AMPANT'S Random TE Start of the Week . . .

[Sgt. Apone]

totally agree on Heiden having potential this week, esp in PPR, just not sold on starting him over Scheff, your 15% /50% argument makes sense, but also assumes 50% of the Browns is better than 15% of the Broncos

[benb18a]

How about Zach Miller, against the league's worst Pass D, and with the WRs on his team nicked up?

[ampant]

How about Zach Miller, against the league's worst Pass D, and with the WRs on his team nicked up?

He's already owned in both leagues.

[ampant]

I was doing some research looking for reports from local sports writers and see what the take is on Heiden. I found the following snippets . . .

KFFL

Ken Dorsey is lined up to call the shots for the Cleveland Browns. We should see a heavy dose of the run and lots of intermediate passing routes - many of the latter going to tight end Steven Heiden.

and this from KFFL

With the Cleveland Browns' oft-injured tight end Kellen Winslow (knee) out this week with a high ankle sprain, Steve Heiden looks set to step into Winslow's starting role again. Heiden started earlier this year for Winslow and put up lines of 5-59-0 in Week 6 and 3-73-0 in Week 8. In those two weeks, he was targeted seven and six times, respectively. He received six looks last week - all from injured quarterback Derek Anderson (knee). However, Ken Dorsey, who should be starting in Week 14, only attempted three passes as he came on with just one minute and seven seconds left in the game. Heiden could become a favorite of Dorsey, whose playbook might be scaled back, meaning he could go to Heiden often as a checkdown receiver.

Canton Repository

Tight ends Steve Heiden and Darnell Dinkins were a key to beating the Giants in a Monday night surprise. On Sunday at Tennessee, it would make sense for new quarterback Ken Dorsey to use short passes to Heiden and Rucker.

http://www.cantonrep.com/sports/browns/ ... xperiments

Bleacher Report - TEs to Start

Also Tight ends are good security blankets. I expect new Browns’ QB Ken Dorsey to target Steven Heiden often.

I am back and forth on this one. . . . if it were my ppr league I would go Heiden for sure.

[Kensat30]

If you hit on this one you should start charging a subscription fee.

Anyone with balls enough to start Heiden, kudos.

[Sgt. Apone]

Well, I'm not sure what to tell you, we all gave you the advice to start a known high scoring commodity
in Tony Scheffler over Heiden this week,

Better matchup
Better QB

I'm sure after the games our point will become clearer, but a bunch of guys saying 'he could throw to Heiden a lot' does not turn the guy into a stud TE when the Browns offense itself is a huge question mark due to the QB position, everything you've presented as an argument for Heiden is based on your projections that the Browns will have success passing on short routes which is anything but a given with a QB off the practice squad versus the best defense in the NFL

[ampant]

Lol - Thanks guys. I know you are trying to save me from myself here. I appreciate it, and normally I would give the exact same advice. I have been rescued from insanity many times by fellow cafe'ers. I still might suffer nutshrivel and slide Scheff in, but my gut is screaming at me like it hasn't in a while. Last time I felt like this I was telling people to start Mike Anderson over LT back in 2005 . . . LT had a 2 td game, but so did Mike Anderson.

Apone, I went back and looked at the stats for the last five weeks. Just for kicks I wondered if they had been playing tougher vs TEs, or if they were just playing crappier TEs.

Their last 5 games have been vs. DET, NYJ, JAC, CHI, and GB.

Below are the stats of those teams' starting TEs, next to their [bracketed per-game averages]

GB - Donald Lee, 3rec/22yds 0TDs [20.5ypg - 4tds on the year]
CHI - Greg Olsen 5rec/40yds 0tds [30.6ypg - 2tds]
JAC - Marcedes Lewis 1rec/19yds [29.5ypg - 2tds]
NYJ - Dustin Keller - 6rec/42yds [38.3ypg - 3tds]
DET - John Owens? - 1 rec/10yds [1.5ypg - 0tds]

So with the exception of Lewis, every starting TE TEN played in the last 5 weeks performed over their yearly average. So it's not like they were tougher the last 5 weeks, they just played teams that didn't throw as much to TEs.

I don't know. CLE throws to TEs a lot. Maybe Scheff outperforms Heiden, but I bet you Heiden has a solid game. I can't beleive how much time I have spent researching this guy . . . sheesh.

I'll let you know who I end up starting. And thanks again for jumping in and trying to save me from myself. It's appreciated, even if I do end up starting Heiden.

[joejlitz]

Well,

Scheffler went and made it interesting notching 5 cathes for 61 yards. I guess we'll see how it all plays out tomorrow night. Good 4 u for going with ur gut, though Ampant.

[mattUTD20]

Heiden went 4/29 earlier today. He was a sneaky play but the Browns were the Browns today unfortunately.

[ampant]

Meh. . .

Scheff outperformed him. Honestly, I am not that surprised. I did a little more research on teams, and while the browns are 6th in the league in TE scoring . . . . the Broncos were 3rd. Once I saw this, and I went back and re-read Apone and Kensat's posts. I actually slid Scheffler back in right before game time. Once Hillis went down , you knew they were going to be throwing it more (I had Hillis too).

Even though there wasn't a big point differential, that move might have saved my season. Right now I am behind by a around 4.5 points, and I have Steve Smith going tomorrow night, my opponent is done. Those extra 3.2 points might come in handy. (Steve Smith has only had one game this year where he has scored fewer than 5 fantasy points. He's had a couple more where he has scored less than 8.)

I bit of an overthink . . . thanks for the sanity check. This wasn't the first time a fellow cafe'er has managed to help me avoid self-inflicted damage. It wasn't a terrible idea, except like (I think) Apone said, Scheffler wasn't a crappy TE in a bad situation.