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Preventing Tanking

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Preventing Tanking

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Jan 21, 2009 6:17 pm

So, I'm looking to prevent tanking in a keeper/dynasty league. I love how the lottery is set up in the NBA. Wiki describes the process as "30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances

250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
199 combinations, 19.9% chance
156 combinations, 15.6% chance
119 combinations, 11.9% chance
88 combinations, 8.8% chance
63 combinations, 6.3% chance
43 combinations, 4.3% chance
28 combinations, 2.8% chance
17 combinations, 1.7% chance
11 combinations, 1.1% chance
8 combinations, 0.8% chance
7 combinations, 0.7% chance
6 combinations, 0.6% chance
5 combinations, 0.5% chance
Here are the odds for each seed to get specific picks if there were no ties (rounded to 3 decimal places):

Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004
6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001
7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
8 28 .028 .033 .039 .724 .168 .008 .000
9 17 .017 .020 .024 .813 .122 .004 .000
10 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000
11 8 .008 .009 .012 .907 .063 .001 .000
12 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000
13 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018
14 5 .005 .006 .007 .982"

Anyone know how I could duplicate this for my league(s)?
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Re: Preventing Tanking

Postby Matthias » Fri Jan 23, 2009 11:13 am

Same way the NBA does it except without the ping-pong balls.

Give the last-place team numbers 1-250.
Give the second to last-place team numbers 251-449.
Give the third to last-place team numbers 450-605.
etc., etc.

Go to Random Number Generator and punch in that you want one random integer generated with the range of the sum of whatever all those numbers add up to (eyeballing, it looks like 700, but you can do the math).

Generate a number.

Whatever team is holding that "ticket" or "ball" or however you want to think of it, gets the first pick.

Repeat the number generator, discarding results where you get someone who has already had their pick determined.

If you get bored of seeing the last-place team win over and over, go back and do new ranges, throwing out the people who already have their draft position until you have your whole draft order set.
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Re: Preventing Tanking

Postby Kareighuis » Sun Jan 25, 2009 2:08 pm

Great! Thanks, Matthias!- that'll do the job.

The thing the Wiki quote doesn't fully show is that each team basically has a brackett in which they could pick- the worst team isn't guaranteed the first pick, but is guaranteed the pick won't be lower than 4th overall.

Anyway to recreate these bracketts?-
12th team- 1st-2nd pick
11th team- 1st-3rd
10th team- 2nd-4th

9th- 3rd-5th
8th- 3rd-6th
7th-4th-6th
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Re: Preventing Tanking

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 26, 2009 1:22 am

Sure, if you want to.

To do the first pick, you put in the "numbers" for the 12th and 11th place team.
* If the 11th-place team wins, you give the 2nd pick to the 12th-place team.
* If the 12th-place team wins, you do another drawing.

You put in the "numbers" for the 12th and 11th place team.
* If the 10th-place team wins, you give the 3rd pick to the 11th-place team.
* If the 11th-place team wins, you do another drawing.

You put in the "numbers" for the 10th, 9th, and 8th place teams.
* etc., etc.

You should get the idea by now.
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Re: Preventing Tanking

Postby Kareighuis » Mon Jan 26, 2009 4:35 am

Matthias wrote:Sure, if you want to.

To do the first pick, you put in the "numbers" for the 12th and 11th place team.
* If the 11th-place team wins, you give the 2nd pick to the 12th-place team.
* If the 12th-place team wins, you do another drawing.

You put in the "numbers" for the 12th and 11th place team.
* If the 10th-place team wins, you give the 3rd pick to the 11th-place team.
* If the 11th-place team wins, you do another drawing.

You put in the "numbers" for the 10th, 9th, and 8th place teams.
* etc., etc.

You should get the idea by now.


Yeah, that was the only way I could envision it. People sometimes talk about the NBA draft being fixed, but I think that's largely because of how the lottery is conducted. I was hoping for a simple, transparent process with a minimum number of steps. Yet again, I come up with something that can't really be done.

Thanks for the help, Matthias!
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Re: Preventing Tanking

Postby strider2k2 » Wed Feb 04, 2009 4:36 pm

I don't know how many teams are in your league, but I do something similar with the NHl draft and my hockey league. I have found a very easy way to take the sting out of the process.

Let's say that you have a 16 team league. You assign each team in your league an NBA team based on the final standings, working your way from the bottom up. Your worst team would be assigned the NBA's worst team, your second worst team would be assigned the NBA's second worst team, etc. In a 16 team league this would mean the two teams that made the finals have no shot at the top pick.

Now all you do is wait for the NBA to hold it's lottery, and then assign the draft positions of the bottom 16 NBA teams to your league. This let's the NBA do all of the work. Since the NBA draft is in June, this should work out fine even for football leagues.
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Re: Preventing Tanking

Postby LS2throwed » Fri Feb 06, 2009 8:00 pm

strider2k2 wrote:I don't know how many teams are in your league, but I do something similar with the NHl draft and my hockey league. I have found a very easy way to take the sting out of the process.

Let's say that you have a 16 team league. You assign each team in your league an NBA team based on the final standings, working your way from the bottom up. Your worst team would be assigned the NBA's worst team, your second worst team would be assigned the NBA's second worst team, etc. In a 16 team league this would mean the two teams that made the finals have no shot at the top pick.

Now all you do is wait for the NBA to hold it's lottery, and then assign the draft positions of the bottom 16 NBA teams to your league. This let's the NBA do all of the work. Since the NBA draft is in June, this should work out fine even for football leagues.




That's pretty interesting, not a bad idea, just don't know if I'd want the fate of my team in the hands of another real life team in a completely different sport...I think consolation brackets prevent people from tanking, just use those...I don't like the idea of people tanking for picks, but I also don't like when there is clearly a weaker and less talented team in the league and that team may not even pick in the top 3 one year, so I guess it depends on the league.
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Re: Preventing Tanking

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Feb 18, 2009 5:12 pm

LS2throwed wrote:
strider2k2 wrote:I don't know how many teams are in your league, but I do something similar with the NHl draft and my hockey league. I have found a very easy way to take the sting out of the process.

Let's say that you have a 16 team league. You assign each team in your league an NBA team based on the final standings, working your way from the bottom up. Your worst team would be assigned the NBA's worst team, your second worst team would be assigned the NBA's second worst team, etc. In a 16 team league this would mean the two teams that made the finals have no shot at the top pick.

Now all you do is wait for the NBA to hold it's lottery, and then assign the draft positions of the bottom 16 NBA teams to your league. This let's the NBA do all of the work. Since the NBA draft is in June, this should work out fine even for football leagues.


That's pretty interesting, not a bad idea, just don't know if I'd want the fate of my team in the hands of another real life team in a completely different sport...I think consolation brackets prevent people from tanking, just use those...I don't like the idea of people tanking for picks, but I also don't like when there is clearly a weaker and less talented team in the league and that team may not even pick in the top 3 one year, so I guess it depends on the league.


Not a bad idea, Strider. But, I'd rather there be more of a connection between how a person's team performs and their draft position.

LS2- I'd like to see if I can do something different from the same ol' consolation brackets. One of the things I don't like about them- like you, I also don't like when there is clearly a weaker and less talented team in the league and they don't get a top-tier pick.

That's what I like about the NBA lottery- a team isn't guaranteed the top pick if it tanks badly enough, a borderline team that barely misses the playoffs isn't consigned with the worst lottery pick. And, the lottery creates an opportunity for even more drama.
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