I didn't add up last week's stuff because I've been in Vegas since the weekend and am getting ready for Thanksgiving, but it looked like a pretty mediocre week at first glance. Never would have predicted 4 TDs for Turner. Anyways, onto the fun stuff.
Jay Cutler. He sure as heck better bounce back, because last week's #s made me cry. The Jets pass D should be a welcome sight for him, especially since he may be forced to air it out with a potential slobberknocker + heavy run stopping team. 270 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Matt Ryan. As you've all figured out, this guy is going to be a stud in real life for years to come. His success in real life still gives him mediocre fantasy #s, but he should get good yardage and a score against an SD pass D that's frankly bad. 250 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Ben Roethlisberger. Looking at this for a few reasons. If Willie Parker is out, Moore comes in, and Moore seems to be better at pass catching than Parker but worse at running, which bodes well for Ben. Two, people who regularly read this know how I feel about New England's pass D. In his past 5 games, Ben has thrown for 2 TD and 8 INT in his last 5 games, and he needs to turn it around soon. This could be the game. 240 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Anthony Gonzalez. I feel like Gonzalez will turn into the #2 receiver down the stretch. Marvin has been an all time great receiver, but he's clearly not anything close to the same guy he was, and Peyton needs to spread the ball somewhere. Gonzalez is pretty hard to judge simply because he's so sporadic, but I think he'll turn it on when he needs to. 4 rec, 50 yds, 1 TD
Bernard Berrian. He's been an absolute failure the past 3 weeks, with something like 3 or 4 receptions, low yardage and no scores total. But he plays his old team again, his team is tied for the division lead with them, and he did well against them last time out. If he can't show SOMETHING here, I'm concerned. 4 rec, 60 yds, 1 TD
Lee Evans. Trent Edwards probably got his head slapped by his mother, because he sure rounded back to decent form in a hurry, which bodes well for Evans. Evans is also usually pretty explosive towards the end of the season, and this KC/SF back to back run should help his totals. 5 rec, 100 yds
Chris Johnson. Teams have been stuffing the run pretty well against the Titans, and look what's happened. Fortunately for CJ, Fisher has 'rededicated the Titans to the run game', and they play Detroit, who's about as incapable of stacking the box as anyone. A good time to own him for all on the playoff bubble. 100 yds, 1 TD
Ronnie Brown. Too much about this week not to like. It seems like there's a strong correlation between run success and Miami's success, which I assume Sparano knows. Brown plays the D that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns, and he's the lock for 15+ touches, not Ricky. Ronnie's also had some dismal yardage since about Week 4 save for one 100 yard performance, and this is the right time and place to break back out if Miami wants to stay in playoff contention. 75 yds, 1 TD
Kevin Smith. Predicting a boom against the Titans run D. Maybe I have gone nuts. However, they've allowed over 100 yards per game to backs the last 5 weeks, over a TD per game in that span, VandenBosch is hurt, and the Titans also allow plenty of receptions to the position. The Lions will also have to run it early unless they're purposely trying to abandon the run altogether, which is basically mailing it in. If you're desperate, the matchup may not be as bad as it seems. 80 yds, 1 TD
D/ST (per request)
Oakland Raiders. I don't want to say someone obvious like the Titans, but the Raiders have a nice matchup, and if they play like they did last week, it could work well for owners, especially in a divisional game. Thigpen has been playing well, but he does get sacked, and Oakland has an above average pass D (ask Cutler). Should net you a couple sacks and maybe a couple picks here, and I'm guessing KC scores in the low 20s. If that's suitable for you, plug 'em in.
Tyler Thigpen. I fully expect the KC run game to work against Oakland, and therefore simply don't expect gaudy numbers for Thigpen. He's put up about 12 TDs in his last 5 games along with good yardage, which is great, but I expect that to come back down a bit here. 230 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Jake Delhomme. If I'm the Green Bay secondary, I'm pissed off, and taking it out on my next opponent, who happens to be Jake Delhomme. If Green Bay feels like making the playoffs this year, they also need a win here. Don't expect a Drew Brees line, especially with Jake on the road with a loud Lambeau crowd. 205 yds, 1 TD
Jason Campbell. Campbell couldn't put up good numbers against Seattle, and NYG confused the heck out of him in his last game against them, although to be fair, it was his first game with a new coach and system. Regardless, the G-men usually take more than they give, and that trend should continue in a pretty hot divisional matchup. 215 yds, 1 TD
Marques Colston. The Bucs are fairly stingy with #1 WRs, and Brees seemed to clearly favor Lance Moo last week over Colston. He's really hard to bench, but it seems like its either a big week or a small week with him since coming back. Let's give him a mediocre one. 4 rec, 60 yds
Braylon 'Mr. Dropsy' Edwards. The Colts can take away the deep pass, Braylon has to re-establish himself with DA, and he's gotta be on pace for most drops in a season. He already has about 16. Yipes. 4 rec, 60 yds
Chad Johnson. He's totally in the doghouse and he plays Baltimore with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to him. Not much else to say. 3 rec, 40 yds
Willie Parker. Assuming he plays, he plays New England's run D, who can match up with fast backs fairly well provided they decide to tackle. I think Ben will need to take this game upon himself, so no gaudy expectations here. 70 yds
Deuce Mcallister. Deuce went out with a bang last week, but with Reggie Bush coming back and Pierre Thomas showing he's the real #2 in town, Deuce is nothing more than a fan favorite at this point. And he's on the road against Tampa Bay. Where he's not a fan favorite. 20 yds
Peyton Hillis. You, sir, are stealing Cutler's touchdowns. And you, sir, will stop this week, because Kris Jenkins will eat you for breakfast. 60 yds.
by jake_twothousandfive » Thu Nov 27, 2008 12:54 pm
Matt Cassel (vs. Steelers) The man has proven that he has plenty of ability. He has grown much more comfortable in the pocket and is now comfortable just throwing the ball up for Moss and letting him make a play. While he deserves a lot of the credit for his improved play, his teammates also deserve a lot of credit. The Patriots have improved because they have improved together as a team. As such, the improvement of the players around him (most notably the offensive line) and what must be phenominal coaching have greatly helped his cause.
Despite all that he has going for him, he faces an incredibly difficult task this week against what is (IMO without question) the best defense in the league. The Steelers are first in the league against the rush (2.9 YPC and 66.5 YPG allowed) and first in the league against the pass (168.8 YPG allowed). Tomlin is a defensive minded coach and the Steelers are a defensive minded team. This is just way too difficult of a matchup for him to have another huge game.
Chad Pennington (@ STL) The Rams have been "holding" teams to just over 170 yards passing per game over the last three games. Why? When playing a team as dysfunctional as the Rams, the game is typically over so early that teams abandon the pass and focus on running the ball and ball control. Pennington simply won't have the attempts (unlike last week) to amass great fantasy numbers, despite what looks like a great matchup. --For the same reason I don't think Ted Ginn will have a big game, even given the recent loss of Camarillo.
Matt Forte (@ Min) The season ending injury of EJ Henderson had a noticeable negative effect on Minnesota's run D. However, linebackers Chad Greenway, Ben Leber, and Napolean Harris have all steped up very nicely (particulary Greenway) in his absense. This unit has remained elite despite the big loss. Have had decent success against this team (this would be a lot more noticeable if Minnesota didn't have one of the best run support/tackling corners in the league with Winfield) but power backs like Forte simply have no shot running into the Williams Wall. He'll need a touchdown or two to be serviceable in fantasy leagues, because the yardage won't be there.
Dwayne Bowe (@ Oak) Asomugha is a top 5 cover corner in the league and Oakland has an above average pass D overall. They have held top WRs to modest games at best: Brandon Marshall only 4 catches and 84 yards (great after catch), Ginn 4 catches 51 yards, Steve Smith 1 catch 9 yards, Roddy White 5 catches 54 yards, and Cotchery 1 catch 0 yards are some telling examples.
Now it should be noted that Oakland still has a below average defense overall. They display poor tackling skills and can be dominated by physical RBs. Because they are such poor tacklers WRs who excel after the catch (like Bowe) can put up decent numbers against them. Bowe's catches will be low, his TD chances are poor, and his only chance at good yardage will be to break off a couple of big gainers after the catch. All in all, I don't like his odds.
Braylon Edwards (vs. Colts) The Colts secondary limits the deep ball well and tackles well after the catch. Both are big aspects of Edwards game.
I don't think I need to go into too many details here. Edwards has had the case of the drops all year, he's in Romeo Crennel's doghouse, the Browns a struggling team overall, and they'll have to match the adjustment back to Derek Anderson at QB. Things do not look good.
I can list some BOOM picks if anyone likes what I've written here and wants to hear some additional thoughts.
Let's see what we have here...some of these look like they might be win/tie crosses, but for people like WRs and RBs, I may use things like receptions to help decide, since many leagues are PPR or .5 PPR.
Jay Cutler. Man, I loved watching this game. Even though my Pats played like butt, watching a division rival get lit up by my fantasy quarterback helps ease the pain.
Matt Ryan. Multiple scores, no turnovers. Can't ask for much more for a guy who feels like last year's David Garrard.
Ben Roethlisberger. I don't know whether to make this a win or a tie. On one hand, he threw for the scores and INTs I predicted. On the other hand, it was less yardage than I predicted, but that's only 2 points less in fantasy terms. I'm putting this here because he thwomped my team and I need to feel good about something about that game.
Bernard Berrian. 99 yard TD. Thank you Charles Tillman!
Lee Evans. Got about 20 yards less than I wanted, but the 7 catches are pretty nice.
Chris Johnson. Could have had a 300 yard day if Detroit had kept up at all in the score.
Tyler Thigpen. Glad I benched him in the leagues I have him in. Baaaad #s.
Jake Delhomme. How he had 175 yards while his team put up 35 I don't know, but still not a great fantasy day.
Jason Campbell. The Giants have this guy's number.
Braylon Edwards. Gonna be even uglier with Dorsey in.
Chad Johnson. This guy needs a good QB to be productive it seems. He's no Dwayne Bowe!
Willie Parker. 80 rush yards, no receiving yards. 1 more point than I predicted.
Deuce Mcallister. Pretty cheap pick on my part, but he's done this year.
Ronnie Brown. He had a TD but low yardage. This is me atoning for my Big Ben waffling.
Anthony Gonzalez. How Peyton put that line up against that D I'll never know.
Kevin Smith. Again, if I'd known there would be a 35-3 second quarter score, I would have put Culpepper up as a boom sooner than Smith.
Oakland D/ST. This just in: Oakland's D can't mask the offense's awfulness.
Marques Colston. Where did Lance Moo go?
Peyton Hillis. I haven't seen someone look that good against the Jets run D in a long time. I like it.