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Guess it's time for my medicine

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Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby Polar Bear » Mon Dec 01, 2008 12:01 am

Welp...

My experiment failed in the QB first league. I lost Brady early obviously, but Warner had a solid year in his place so there is really no excuses. My team wasn't all that competitive the 2nd half of the season. My receivers underperformed, which ended up killing me.

Overall it was a disappointing fantasy football season for me. I had a streak of never missing a playoff in all of the leagues I play in and this year I will be sitting out in 2 leagues. In one particular league I have been out of it since Halloween, which sucked. I run quite a few leagues during the season and I must that I have never seen so many fantasy flops in a season. Which was a bit shocking. There are always a few, but many of the 1st rounders didn't do what people thought they would.

I thought I should point out that the 2 leagues I missed in I had early 1st round picks. In the QB league I obviously took Brady and in the second league I took L.T 2nd overall.

In a 16 teamer I didn't draft a back until round 3 and landed Thomas Jones and Ronnie Brown until late. I got Aaron Rodgers pretty late and he has been very consistent throughout the year in that league. My 1st round pick of Randy Moss flopped, but the emergence of Lance Moore saved me.

Anyways. A few things I learned in fantasy football this year. Stuff I should have known, but didn't.

1. The 1st round is a complete crapshoot so don't put much emphasis on it, be sure to draft depth.

2. In PPR leagues, wait an extra round to draft WRs. Most people go for the bigger names like Moss, Owens, Wayne in the late 1st or early second. Guys like Welker, Bowe, and Roddy White are all guys I drafted later in drafts and ended up outperforming guys like Colston and Moss who went earlier.

3. Don't even waste a pick on a team defense. The 2005 Bears are dead. Play matchups and if possible try and pick up the defense that plays the raiders...unless it is the Broncos. Halfway through the QB league I ditched the chargers and just started going matchup and that was the only thing that kept me competitive in matches. The Colts gave me over 20 points this week.

4. Draft RBs that have weak QB play and good offensive lines and stay away from their receivers unless it is a PPR league.

5. If you play in a Cafe league then you can wait no longer than the late 2nd round before you start drafting RBs because these guys are absolutely insane with the backs. If i had the draft to do all over I would have taken Thomas Jones in the 3rd round, which I almost did, but thought that he would fall to me in the 4th until I saw that these guys had no problem drafting 3 backs in the first 4 rounds.

6. Unless it is a PPR league a QB that spreads the ball around actually hurts the value of their receivers. Colston has little value because Brees would throw to a refrigerator if that is what the defense gave him. I had Wayne and Colston on my team. which means that it is hard for either guy to have a big week on the same week because their QBs have so many targets.

7. The exact opposite of #6 with TEs. The more the offense spreads the ball around the more valuable the TE. Especially after the elite TEs are gone.

8. Until Al Davis dies, stay away from Oakland. Unless their Defense plays Fresno St. I doubt I will ever touch an Oakland player again. Zach Miller had a decent season at TE, but outside of that nobody was worth much. Sad to see the state of that once great franchise.

9. Every different draft requires a different draft strategy.

10. I really don't see the point of fantasy football experts. All I need is Mort with the injury report and I'm good to go.

If I had to draft again using a different strategy, knowing how cafe guys draft, I would deemphasize QBs and draft WR and RBs in the first 5 rounds. I almost draft Thomas Jones and Brandon Jacobs back to back in the draft, but instead I stubbornly went with a different strategy when I knew those guys were set up to have big years, which shows since I have both of them in a couple other leagues and I waited to draft them. Could have still landed guys like Welker and Bowe in rounds 4 and 5. That freaking Colston pick just burns me up. I hesitated with him because Brees throws the ball around so much. I usually try to avoid receivers on teams like that, but i didn't follow my instinct and listened to all the "experts."

So, in conclusion. I had fun and got my butt kicked. It would have been nice to see what would have happened if Brady had stayed healthy. I think I may have been able to get in the playoffs at least. But those are the breaks and that is part of the game.
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Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby dgan » Mon Dec 01, 2008 12:18 am

Hey don't beat yourself up too bad. There are a lot of LT and SJax owners out of the playoffs, too.

I drafted Brady as well, and I'm the second best team in my (normally) very competitive league. 10 team league, and we can start a QB in the flex, making the Brady loss that much more painful. This year, though, a couple of teams really took it to the chin and never got out of it. So there are really about 4 or 5 really good teams of which I am one.

I followed up Brady with MJD. I realized my error about 6 weeks in, after a couple huge games from MJD. I used the opportunity to trade for Boldin, who at the time was out with the jaw injury and status for the rest of the season was uncertain. Huge gamble paid off.

At QB, I followed up Brady with a late round pick of Trent Edwards. I also got Kerry Collins off waivers as soon as Young got hurt. Between the two, I've been good enough at that position.

The key was the RBs I got outside the first two rounds. Jacobs (3rd) and Forte (4th). (Obviously, the benefit of a 10 team league.)

The trick, as you say, is to have some draft history of who you're playing with. Your strategy can work, but only if you know that there will be RBs available to you at some point. One thing people become confused about is that it is only a "reach" if you could have taken that player with a later pick. If all those mid-tier RBs are going to be gone before your next pick, then you need to take one even if you feel there are good values at other positions.

Bottom line is you have to fill your starting roster with reliable players, and RBs are the least reliable, so you need more of them. That's why people put a higher priority on them. Now, if you know for sure (as was the case in my league) that you can get what you feel are reliable RBs in the 3rd and 4th round, drafting QB or WR early can work. Just make sure you don't screw yourself with depth. If you play in a RB frenzied league, you are better off just getting on for the ride because that means everyone else will be passing up good QBs and WRs too.

As for me, I've taken about all the injuries I can handle. One more key injury and my championship hopes become pretty dire.

Anyway, just wanted to give you a small vote of confidence before everyone else here rips you to shreds. :-b
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Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby shawngee03 » Mon Dec 01, 2008 2:44 pm

funny how you describe cafe leagues...as it is exactly how my 14 teamer is. its the most competitive and besides having 14 teams uses a flex also...so RBs are gold....and everybody else gets put on the backburner the first 3 rounds. i actually felt good about drafting kenny watson and jerious norwood.

and the same that you said...every league/draft is different...2 of my other leagues i know people will take QBs way too early and often so i have to go after one earlier than i normally would
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Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby LS2throwed » Mon Dec 01, 2008 2:54 pm

You actually did well in that league for losing Brady, again picking up Warner gave you similiar QB production anyway that you were expecting Brady to do, but had you not picked him up your season would of crashed and burn after a few weeks so much props for putting together what you did, going down to the final week is no shame in that...Your draft strategy wasn't the problem, it was just a crap shoot with you taking RB's, at the point you were drafting RB's you didn't have many options other then rookies and McFadden was your 1st RB which is obviously a hole to climb out of, had you taken Forte and Chris Johnson as your 1st two backs your season could of looked differently, sometimes you need a little luck ESPECIALLY when it comes to drafting rookies.


You had the right idea, attacking a RB with upside, but I would of went for guys like Lendale, Stewart, Forte, guys who were drafted later but were TD vultures, that way you don't have to bank on the production side of things so much...I agree with almost all of your points, cafe leagues are no joke with the RB's, but I knew that going in so I had my own personal insurance...Two of my early RB's were Earnest Graham and Jonathan Stewart and I thought that was plenty but picking up Deangelo later just to handcuff the Carolina backfield ended up paying off.


Thing is though majority of the league was balanced, and came down to the final week, would of loved to see the experiment had you kept Brady all year but for losing your 1st rd pick within minutes of week 1 I'd say you fared well, as did anyone else who drafted Brady and salvaged together a decent season...I can only imagine, I drafted Barber with majority of my 1st rd picks and he carried my teams, can't imagine him being a bust or getting hurt and still being as competitive, your 1st rd picks are not the be all end all, but very key to a sucessful team.
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Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby BigBadBrawler » Mon Dec 01, 2008 3:30 pm

Great analysis PB... ;-D
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Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby Azrael » Mon Dec 01, 2008 4:14 pm

4 is great advice and is what I usually look for. You can never plan or know about injuries of course. Sometimes you can see good O-lines (Jets and Minny for example) and sometimes you can't (Bears and Falcons). Many predicted Stewart would take over for DWill and the exact opposite happened.

5 is key also. If you know that your league likes RBs then you are really forced to make a decision and take them rather than trying VBD. It really doesn't matter if you have Moss, AJ, and Calvin if you are running guys like Kevin Smith and JStew out there every week. In my one league I grabbed Gore at 1.9 and then grabbed AJ, Marshall, and SSmith consecutively with my next 3 picks. By the time 5.9 rolled my best option was LenDale. Then Gates at 6.2. RBs and then QBs continued to fly off the board. The next best thing for me at 7.9 was Chris Johnson to "back up" LenDale. Guys like Roddy White and Calvin were still around in the 7th and 8th but I could pick them because my needs were so bad elsewhere. I've never seen backs fly off the board like that. Then in another league I was able to grab Turner at 5.2 and TJones at 6.9.
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Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby Polar Bear » Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:05 pm

Thanks for the glass half full comments LS2, but my record was deceiving. Outside of a couple big weeks, my team wasn't all that competitive. Especially my last win when I won with a whopping 70 points I believe. Hehe...70 point win. 90% of the league would have beat me that week.

Rookie RBs are a crapshoot and I really didn't know much about CJ and Forte until after the draft. I doubt I would have drafted Forte because I had been burned by Benson and had little faith in the Bears O-line, but I may have picked up Johnson who was a late pick. I actually had LenDale on my radar and tehn he was scooped up before it got back to me. The weakness at RB was an obvious flaw with my team and I knew that going in. However, what actually killed my team was the inconsistency at WR. Wayne was very consistent, but Colston was a disappointment. Like I said above, Saint receivers are really only valuable in PPR leagues. Outside of that they tend to be overvalued because Drew Brees is such a great QB.

With Brady I do think I would have made the playoffs though. His injury was the reason I lost in week 1. I doubt I would have been above 6th place though.

TE was another issue with me. Gates is still the most talented TE in the league IMO, however Norv Turner is a terrible coach and I have little faith in Rivers as a viable fantasy option, although I love the guy. Norv does not get the ball to his playmakers and Gates slowed down the stretch.

I should have been a bit wiser at receiver. I had absolutely no idea Matt Ryan would be this good, this quick. If so Roddy White would have been an easy pick. Wayne was a good pick, Colston was not...In a league like this when receivers are the core of your team you need consistent players that usually have good weeks.

It was fun though. Very competitive league and I was happy to remain competitive after some injuries. Definitely a good learning experience.
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Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby deerayfan072 » Tue Dec 02, 2008 6:54 pm

IMO, having Warner this season was probably the same and than a healthy Brady. There was no way he would have put up the same stats as last season and Warner's stats are pretty damn good for a QB.

I thought this was interesting in this league and confirms what I was trying to say before the season:

The top 10 QB's for standard format by numbers right now: (next to the average round selected in a 12 team standard scoring league)

Brees -- 3.07
Warner -- Not drafted
Rodgers -- 10.10
Cutler -- 7.06
Rivers -- 9.10
McNabb -- 5.10
P. Manning -- 2.04
E. Manning -- 8.10
Romo -- 2.12
Cassel -- Not drafted

Top 10 Backs

Thomas Jones -- 4.03
Michael Turner -- 3.07
Matt Forte -- 6.11
Adrian Peterson -- 1.02
DeAngelo Williams -- 6.07
Clinton Portis -- 1.09
Marion Barber -- 1.07
Steve Slaton -- 13.10
Brandon Jacobs -- 3.12
Frank Gore -- 1.08


4 of the top guys drafted are in the top 10 RB scoring. Meanwhile 2 guys undrafted at QB are in the top 10. Running back is a bit more consistent.

Side note -- my team blew in that league and I never want to draft 12 again in a non-ppr league like that :-P
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Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby venus » Tue Dec 02, 2008 9:23 pm

Nice thread. I always do this kind of evaluation after my seasons, and actually chart each draft and grade at the end of the season on how I drafted.
Of my two leagues, my 10 teamer, qb heavy(6 pts a td toss) I decided to wait on a qb and used my first 5 picks to get my starters for rb & wr . With that strategy I started with Portis & Jacobs at rb, RMoss, Marshall, & Harrison to anchor this team. My sixth round pick I grabbed Big Ben hoping for a repeat of last year *groan*, the rest of my picks were highlighted by Deangelo, Berrian, & Titans D.
As we found out Big Ben underperformed and that left me as a 4-9 pretender(I have to finger point bad luck too as one of the two division winners had the same number points as me and my points against were 50 more than the next closest team.) Lesson? Draft a top qb early.
My other league, a 12 teamer, I can already grade myself an A. A team with Cutler, Gore, Addai, Ronnie B, CJ 4.24, Steve Smith, CJ2, Vince Jackson, Gonzo, Carney, Packers, Carolina D. My only misdrafts were, Gaffney & Crayton, who I replaced with ABryant & Curtis. However, lady luck decided to %#!@ with me and I started 1-4 (I had the most points in the league but was still 1-4) and due to not knowing who my rb studs were, Steve Smith being out two weeks. Eventually, lady luck backed off and I finished 8-5 with 89 points more than the next closest team. Here we come playoffs. Lessons? 1. Being stacked at certain positions actually makes lineup setting difficult, but I can live with that one. 2. If you are stacked at a position, don't expect a quality trade from others. Traders don't like to give quality to other teams bench players, even if they are high quality players. 3. Lady luck can't %^%^$ with you all season........ can she?
Anyway, it's been fun and frustrating, but it makes Thursdays, Sundays, & Mondays better than they would be without FF.

Good luck all in the playoffs, it's been another good season on the Cafe.
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Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby Guru13 » Tue Dec 02, 2008 9:32 pm

Polar Bear wrote:Thanks for the glass half full comments LS2, but my record was deceiving. Outside of a couple big weeks, my team wasn't all that competitive. Especially my last win when I won with a whopping 70 points I believe. Hehe...70 point win. 90% of the league would have beat me that week.

Rookie RBs are a crapshoot and I really didn't know much about CJ and Forte until after the draft. I doubt I would have drafted Forte because I had been burned by Benson and had little faith in the Bears O-line, but I may have picked up Johnson who was a late pick. I actually had LenDale on my radar and tehn he was scooped up before it got back to me. The weakness at RB was an obvious flaw with my team and I knew that going in. However, what actually killed my team was the inconsistency at WR. Wayne was very consistent, but Colston was a disappointment. Like I said above, Saint receivers are really only valuable in PPR leagues. Outside of that they tend to be overvalued because Drew Brees is such a great QB.

With Brady I do think I would have made the playoffs though. His injury was the reason I lost in week 1. I doubt I would have been above 6th place though.

TE was another issue with me. Gates is still the most talented TE in the league IMO, however Norv Turner is a terrible coach and I have little faith in Rivers as a viable fantasy option, although I love the guy. Norv does not get the ball to his playmakers and Gates slowed down the stretch.

I should have been a bit wiser at receiver. I had absolutely no idea Matt Ryan would be this good, this quick. If so Roddy White would have been an easy pick. Wayne was a good pick, Colston was not...In a league like this when receivers are the core of your team you need consistent players that usually have good weeks.

It was fun though. Very competitive league and I was happy to remain competitive after some injuries. Definitely a good learning experience.

you don't see Rivers as a viable fantasy option? Even with him being third in the league in passing TDs? (only one behind Warner and Brees)
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