is simply a better team than Penn St, so let me ask you this: What if USC had 2 losses? Surely, they'd still be that same team that you think can run Penn St. off the field. Would they still be more deserving than Penn St. to get into the championship game? Because with 2 losses, you could just as easily say that you've watched them and that you think they're a better team, yet I'm pretty sure that you'll say a 2 loss USC shouldn't get in over a 1 loss USC. Now, lets look at why you'd say that. You'd likely say that a team that's lost 2 times simply has not done enough on the field to get in over that 1 loss team who you think is worse, and you'd be right. But at that point, you are using what they did on the field as your justification, rather than how good you think each team is.

So here's my real question to you: Where's the cutoff? When comparing teams with the same number of losses, should you only look at who you think is better, rather than what they've done on the field? If based on watching the teams play I said that I thought USC looked better than your beloved Gators (this is hypothetical), should I rank USC ahead of them?
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Re: Week 13 Games Talk

Postby Free Bagel » Sun Nov 30, 2008 12:26 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:So here's my real question to you: Where's the cutoff? When comparing teams with the same number of losses, should you only look at who you think is better, rather than what they've done on the field? If based on watching the teams play I said that I thought USC looked better than your beloved Gators (this is hypothetical), should I rank USC ahead of them?


This brings up an interesting point. Where do you rank USC, Utah, and Penn State compared to Florida?

Because at this point in the year, Florida's resume going by you/husker's method SUCKS. When the new rankings come out, they will have beaten only one ranked team, and that team will be outside the top 15. You're picking and choosing where you use that just like Huskr did with LSU (which he was right about, btw), and using half a method in random instances and half another in other instances is much more shaky than using a method that you don't agree with (which happens to be the same method that 95% of voters use themselves).
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Re: Week 13 Games Talk

Postby HskrPwr13 » Sun Nov 30, 2008 12:33 pm

Good discussion, guys. Right off the bat, I'm sure you all do, but just assume " ;-D " when I'm "arguing" unless I emoticon something else.

I agree that are philosophies are different. Mine is the way it is because if everyone I thought was the better team actually proved it on the field, I'd be wealthier than Warren Buffet. My eyes have deceived me many times.

As far as USC, I can see where one would see there no.1 D ranking and think that automatically qualifies them as a top team. At the beginning of the season, I could see where USC had passed the eye test. But considering OSU was playing pretty poorly then and UVA has turned out to be an also-ran, I'm curious to what you've seen since then, in comparison to the teams they've played, that has proven to your eyes that this D is as good as their numbers suggest. ASU, WSU, UW, UofA, Stanford, ND, my Blackshirt defense would look pretty dominant against these teams, and frankly for some of these games, the USC offense looked pretty darned average. Ultimately, I too think USC could be Utah. I'd give it 65%/35% in favor of USC. Your USC percentage would probably be higher. My problem is if they cant be the "good USC" every week against these dog teams, they dont deserve to be rewarded in the same way as if they had consistently played at a top level evey week. My eyes tell me that Texas, OU, FLA, 'Bama have looked like world beaters just about every week where USC has perhaps played down to their opponents. I shall not "reward" them for that.
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Re: Week 13 Games Talk

Postby Free Bagel » Sun Nov 30, 2008 12:46 pm

HskrPwr13 wrote:USC has perhaps played down to their opponents. I shall not "reward" them for that.


I'm not that high on USC, but Florida played down to their opponents in 2006, and we saw how that worked out in the title game.

Great defenses don't always win pretty. Unfortunately, we're stuck in a system where you have to.
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Re: Week 13 Games Talk

Postby BritSox » Sun Nov 30, 2008 3:52 pm

I find this discussion amusing, since I'm currently in a heated argument with a guy who says that TCU would 'frogstomp' SC. He reckons TCU would win by at least two scores, I reckon USC would win by 30 points.
"I can't say that. I'd have to say having Ryan Leaf quarterback us to a 1-15 record is probably the biggest challenge."

Rodney Harrison, on whether losing Tom Brady to injury was the greatest challenge he has faced in football.
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Re: Week 13 Games Talk

Postby deerayfan072 » Sun Nov 30, 2008 5:18 pm

BritSox wrote:I find this discussion amusing, since I'm currently in a heated argument with a guy who says that TCU would 'frogstomp' SC. He reckons TCU would win by at least two scores, I reckon USC would win by 30 points.



I agree with you ;-) :-D
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Re: Week 13 Games Talk

Postby HskrPwr13 » Sun Nov 30, 2008 7:14 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:So here's my real question to you: Where's the cutoff? When comparing teams with the same number of losses, should you only look at who you think is better, rather than what they've done on the field? If based on watching the teams play I said that I thought USC looked better than your beloved Gators (this is hypothetical), should I rank USC ahead of them?


This brings up an interesting point. Where do you rank USC, Utah, and Penn State compared to Florida?

Because at this point in the year, Florida's resume going by you/husker's method SUCKS. When the new rankings come out, they will have beaten only one ranked team, and that team will be outside the top 15. You're picking and choosing where you use that just like Huskr did with LSU (which he was right about, btw), and using half a method in random instances and half another in other instances is much more shaky than using a method that you don't agree with (which happens to be the same method that 95% of voters use themselves).


Maybe I'm misreading this. Is my integrity being questioned? I dont recall where I've used "my" system for some teams and not others. If I missed a team and was called on it, I made the correction if warranted.

Also, yes, based on "my" system, I have Fla #6. Assuming no upsets, #4 is probably as high as they could climb. And I wouldnt necessarily be wrong except to those that believe their eyes have told them something different.
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Re: Week 13 Games Talk

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Sun Nov 30, 2008 8:36 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:So here's my real question to you: Where's the cutoff? When comparing teams with the same number of losses, should you only look at who you think is better, rather than what they've done on the field? If based on watching the teams play I said that I thought USC looked better than your beloved Gators (this is hypothetical), should I rank USC ahead of them?


This brings up an interesting point. Where do you rank USC, Utah, and Penn State compared to Florida?

Because at this point in the year, Florida's resume going by you/husker's method SUCKS. When the new rankings come out, they will have beaten only one ranked team, and that team will be outside the top 15. You're picking and choosing where you use that just like Huskr did with LSU (which he was right about, btw), and using half a method in random instances and half another in other instances is much more shaky than using a method that you don't agree with (which happens to be the same method that 95% of voters use themselves).


I have Florida as #4 right now (behind Bama, Texas, and Oklahoma). Perhaps that's a bit high, but it really doesn't matter and here's why: They play the #1 team in the nation in the SEC championship. If they win, then that should be enough to put them into the top 2 regardless of whether you have them at 2 or 6 right now and if they lose, they're a 2 loss team who is 2nd in the SEC so they go to a BCS game anyway, because Bama will be in the championship. So really, it doesn't matter that much where Florida is ranked right now, unless you are trying to argue that Texas should play Oklahoma in the national championship in the event that Florida beats Bama.
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