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How long before the Titans start to rest Chris Johnson?

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Re: How long before the Titans start to rest Chris Johnson?

Postby TGM » Thu Dec 04, 2008 10:05 am

sirchadwick1 wrote:The quote is from Nov 10th. It's not that old. Jeff was stating then that he'll be playing his guys - I assumed he meant his best, including CJ. for all games.


With all due respect sir, that was almost a month ago. That's an eternity in the ever changing world of the NFL (not to mention fantasy football). Hell, things can change on a dime in a day! The mere fact that they were unbeaten at that time might have had a bearing on the way Fisher was thinking (i.e., that he would've played all his guys to remain unbeaten if the opportunity was still there).

Kensat30 wrote:Hopefully you have a better option lined up for week 16 anyways, that's all I got to say.


That was my point entirely.

Looking at the two upcoming games for both Tennessee (vs. Cleveland and at Houston) and Pittsburgh (vs. Dallas and at Baltimore), and it's not hard to see a scenario in which Tennessee wins both, while Pitt could lose one, or both games. If that happens, you better believe CJ gets rested to some extent.

Bottom line...why would Fisher take a chance on letting arguably his best offensive player get hurt if the games don't matter?
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Re: How long before the Titans start to rest Chris Johnson?

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Dec 04, 2008 5:49 pm

My point was that you wouldn't want to start Chris Johnson against Pittsburgh even if it was a must win situation for Tennessee(for which there is no guarantee). Starting RBs have to be averaging like 50 yards a game against Pittsburgh. Most teams don't run in TDs versus Pittsburgh as well. And even if Tennessee were able to score chances are it would goto Lendale. I think Johnson is not scoring unless he gets a rare long run for a TD or he catches a pass and takes it in. I would shocked and awed if Johnson was able to score 2 Tds against Pittsburgh by any means. Has a RB scored 2 times against Pittsburgh this year? What is the highest rushing yards allowed to a single RB this year? Nothing is favorable in that matchup for a RB, especially not one losing redzone touches at a high rate like Johnson is.

BEST case scenario for Johnson if he plays the entire game in his standard role looks something like:
18/90/0, 5/40/1

More likely he would end up:
14/55/0, 2/10/0

Tennessee locks up #1 seed:
8/30/0, 1/5/0

Any way you look at, I think Chris Johnson has a high probabilty of less than 10 points with an upside that is likely below 20 points. Expected value has to be around 6 or 7 points right now. If they don't lock up #1 seed by week 16, that jumps to maybe 8 points. To me that is a weak RB2 value and not someone I would want to start in the most important week of the year. Chris Johnson week 16 is a tough call even against a real borderline guy like Ricky Williams@KC for me. the matchup is so bad that a guy who is splitting 40% of the playing time but has a much better matchup might be the better option.
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Re: How long before the Titans start to rest Chris Johnson?

Postby spodog » Fri Dec 05, 2008 2:54 pm

Kensat30 wrote:My point was that you wouldn't want to start Chris Johnson against Pittsburgh even if it was a must win situation for Tennessee(for which there is no guarantee). Starting RBs have to be averaging like 50 yards a game against Pittsburgh. Most teams don't run in TDs versus Pittsburgh as well. And even if Tennessee were able to score chances are it would goto Lendale. I think Johnson is not scoring unless he gets a rare long run for a TD or he catches a pass and takes it in. I would shocked and awed if Johnson was able to score 2 Tds against Pittsburgh by any means. Has a RB scored 2 times against Pittsburgh this year? What is the highest rushing yards allowed to a single RB this year? Nothing is favorable in that matchup for a RB, especially not one losing redzone touches at a high rate like Johnson is.

BEST case scenario for Johnson if he plays the entire game in his standard role looks something like:
18/90/0, 5/40/1

More likely he would end up:
14/55/0, 2/10/0

Tennessee locks up #1 seed:
8/30/0, 1/5/0

Any way you look at, I think Chris Johnson has a high probabilty of less than 10 points with an upside that is likely below 20 points. Expected value has to be around 6 or 7 points right now. If they don't lock up #1 seed by week 16, that jumps to maybe 8 points. To me that is a weak RB2 value and not someone I would want to start in the most important week of the year. Chris Johnson week 16 is a tough call even against a real borderline guy like Ricky Williams@KC for me. the matchup is so bad that a guy who is splitting 40% of the playing time but has a much better matchup might be the better option.


This is an excellent analysis. Totally agree ;-D
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Re: How long before the Titans start to rest Chris Johnson?

Postby dmacblue » Sat Dec 06, 2008 12:41 am

superb stuff kensat.Can i retain you for my next discussion with my Mrs over her credit card shopping sprees at the Mall in the current climate ;-D
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Re: How long before the Titans start to rest Chris Johnson?

Postby Kensat30 » Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:30 am

dmacblue wrote:superb stuff kensat.Can i retain you for my next discussion with my Mrs over her credit card shopping sprees at the Mall in the current climate ;-D


Make a monthly budget and limit both of your personal expenses to a limit you are comfortable with. If she can't stay to the limit, you keep all the credit cards and dole her out an allowance.
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Re: How long before the Titans start to rest Chris Johnson?

Postby PMax » Sat Dec 06, 2008 7:22 am

As long as the Tits go with a steady force-feeding of Chris Johnson this week, I'll be good.

Tenneessee's schedule isnt that great coming up, if I remember correctly.
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Re: How long before the Titans start to rest Chris Johnson?

Postby FFslacker » Sun Dec 07, 2008 5:11 am

His schedule is pretty soft with the exception of pitt in week 16.
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