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AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

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AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

Postby ampant » Wed Dec 03, 2008 5:22 pm

Steve Heiden.

You may think I am being crazy here, especially because they will be on the road vs TEN, but consider the following. . .

Kellen Winslow is likely out this week with a high ankle sprain. Both Quinn and Anderson are out. Gradkowski is in, and was just signed, so he hasn't had much time to learn the offense. Crappy backup QBs often lean on dump-off passes to TEs and RBs. And Heiden is actually a pretty good receiving TE. He has had a number of big games in the past when Winslow was out.

Tennessee has actually given up more scores to opposing TEs this year than they have WRs (they are ranked 13th worst defense vs fantasy TEs) and the the Browns WRs have been consistently bad. Heiden is going to get a lot of looks because they are going to have to throw to somebody, and I predict a minimum of 5 receptions for him with 40-75 yards, with a 20%-30% chance at a TD.

Obviously if you have a stud TE, start him. But if you aren't feeling good about your TE options this week, consider rolling the dice on Heiden. You don't get penalized for sacks or INTs, ;-D and I am really feeling it on this one.

Last week I called Scheffler as a good value start, and I was dead on. We'll see if I can make it 2 in a row here. In one of my leagues I am actually going to start Heiden over Scheffler (I am going with Cooley in the other).

That's my take on things this week. Take it for what it's worth (about $0.02). ;-)
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Re: AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

Postby tbagz » Wed Dec 03, 2008 5:29 pm

I like it, he did well when Winslow was out and I personally think he blocks better.
i still hate the steelers...
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Re: AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

Postby Sgt. Apone » Wed Dec 03, 2008 5:43 pm

Titans give up about 8 FP in PPR leagues per game to TEs in their last 5, but the Chiefs have been allowing 14+ FPs per game to TEs in their last 5, I can see your angle with a lot of dump off passes possible but the matchups favor going against the Chiefs

Denver is a much better offensive team, and I'd personally much rather start Scheffler if I had a choice
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Re: AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

Postby ampant » Wed Dec 03, 2008 7:09 pm

Sgt. Apone wrote:Titans give up about 8 FP in PPR leagues per game to TEs in their last 5, but the Chiefs have been allowing 14+ FPs per game to TEs in their last 5, I can see your angle with a lot of dump off passes possible but the matchups favor going against the Chiefs

Denver is a much better offensive team, and I'd personally much rather start Scheffler if I had a choice


Thanks for the input . . . but where did you get those stats? Cause I got mine here . . . http://fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.p ... de=Allowed

KC is ranked 10 spots tougher vs Fantasy TEs than TEN is. TEN has allowed more yards and TDs. And it's not just about matchups . . . it's about the situational facts. I consider Scheffler a low end TE1 play this week as well, but I just get the feeling the Heiden is going to lead the Browns in receptions this week. Part of this is a gut call, based upon how I think the Browns offense will try to move the ball against TEN. Look at how the Browns usually play . . . Last week the Browns had 16 total receptions. 7 of those were to TEs, 5 went to RBs, and 5 went to WRs.

Of the 7 to TEs, Winslow got 3, and Heiden got 3. Assuming Heiden gets most of Winslows balls now that KWII is out, lets say he gets 5. Now consider that a new backup QB is going to throw more passes in the meddle and underneath, so give Heiden one more. Now consider that QB is going to want to stay away from TENs dangerous corners, who have only allowed 2 passing TDs to WRs all year, and that TEN is tied for the 3rd most INTS this year. So give Heiden one more. That's 7 receptions estimating conservatively. The Browns will likely be playing from behind, which means they are going to be passing even more. And once TEN is up by a few scores Heiden could very well get a garbage-time big play.

In other words, CLE has the second fewest receptions by WRs this year (73), and the 6th most receptions by TEs (66). When you have a starting TE on a team with that sort of ball distribution to TEs going up against a defense like TEN, which is the 13th worst vs TEs and the 2nd best vs WRs, chances are that TE is going to get a lot of looks and is likely to have a productive game.
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Re: AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

Postby deluxe_247 » Wed Dec 03, 2008 8:04 pm

heiden is one the better backup receiving TEs in the league IMO. the only thing that worries me is something you say is an advantage....the QB situation. i dont trust gradkowski in the first place...much less on a new team against a titans defense that has potential to break his guys legs on every play :-b . your stat predictions are realistic though...i like it. ;-D
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Re: AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

Postby ampant » Wed Dec 03, 2008 8:36 pm

Yeah. I understand not liking the QB situation. But that's the nice thing about TEs . . . they tend to get more looks by backup QBs because the backups generally suck, don't know the offense, and can't read multiple receivers before getting sacked. TE's are about the only position that tend to perform better with crappy QBs. RBs get the line stacked on them, and WRs don't see the ball at all. If they are going to run a deep route, they may very well run Heiden on a few go patterns, because he is a good receiver, and he probably has a better chance of beating a linebacker in coverage than one of the WRs will have of getting open for any length of time.

I think Heiden and Jamal will get a lot of 2nd read check-downs and quick pressure release dumpoffs. I also want to re-iterate that this is not a recommendation to start Heiden ofer top TEs. This is just for dudes who find themselves in a crappy TE situation and need a good 1-week play.

Anyways, I'm rolling the dice on him.
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Re: AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

Postby Sgt. Apone » Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:17 am

I think Heiden and Jamal will get a lot of 2nd read check-downs and quick pressure release dumpoffs. I also want to re-iterate that this is not a recommendation to start Heiden ofer top TEs. This is just for dudes who find themselves in a crappy TE situation and need a good 1-week play.



just trying to save you from the great overthink, I sure wouldn't classify Scheff as a crappy TE in a bad situation, While Heiden is a decent TE in a crappy situation, benching a guy off a 90 yard game who plays for a top QB facing a good matchup for an unknown commodity in Gradowski/Heiden vs a very tough D is a classic overthink - good luck this week but IMO Scheff has a better baseline and has as much or more upside

my stats are Teams vs TE on fftoday.com selected to last five games (1 PPR)

EDIT: RE: TE stats quoted above- I just noticed I had it on my leagues custom settings, using your link to fftoday standard settings it shows:

Last 5 games

Chiefs allow 8.1 FP per game to TE
Titans allow 4.5 FP
Last edited by Sgt. Apone on Thu Dec 04, 2008 3:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

Postby LS2throwed » Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:43 am

Sgt. Apone wrote:
I think Heiden and Jamal will get a lot of 2nd read check-downs and quick pressure release dumpoffs. I also want to re-iterate that this is not a recommendation to start Heiden ofer top TEs. This is just for dudes who find themselves in a crappy TE situation and need a good 1-week play.



just trying to save you from the great overthink, I sure wouldn't classify Scheff as a crappy TE in a bad situation, While Heiden is a decent TE in a crappy situation, benching a guy off a 90 yard game who plays for a top QB facing a good matchup for an unknown commodity in Gradowski/Heiden vs a very tough D is a classic overthink - good luck this week but IMO Scheff has a better baseline and has as much or more upside

my stats are Teams vs TE on fftoday.com selected to last five games (PPR)



That's basically what I was going to say, Scheffler is almost stud status at TE he is just inconsistent, but Cutler targets him quite often and he has the potential for 100 yards and a score any game he plays, I don't know if you can find a WW TE to out due that...I like Heiden, but in the playoffs im not plugging him in over Scheffler who has way too much potential with a much better QB.
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Re: AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

Postby Sgt. Apone » Thu Dec 04, 2008 4:02 am

LOL at your avatar LS, classic.
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Re: AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . . Steve Heiden

Postby ampant » Thu Dec 04, 2008 4:22 am

Hmmm . . . you guys make good points. I am going to have to chew on this a little.

I was throwing out the numbers to illustrate a reasonable assertion that Heiden would constitute a bigger percentage of the Browns offense (since they throw to TEs so often, and because the WRs would be locked down) than Scheffler would of Denver's offense. Scheff has to compete for touches with Marshall, Hillis, Royal, Stokely and Graham. Heiden hasa a 50% chance of leading the Browns in receptions, and really has to compete with Edwards for catches, and maybe Jamal Lewis. Stallworth is a joke.

The real question is, would I rather get 50% of the Browns' passing offense, or 15% of the Broncos? I'll do some research and let you know how I end up rolling. I still might stick with Heiden, and I'd probably be willing to bet he gets at least 5 receptions (just don't know if those will be 5 receptions for 25 total yards) :-D

Still, I bet he goes for a minimum of 50 yards. In the 2 previous games Winslow missed, Heiden had a total of 134 yards. He had a huge catch in their surprise upset over the Giants. I don't know if it's overthinking though as much as it is my gut telling me what to do.

To be continued. . .
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