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The State of Recruiting (SI.com)

Postby HskrPwr13 » Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:19 pm

I thought this was kind of interesting. Points out the inherent recruiting advantages that some school's have and what recruits deem as most important in selecting a school.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/w ... ml?eref=T1

One day in late December, dry-erase boards stood staggered a few yards apart on the track surrounding the field at the University of North Florida. A Nebraska assistant coach was posted in front of each board, and around each coach huddled a clutch of Jacksonville-area high school coaches. The Cornhuskers had come to the Sunshine State to face Clemson in the Gator Bowl, but first-year coach Bo Pelini and his staff figured that while they were there, they should lay the foundation for a recruiting pipeline into the state that, from 2004-08, produced more BCS-conference football players (981) than any other.

The Nebraska coaches have little choice but to hit the road. Their state produced only 43 BCS-conference players in the past five years, and the annual output isn't likely to grow. If they don't get their players from Florida, then they must go to California, Texas, New Jersey or some other state rich in high school football talent. To land those players, Pelini will have to work harder now than former coach Tom Osborne did when the Cornhuskers dominated the sport for the better part of two decades. Back then, a winning program was enough to lure recruits, in part because only powerhouses such as Nebraska, Michigan and Notre Dame appeared on television regularly. Now, every BCS conference team plays most of its games on television, and 15 years of the 85-scholarship limit has slammed shut the gap between football's ruling class and the former pigskin proletariat.

In the process, the three most important factors in college football recruiting have become location, location and location. Now, the best players are more likely to stay close to home. That, combined with the U.S. population's shift to the south, it has fundamentally changed the sport. Notre Dame and Nebraska have given way to programs such as LSU, the only BCS-conference team in a talent-rich state that borders equally talent-rich Texas and Mississippi.

An SI study of 2004-08 recruiting data for the 65 BCS-conference schools and Notre Dame revealed that programs which draw at least 50 percent of their players from within 200 miles or from within their home state stand a far better chance of winning consistently than those that did not. Of the nine schools that won 50 or more games from 2004-08, seven signed more than half their recruits during that span from within their state or from within 200 miles of campus: Texas (93.2% from in-state, 71.8 percent from within 200 miles), USC (72.0, 61.0), Georgia (63.6, 70.1), Florida (62.3, 47.9), Ohio State (55.8, 66.3), Virginia Tech (54.3, 44.0) and LSU (50.4, 56.5). Oklahoma barely missed the cut, with 49.1 percent from within 200 miles.

Of the 22 schools that won 40 or more games during that span, 16 attracted more than half their players from within 200 miles or from within their state. Of the 44 schools that won fewer than 40 games, only 13 met the homegrown recruiting criteria.

Those data complement the findings of a trio of economists who.............
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Re: The State of Recruiting (SI.com)

Postby deerayfan072 » Wed Jan 21, 2009 5:22 pm

Interesting article ;-D


They left out what I think has become THE most important thing to students now and that is early playing time. Florida has lost 3 commits already because of how deep the depth chart is and how much everyone talks about the Gators having young talent. Andre Dubose (WR) was supposed to decommit if Percy came back because he wanted to play the "Percy Position" for Florida and wants to be 3 and done to go to the NFL. Most of these guys want to get to the pros soon and want to start right now. Location helps, but you also have to feed into there egos
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Re: The State of Recruiting (SI.com)

Postby knapplc » Wed Jan 21, 2009 5:37 pm

Is this a trend or a sign of things to come, that's the question. Will the pendulum swing back or have we seen a fundamental shift in the structure of football?

Nebraska and Notre Dame are two highly visible examples of declines from the heights of college football to the depths of mediocrity, but the question has to be, was that because of a shift in the wants/desires of recruits, or some other factor? Nebraska's decline can be closely linked to the retirement of Tom Osborne and the relative weakness of Frank Solich and Bill Callahan as coaches. Notre Dame's can be linked to the retirement of Lou Holtz and the string of lesser-quality coaches (in comparison) that they've had since.

There is a chicken-or-the-egg component to this conversation. I don't think it's as simple as saying, "It's warmer there." Kids will play football for good coaches/programs/teams in cold states, and play it well.

A decade ago Oklahoma was atrocious. Now they're making regular trips to BCS bowls. Two decades ago LSU was a whipping boy. Now they're only one year removed from another title. USC was a storied, great program that had fallen to mediocrity before Pete Carroll came by. To me it's all cyclical. We're seeing a shift because of the 85 schollie limit, sure, but that's not to say that even that change is permanent. Oklahoma, USC, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Alabama, etc., these are all big-time programs with big-time boosters and huge fan bases. They're not going to be down for long, and they'll find a way to adapt and thrive even in the current climate of college football.
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Re: The State of Recruiting (SI.com)

Postby HskrPwr13 » Wed Jan 21, 2009 7:12 pm

deerayfan072 wrote:Interesting article ;-D


They left out what I think has become THE most important thing to students now and that is early playing time. Florida has lost 3 commits already because of how deep the depth chart is and how much everyone talks about the Gators having young talent. Andre Dubose (WR) was supposed to decommit if Percy came back because he wanted to play the "Percy Position" for Florida and wants to be 3 and done to go to the NFL. Most of these guys want to get to the pros soon and want to start right now. Location helps, but you also have to feed into there egos


Thats what I always thought, but the researchers are basically saying that it seemed to have less to do with it then we think.

I agree with what you're saying too, knapp. It just goes to show what an awesome job Devaney and Osborne did to rebuild the program long before networks (see ESPN) helped build programs (see non-BCS conferences).
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Re: The State of Recruiting (SI.com)

Postby deerayfan072 » Thu Jan 22, 2009 2:28 pm

HskrPwr13 wrote:
deerayfan072 wrote:Interesting article ;-D


They left out what I think has become THE most important thing to students now and that is early playing time. Florida has lost 3 commits already because of how deep the depth chart is and how much everyone talks about the Gators having young talent. Andre Dubose (WR) was supposed to decommit if Percy came back because he wanted to play the "Percy Position" for Florida and wants to be 3 and done to go to the NFL. Most of these guys want to get to the pros soon and want to start right now. Location helps, but you also have to feed into there egos


Thats what I always thought, but the researchers are basically saying that it seemed to have less to do with it then we think.

I agree with what you're saying too, knapp. It just goes to show what an awesome job Devaney and Osborne did to rebuild the program long before networks (see ESPN) helped build programs (see non-BCS conferences).



They could be right, I am not expert ;-D .

I can just tell you from firsthand experience with these guys being recruited by FL. They are all from the South, were committed at one time, or had UF #1 and now they are all decommitting because of the depth chart or are going to other schools because those coaches are telling them they can start right away.
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Re: The State of Recruiting (SI.com)

Postby ShoelessJoe » Thu Jan 22, 2009 3:29 pm

knapplc wrote:A decade ago Oklahoma was atrocious. Now they're making regular trips to BCS bowls. Two decades ago LSU was a whipping boy. Now they're only one year removed from another title. USC was a storied, great program that had fallen to mediocrity before Pete Carroll came by. To me it's all cyclical. We're seeing a shift because of the 85 schollie limit, sure, but that's not to say that even that change is permanent. Oklahoma, USC, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Alabama, etc., these are all big-time programs with big-time boosters and huge fan bases. They're not going to be down for long, and they'll find a way to adapt and thrive even in the current climate of college football.


This article only furthers what I have been thinking for awhile. That it is not cyclical. What year did african-american players begin to be allowed to play major college football? I don't know for sure but I bet that as we move forward and see more african-american players from the southern states we will see these southern state schools doing well. Staples noted in the article the American move toward the South, but maybe a more appropriate comment would have been about the african-american football player in the south. Now I'm not saying that other races can't play football, what I'm saying is that there's a reason there is such a high percentage of african-american football players in NCAAF and the NFL.

Historically who are the programs you think of? USC, Oklahoma, Michigan, Notre Dame.

But who has dominated the last 15-20 years? FSU, Florida, USC, Ohio State, Miami, Oklahoma

You still have some northern schools but a higher percentage of southern schools are on that list. I think the color barrier being broken has had a much bigger impact on college football than any scholarship limit or other legislation. I think people are scared to do a study about it because of what it says about white and black athletes and I think that the southern schools who have more access to african-american players will dominate college football under the current system.
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Re: The State of Recruiting (SI.com)

Postby HskrPwr13 » Thu Jan 22, 2009 4:08 pm

ShoelessJoe wrote:
knapplc wrote:A decade ago Oklahoma was atrocious. Now they're making regular trips to BCS bowls. Two decades ago LSU was a whipping boy. Now they're only one year removed from another title. USC was a storied, great program that had fallen to mediocrity before Pete Carroll came by. To me it's all cyclical. We're seeing a shift because of the 85 schollie limit, sure, but that's not to say that even that change is permanent. Oklahoma, USC, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Alabama, etc., these are all big-time programs with big-time boosters and huge fan bases. They're not going to be down for long, and they'll find a way to adapt and thrive even in the current climate of college football.


This article only furthers what I have been thinking for awhile. That it is not cyclical. What year did african-american players begin to be allowed to play major college football? I don't know for sure but I bet that as we move forward and see more african-american players from the southern states we will see these southern state schools doing well. Staples noted in the article the American move toward the South, but maybe a more appropriate comment would have been about the african-american football player in the south. Now I'm not saying that other races can't play football, what I'm saying is that there's a reason there is such a high percentage of african-american football players in NCAAF and the NFL.

Historically who are the programs you think of? USC, Oklahoma, Michigan, Notre Dame.

But who has dominated the last 15-20 years? FSU, Florida, USC, Ohio State, Miami, Oklahoma

You still have some northern schools but a higher percentage of southern schools are on that list. I think the color barrier being broken has had a much bigger impact on college football than any scholarship limit or other legislation. I think people are scared to do a study about it because of what it says about white and black athletes and I think that the southern schools who have more access to african-american players will dominate college football under the current system.


Interesting thought. Its certainly a logical baseline for a study.

I've always said, especially when it comes to NU, if you get the correct coach that knows how to recruit, shmooze, hire a staff, and actually coach none of this actually matters. IMO, NU's decline over the last six years has had nothing to do with demographics. Solich isnt the leader that Osbrone is. Giving him the reigns was a mistake that was compounded by another mistake in hiring Pederson as the AD, which led to yet another mistake of hiring Callahan.

Again, I dont disagree with the premise of the article, but there are reasons why Fla, under Meyer, has been super successful when under Ron Zook, they were merely decent.
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