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MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

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MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby bungle613 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 11:12 am

Per Rotoworld

The Jags have agreed to terms with Maurice Jones-Drew on a four-year extension worth more than $32 million.

The deal's annual average of $8.2 million will make MJD one of the three highest paid backs in the NFL. While Jones-Drew has never been a featured back, he's been one of the most effective in the game on a per-touch basis. The new deal cements his role as the offensive fulcrum in Jacksonville.
Source: ESPN.com


Good deal for both sides.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:46 pm

We'll see...I'm still not sold on him as a feature back and they almost HAVE to use him as one now with all that money they're throwing his way so we'll see if it ends up being a good idea to send that much money towards someone who hasn't proven he can do it as "the guy" yet.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby bungle613 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:05 pm

mattb47 wrote:We'll see...I'm still not sold on him as a feature back and they almost HAVE to use him as one now with all that money they're throwing his way so we'll see if it ends up being a good idea to send that much money towards someone who hasn't proven he can do it as "the guy" yet.


I'll disagree. Even if they use Greg Jones for goal line or spell MJD with another back he still produces huge numbers on a per touch basis. Give him 20-25 touches per game, I think he is a top 5 FF back. To me it is like getting a top 10 RB pick but already seeing that he can produce at a high level in the NFL.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:48 pm

bungle613 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:We'll see...I'm still not sold on him as a feature back and they almost HAVE to use him as one now with all that money they're throwing his way so we'll see if it ends up being a good idea to send that much money towards someone who hasn't proven he can do it as "the guy" yet.


I'll disagree. Even if they use Greg Jones for goal line or spell MJD with another back he still produces huge numbers on a per touch basis. Give him 20-25 touches per game, I think he is a top 5 FF back. To me it is like getting a top 10 RB pick but already seeing that he can produce at a high level in the NFL.


If they give Greg Jones goal line work he is NOT a top 5 FF back because one of his advantages in the past few seasons is that he has gotten those touches near the goal line...take those away and he's not nearly as good of a fantasy back. Asking him to increase his load to 20-25 touches per game when the MOST he has averaged in any season in his career is a grand total of 17 touches per game? I'm sorry...but 3-8 MORE touches per game for an entire season is a ton of wear and tear, especially if most of them come in the form of carries. I just don't think he'll hold up for a season like that.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby bungle613 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:03 pm

mattb47 wrote:
bungle613 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:We'll see...I'm still not sold on him as a feature back and they almost HAVE to use him as one now with all that money they're throwing his way so we'll see if it ends up being a good idea to send that much money towards someone who hasn't proven he can do it as "the guy" yet.


I'll disagree. Even if they use Greg Jones for goal line or spell MJD with another back he still produces huge numbers on a per touch basis. Give him 20-25 touches per game, I think he is a top 5 FF back. To me it is like getting a top 10 RB pick but already seeing that he can produce at a high level in the NFL.


If they give Greg Jones goal line work he is NOT a top 5 FF back because one of his advantages in the past few seasons is that he has gotten those touches near the goal line...take those away and he's not nearly as good of a fantasy back. Asking him to increase his load to 20-25 touches per game when the MOST he has averaged in any season in his career is a grand total of 17 touches per game? I'm sorry...but 3-8 MORE touches per game for an entire season is a ton of wear and tear, especially if most of them come in the form of carries. I just don't think he'll hold up for a season like that.


Fair enough, we can have this discussion again in January. I think he will lose, for lack of a better description, "true" goal line carries of inside the 2. He has done very well with 17 touches on an NFL level and I would put my trust AND money in paying him to go up to 20-25 touches vs trusting a college kid could do it. He may be short but he is built for the long haul.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:17 pm

We'll see...there are A LOT of guys that are very talented but just can't handle that kind of a load. Losing any kind of goal line carries significantly hurts his value...trying to lessen that by just saying he'll ONLY lose the "true goal line carries" is hoping at best if Greg Jones starts to get some of those.

Here's how I see it. Bottom line is that he either splits again and gets paid like a top 5 back without top 5 carries and likely splits with someone like Greg Jones who changes his role from the past few years by losing goal line carries. Or, he gets a heavier workload and I think he breaks down injury wise like A LOT of RBs do in this league...20-25 touches at the RB position is a ton of wear and tear on the body and I'm just not sold he can take it when he's never had to do it.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby Sex Panther » Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:10 pm

Granted, this may come across as trivial, but in the 9 games in his career that MJD got 20 or more touches on offense...

He averaged the following:

20.5 carries
97.1 yards per game
4.7 yards per carry
3.5 catches
36.2 receiving yards per game
10.2 yards per catch
1 TD per game.

That's a 19.3 FF ppg average, bump that up to 22.3 FF ppg ppr average.

Again, extrapolating a 9 game average which happened over the course of 3 years may mean diddly in some eyes, in others it may mean that when given the touches, more often than not, he has produced at an elite level.

Here are his game by game stats when he got his 20+ offenseive touches -

2008

INDY - 19 carries, 107 yards, 5.6 YPC, 1 rush TD, 4 catches, 59 yards, 14.8 YPR
DEN - 22 carries, 125 yards, 5.7 YPC, 2 rush TD, 2 catches, 23 yards, 11.5 YPR
TEN - 17 carries, 66 yards, 3.9 YPC, 2 rush TD, 3 catches, 27 yards, 9 YPR
INDY - 20 carries, 91 yards, 4.6 YPC, 7 catches, 71 yards, 10.1 YPR
BAL - 23 carries, 78 yards, 3.4 YPC, 1 catch, 10 yards, 10 YPR

2007

TEN - 19 carries, 101 yards, 5.3 YPC, 1 rush TD, 3 catches, 28 yards, 9.3 YPR

2006

PHIL - 21 carries, 77 yards, 3.7 YPC, 3 catches, 20 yards, 6.7 YPR
TEN - 25 carries, 98 yards, 3.9 YPC, 1 rush TD, 3 catches, 47 yards, 15.7 YPR
NE - 19 carries, 131 yards, 6.9 YPC, 2 rush TD, 6 catches, 41 yards, 6.8 YPR


If MJD can average between 20-22 offensive touches per game - which would put him at 320-352 touches for 2009, I don't think injuries are any more of a concern for him then they are for any other back.

Of those 320-352 touches, I would imagine somewhere between 50-75 will be catches. So, he should get somewhere between 245 and 302 carries, if the Jags are smart - it's closer to 245 than it is to 300.

Long story short, MJD is somebody I'm targeting in all my leagues in 2009.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby bungle613 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:18 pm

mattb47 wrote:We'll see...there are A LOT of guys that are very talented but just can't handle that kind of a load. Losing any kind of goal line carries significantly hurts his value...trying to lessen that by just saying he'll ONLY lose the "true goal line carries" is hoping at best if Greg Jones starts to get some of those.

Here's how I see it. Bottom line is that he either splits again and gets paid like a top 5 back without top 5 carries and likely splits with someone like Greg Jones who changes his role from the past few years by losing goal line carries. Or, he gets a heavier workload and I think he breaks down injury wise like A LOT of RBs do in this league...20-25 touches at the RB position is a ton of wear and tear on the body and I'm just not sold he can take it when he's never had to do it.


I just don't see the reason for the physical knock on him. He is shorter but is huge, this isn't Sproles. I'll take the risk and easily use a top 5 pick on him. Just dealt for him in a keeper league. Actually overpaid for him but am happy with the deal.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:43 pm

Sex Panther wrote:Granted, this may come across as trivial, but in the 9 games in his career that MJD got 20 or more touches on offense...

He averaged the following:

20.5 carries
97.1 yards per game
4.7 yards per carry
3.5 catches
36.2 receiving yards per game
10.2 yards per catch
1 TD per game.

That's a 19.3 FF ppg average, bump that up to 22.3 FF ppg ppr average.

Again, extrapolating a 9 game average which happened over the course of 3 years may mean diddly in some eyes, in others it may mean that when given the touches, more often than not, he has produced at an elite level.

Here are his game by game stats when he got his 20+ offenseive touches -

2008

INDY - 19 carries, 107 yards, 5.6 YPC, 1 rush TD, 4 catches, 59 yards, 14.8 YPR
DEN - 22 carries, 125 yards, 5.7 YPC, 2 rush TD, 2 catches, 23 yards, 11.5 YPR
TEN - 17 carries, 66 yards, 3.9 YPC, 2 rush TD, 3 catches, 27 yards, 9 YPR
INDY - 20 carries, 91 yards, 4.6 YPC, 7 catches, 71 yards, 10.1 YPR
BAL - 23 carries, 78 yards, 3.4 YPC, 1 catch, 10 yards, 10 YPR

2007

TEN - 19 carries, 101 yards, 5.3 YPC, 1 rush TD, 3 catches, 28 yards, 9.3 YPR

2006

PHIL - 21 carries, 77 yards, 3.7 YPC, 3 catches, 20 yards, 6.7 YPR
TEN - 25 carries, 98 yards, 3.9 YPC, 1 rush TD, 3 catches, 47 yards, 15.7 YPR
NE - 19 carries, 131 yards, 6.9 YPC, 2 rush TD, 6 catches, 41 yards, 6.8 YPR


If MJD can average between 20-22 offensive touches per game - which would put him at 320-352 touches for 2009, I don't think injuries are any more of a concern for him then they are for any other back.

Of those 320-352 touches, I would imagine somewhere between 50-75 will be catches. So, he should get somewhere between 245 and 302 carries, if the Jags are smart - it's closer to 245 than it is to 300.

Long story short, MJD is somebody I'm targeting in all my leagues in 2009.


Sorry...comparing how he did on 20 or more touches ON OCCASION is nowhere near the same as how it is on a consistent basis throughout the season. They are so different it's hardly worth mentioning or even taking into account....because the plain fact of the matter is that even with those high touch games, he still had a maximum of just 17 touches per game in any season. So the fact that he had a few games with more than 20 means that he had plenty with less than 15 which means he had far less wear in those other games. If a guy like LT or AD could be that healthy and just get the occasional 20+ touch game...they would be putting up FAR bigger numbers than "normal".

Also...consider that 3 of those 5 games he did that last season were against some of the worst defenses he faced all season (Indy and Denver) and it's far less "amazing" with the numbers he put up.

Injuries are a concern for me because he hasn't done it before...it's as simple as that. I'm not saying he'll be terrible or that he CAN'T be a top 5 back, but I am not one that reaches for guys like this who haven't proven it. For every Micheal Turner there are 5 more that don't work out like that. Drafting him as a top 5 back means that he HAS to live up to what is probably his highest potential to be worth it....I generally try to stay away from drafting guys like that that highly.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby Azrael » Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:50 pm

I don't know why they would give GJ the goal line touches when MJD has been so good at cashing them in.
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