Guess it's time for my medicine - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Guess it's time for my medicine

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby Kilroy » Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:26 am

My team was also a suckfest in that league (6-7, out of playoffs). When you draft a QB in the 2nd (Manning, which I regretted about 4 seconds after I did it), your RBs are S-Jax (hurt), Bush (hurt), and FWP (noticing a pattern?), and your WRs are a collection of "who?" guys you're turning over like crazy in an effort to cobble together something your chances of making any hay are, um, not good. !+)
Image

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." -- Voltaire
Kilroy
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 13587
Joined: 6 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Making My List and Checking It Twice...

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby dream_017 » Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:42 am

deerayfan072 wrote:The top 10 QB's for standard format by numbers right now: (next to the average round selected in a 12 team standard scoring league)

Brees -- 3.07
Warner -- Not drafted
Rodgers -- 10.10
Cutler -- 7.06
Rivers -- 9.10
McNabb -- 5.10
P. Manning -- 2.04
E. Manning -- 8.10
Romo -- 2.12
Cassel -- Not drafted

Top 10 Backs

Thomas Jones -- 4.03
Michael Turner -- 3.07
Matt Forte -- 6.11
Adrian Peterson -- 1.02
DeAngelo Williams -- 6.07
Clinton Portis -- 1.09
Marion Barber -- 1.07
Steve Slaton -- 13.10
Brandon Jacobs -- 3.12
Frank Gore -- 1.08


See, I like this. 4 of the top 5 QBs were selected in round 7 or later. Only 3 of the top 10 RBs were selected past the 4th round. If this doesn't convince people to draft RBs and wait on QBs, I don't know what will
dream_017
Cafe Google
Cafe Google

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 15306
(Past Year: 60)
Joined: 3 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Ford Field: Section - 132; Row - 19; Seat - 11

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby Polar Bear » Wed Dec 03, 2008 11:05 am

It is not as though my team was horrible guys. I tied for 6th place, just didn't have the points. The reason I didn't make the playoffs is because of the Brady injury. Go back and look at my first matchup. I lost by 13 points and Brady would have given me at least 16 points that week if he had reproduced the exact same number Cassel did after his injury. If I had lost Brady in the 4th quarter of that game instead of the 1st we would not even be having this discussion because I would have been 7-6 and in the playoffs. Warner had a very good season, but some want to downplay the Brady injury and act as though the Warner pickup was equal to what Brady would have done. That is assuming way too much. I was 6-6 with Warner on my roster. I played most of the year with a patched WR core and subpar RB and still ended up almost making the playoffs and would have if Brady had not been hurt in the 1st quarter. According to many in the draft I wasn't even going to be competitive, yet I tied for 6th and was in it all the way up until the end. With the amount of injuries I had to key players: Brady, Colston, McFadden, and Hasselbeck I am shocked that I was in it as long as I was.

I like overall stats, but they can be skewed because of injuries, huge weeks and hot streaks, but I don't see how those stats negate what I said at the beginning. 4 of the top 10 backs were drafted in the first round. I was the only person in this league to take a non-RB in the 1st round, which means over 50% of the league missed in the first round. 6 of the 10 were after the 2nd round. The main flaw in my draft was not that I picked Brady in the first round, but that I waited too long to pick a RB. I didn't pick a RB until the 5th round when I should have picked one in the 3rd round. The two I had my eye on were Michael Turner or Brandon Jacobs. If I had picked one of those guys instead of Colston, I would have probably finished 8-5. No reason to dwell on that either.

As far as the QBs go. That is also a skewed ranking. P Manning, Romo, Brees, McNabb, Cutler, Eli and Rivers were all, arguably, preseason top 10 QBs and they all had decent seasons. Romo's injury is the only reason he is not in the top 2. Also if Warner had been the actual starter when we had that draft he would have been drafted in the top 10 also. Most of the top 10 QBs hit, with a few exceptions, while most of the top 10 RBs didn't.

Anyways I am not arguing that my draft strategy was right, because it wasn't. I need to be clear on that. I waited way too long to draft a RB when I should have just went after a few of my later targets. Thomas Jones and Brandon Jacobs were two guys I had targeted and 2 guys I could have gotten. Next year I will still wait to draft a RB, but instead of the 5th I will probably draft one in the 2nd or 3rd round. In a cafe league no later than the 2nd, unless it is a PPR league.

What I was going to do was draft all rookie RBs from round 5 on. For some reason I backed off of that.
Polar Bear
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar

Posts: 301
Joined: 12 Jun 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby dream_017 » Wed Dec 03, 2008 11:25 am

Polar Bear wrote:As far as the QBs go. That is also a skewed ranking. P Manning, Romo, Brees, McNabb, Cutler, Eli and Rivers were all, arguably, preseason top 10 QBs and they all had decent seasons. Romo's injury is the only reason he is not in the top 2. Also if Warner had been the actual starter when we had that draft he would have been drafted in the top 10 also. Most of the top 10 QBs hit, with a few exceptions, while most of the top 10 RBs didn't.


OK, I don't really want to get into this, because I know how these threads go, but I do have a problem with the above. You say that most of the top 10 QBs hit....but where were they drafted? You could get most of them in the later rounds. You also say most of the top 10 RBs missed, all the more reason to draft more of them early. RBs are harder to find and hit on so they are the most valuable, while QBs are dime a dozen....you lost your 1st round QB....and replaced him with a WW QB.....who finished as the #2 QB 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o Could you do that with a RB :-?
dream_017
Cafe Google
Cafe Google

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 15306
(Past Year: 60)
Joined: 3 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Ford Field: Section - 132; Row - 19; Seat - 11

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby Kilroy » Wed Dec 03, 2008 12:59 pm

Of my 16 leagues this one is one of 2 where I've been eliminated from playoff contention (I'm in in 11, with 3 yet to be determined), and in both those leagues I took a QB early. Meanwhile, the teams where I waited and loaded up on backs just keep on keeping on.

May be a coincidence, but even if it is I sure don't see myself doing it again any time soon.
Image

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." -- Voltaire
Kilroy
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 13587
Joined: 6 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Making My List and Checking It Twice...

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby Dan Lambskin » Wed Dec 03, 2008 1:47 pm

i'm in 5 leagues...one is a PPR Dynasty i inherited and coming into the season my QB's were Campbell and Hasselbeck and i ended up being the #3 seed (picking up Thigpen late has helped). team is carried by Portis, Boldin and Roddy White

12 Team 3-keeper...kept Brady, later traded for Warner. lucked into the playoffs as the 5th and final seed (we have 3 divisions winners + 2 wildcards who face off week 14)

10 team 3-keeper...took Carson Palmer early :-P but was able to get Warner off waivers. Team struggled (LT and S-jax were keepers :,-( ) and ended up 7-6 but missed playoffs on a tie-breaker

10 team redraft - went RB and WR heavy, drafted McNabb, Hass and Schaub late...picked up Warner off waivers. 11-2

32 team league - got Warner really late ;-D #2 seed in AFC

so, yeah, waiting can be good, especially if you can pick up Kurt Warner ;-D
Dan Lambskin
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 7054
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: being a fan of the worst franchise in the NFL

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Dec 03, 2008 4:18 pm

I only took a QB early in one league this year and I made the playoffs there.

But then again this was a keeper league and my 1.01 pick was the equivalent of about the 3.06 pick or so, and it has a lot of IDP positions, and I kept Clinton Portis. In short without a lot of qualifiers I don't really see how drafting a QB early is a consistent winning option unless you hit on a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning type blockbuster season. Too much hit and miss and not enough upside when you consider the cumulative effect is has on your RB/WR and even TE positions. You are always one round behind everyone else until the eventual QB run in the middle rounds when all the solid RB/WR options have pretty much dried up.

PS - the QB I took early was Romo (I managed to also grab Brett Favre about 10 rounds later)
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby LS2throwed » Wed Dec 03, 2008 6:23 pm

Well you could say I took a QB too early, I grabbed Romo at 2.2 I believe and I'm 3rd in the league in pts even with his injury and in the playoffs, so it can be done...But I was able to get my workhorse Rb in Barber earlier and had depth with Stewart, Graham, and Deangelo(who was huge for my draft)...For the record this was the earliest I took a QB in any draft and it didn't hinder me too much.
Image
Current Cafe Dynasties:
4th and Goal
Fourth & Inches
Double D
Any Given Dynasty
Eat Cheese Dynasty
NFL's Finest
Cafe Very Special Forces
LS2throwed
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 5373
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Arlington, Texas

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby deerayfan072 » Wed Dec 03, 2008 6:28 pm

LS2throwed wrote:Well you could say I took a QB too early, I grabbed Romo at 2.2 I believe and I'm 3rd in the league in pts even with his injury and in the playoffs, so it can be done...But I was able to get my workhorse Rb in Barber earlier and had depth with Stewart, Graham, and Deangelo(who was huge for my draft)...For the record this was the earliest I took a QB in any draft and it didn't hinder me too much.



right, so of the 3 guys who took a QB in the first 2 rounds one made the playoffs
Image
deerayfan072
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 18976
Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: On an Island

Re: Guess it's time for my medicine

Postby FFslacker » Wed Dec 03, 2008 7:30 pm

I took Brady in the 1st round. Although my back-up plan of Warner in the 12th worked out pretty well for me. I didn't draft my first rb until round 4 and I am in the playoffs with a 9-4 record. 1 point behind the scoring leader.
Image
FFslacker
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Mock(ing) DrafterMatchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 998
Joined: 9 Dec 2007
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Kentucky

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 11:55 hours
(and 37 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact