MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby Free Bagel » Mon Apr 20, 2009 8:57 pm

Even though I'm pretty high on MJD myself I still think Matt makes a fair point.

When you draft someone in fantasy football, especially in the first round, you typically are looking to get someone who's expected output is good value for where you're drafting them, and who's upside would be a steal where you're drafting them.

If you draft a guy high and his upside is equal to that draft position, you're not really getting a big win if he hits his upside since it's no different than drafting someone in the same spot that has an equivalent expected output and meets it as well. Last year Roddy White was a steal as a 6th round draft pick because he performed like a 2nd/3rd round draft pick. But if you drafted him in the 2nd/3rd round you didn't really do any better than if you had just picked a guy like Reggie Wayne who was expected to perform that way and did it as well. The bargain in fantasy football comes with getting guys at their expected values and having them hit their upside.

So that's really what it comes down to with MJD. Do you believe his upside is a top 3 FF RB, or do you expect him to be a top 3 FF RB with an upside for even more? If you answered the former, he's probably not worth a top 3 pick to you. If you answered the latter, then maybe he is.

Kensat30 wrote:At what point has MJD shown himself to be injury prone and or wear down with excessive touches?


Didn't MJD get hurt in one of the games at the end of last year after that Taylor was sitting out? I don't think it ended up being anything too bad, but I remember worrying at the time that it was going to be something that might scare the Jacksonville staff into keeping him in a RBBC, and I'd much rather see what he can do as a feature guy.

Also in those 3 games his YPC was 3.9, which is well below his career average of 4.8. Small sample size of course, and not enough to worry me, but he didn't exactly light the world on fire from either a production (or at least NFL production, since his fantasy numbers were still good) or health standpoint in his limited stint as a feature guy.

ETA: Looks like the injury was a sprained knee in week 16 against Indy. He sat out practice for the next 9 days but was able to play in their next game 10 days later. Not a great sign that he went 45 consecutive games splitting time without much of anything in the way of a notable injury, but sprained a knee in his 2nd game carrying the load.
Image
Free Bagel
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 8495
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Titletown, FL

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Mon Apr 20, 2009 9:16 pm

Free Bagel wrote:Even though I'm pretty high on MJD myself I still think Matt makes a fair point.

When you draft someone in fantasy football, especially in the first round, you typically are looking to get someone who's expected output is good value for where you're drafting them, and who's upside would be a steal where you're drafting them.

If you draft a guy high and his upside is equal to that draft position, you're not really getting a big win if he hits his upside since it's no different than drafting someone in the same spot that has an equivalent expected output and meets it as well. Last year Roddy White was a steal as a 6th round draft pick because he performed like a 2nd/3rd round draft pick. But if you drafted him in the 2nd/3rd round you didn't really do any better than if you had just picked a guy like Reggie Wayne who was expected to perform that way and did it as well. The bargain in fantasy football comes with getting guys at their expected values and having them hit their upside.

So that's really what it comes down to with MJD. Do you believe his upside is a top 3 FF RB, or do you expect him to be a top 3 FF RB with an upside for even more? If you answered the former, he's probably not worth a top 3 pick to you. If you answered the latter, then maybe he is.

Kensat30 wrote:At what point has MJD shown himself to be injury prone and or wear down with excessive touches?


Didn't MJD get hurt in one of the games at the end of last year that Fred Taylor was sitting out? I don't think it ended up being anything too bad, but I remember worrying at the time that it was going to be something that might scare the Jacksonville staff into keeping him in a RBBC, and I'd much rather see what he can do as a feature guy.

Also in those 3 games his YPC was 3.9, which is well below his career average of 4.8. Small sample size of course, and not enough to worry me, but he didn't exactly light the world on fire from either a production (or at least NFL production, since his fantasy numbers were still good) or health standpoint in his limited stint as a feature guy.


Thank you FB...that's exactly what I'm talking about. People are getting WAY too caught up on small things that are just side things I'm adding that they are failing to even listen to the big picture of what I'm trying to say and what FB did say so nicely here.

I think you guys are kidding yourselves though if you don't see the risk of a guy going from 17 touches per game (12 carries) to 25 touches per game over a whole season. More touches isn't a bad things when you're talking about a guy already getting a pretty hefty load and getting more carries each game, but having NEVER had over 200 carries, that's not the case here.

The whole thing for me, like FB said though is about where you're drafting him and what you're expecting of him...if his upside is where you're drafting him then it's probably not the best value for the pick.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattUTD20 » Mon Apr 20, 2009 10:45 pm

So who do you have in the top 5 ahead of MJD?
"Maurice Jones-Drew, below the waist, is incredible." Mike Mayock

Cafe Leagues

Eat Cheese Dynasty (Owner: 2 year) CuYr: 2 PvYr: 1
Ball Breakers Keeper (Owner: 2 year) CuYr: 3 PvYr: 2
4th and Goal Dynasty (Owner: 2 year) CuYr: 2 PvYr: 9
mattUTD20
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe MusketeerLucky Ladders ChampionCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 1409
Joined: 22 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby bungle613 » Mon Apr 20, 2009 11:41 pm

Free Bagel wrote:Even though I'm pretty high on MJD myself I still think Matt makes a fair point.

When you draft someone in fantasy football, especially in the first round, you typically are looking to get someone who's expected output is good value for where you're drafting them, and who's upside would be a steal where you're drafting them.

If you draft a guy high and his upside is equal to that draft position, you're not really getting a big win if he hits his upside since it's no different than drafting someone in the same spot that has an equivalent expected output and meets it as well. Last year Roddy White was a steal as a 6th round draft pick because he performed like a 2nd/3rd round draft pick. But if you drafted him in the 2nd/3rd round you didn't really do any better than if you had just picked a guy like Reggie Wayne who was expected to perform that way and did it as well. The bargain in fantasy football comes with getting guys at their expected values and having them hit their upside.

So that's really what it comes down to with MJD. Do you believe his upside is a top 3 FF RB, or do you expect him to be a top 3 FF RB with an upside for even more? If you answered the former, he's probably not worth a top 3 pick to you. If you answered the latter, then maybe he is.

Kensat30 wrote:At what point has MJD shown himself to be injury prone and or wear down with excessive touches?


Didn't MJD get hurt in one of the games at the end of last year after that Taylor was sitting out? I don't think it ended up being anything too bad, but I remember worrying at the time that it was going to be something that might scare the Jacksonville staff into keeping him in a RBBC, and I'd much rather see what he can do as a feature guy.

Also in those 3 games his YPC was 3.9, which is well below his career average of 4.8. Small sample size of course, and not enough to worry me, but he didn't exactly light the world on fire from either a production (or at least NFL production, since his fantasy numbers were still good) or health standpoint in his limited stint as a feature guy.

ETA: Looks like the injury was a sprained knee in week 16 against Indy. He sat out practice for the next 9 days but was able to play in their next game 10 days later. Not a great sign that he went 45 consecutive games splitting time without much of anything in the way of a notable injury, but sprained a knee in his 2nd game carrying the load.



I understand your point FB but really, the first round, at least the first 6-8 picks or so there is no upside. They are the best RB available at the time of the draft. I can possibley see the argument for say 7-12 that you may move a guy up you think will have the breakout year or stay healthy or whatever but traditionally the first 5-6 picks are the best available. You rarely see an owner grab Jacobs at 1.06 because his upside is huge... you take who you have ranked highest of the consensus top 5-6 and play as safe as possible because these picks HAVE to count.

Right now I have, in no specific order in a non PPR (except #1)

AP
Turner
MJD
Forte
SJax

I can see arguments to replace out your least favourite in this list and throw in a Westy, Gore, LT but those are going to 5 of the first 7 RB's off the board barring injury or trade.
Image
Image
bungle613
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 10988
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 31 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: straight ahead, hang a left, look down

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 3:04 am

I'm sorry, but leaving LT off that list is a crime. In the worst year we've seen from him because of nagging injuries all season long, in standard scoring non-PPR leagues he was still #6 in total fantasy points for RBs...3 slots ahead of MJD who was 9th. In a .5 PPR league which is pretty common right now, he was #5, even slightly ahead of ADP himself.

Here's how I would put them and why since people seem to be interested...although it's early so I haven't put as much thought into it yet:

1. Adrian Peterson - Young, ridiculously talented and should have a moderately improved passing game to keep defenses a bit more honest than last year. Pretty much the consensus #1 this season.

2. LaDainian Tomlinson - I'm sure many will disagree with me here but if I'm anywhere in the top 5 except for #1 and LT is on the board...I'm taking him without a hint of hesitation. He's the kind of back we're talking about when we talk about a RB with upside higher than where he's being picked even in the top 5 players and with a reasonable downside that still places him at least near the top 5 barring serious injury.

3. Micheal Turner - I'd be a tad hesitant about taking him this high just because of how RBs tend to fall off a bit after the kind of workload he received last season. 383 total touches in the regular season (377 being carries) is a very rough load for a RB in such a short time and we've seen time and again how RBs have trouble the season following a workload as strenuous as what Turner had last season. That being said, if he stays healthy he's nearly a lock for 325-350 carries and that's tough to pass up especially after he has proven he can be "the man".

4. Steven Jackson - Only 2 RBs last season averaged more fantasy points per game than Jackson did despite being on the abysmal St. Louis Rams offense. DeAngelo Williams and Micheal Turner both averaged more FP but S-Jax right there behind them. The Rams will be improved from last season (it doesn't take much) and you can expect them to rely on Jackson a lot for their offensive production next season. He's had some injury issues but he's played in at least 12 games every season for his entire career and he just plain produces when he's on the field.

5. Matt Forte - It's very tough to ignore what Forte was able to do last season as a rookie and being able to carry the workload required of him. He had a few less touches than Turner did but the big difference is he had over 60 fewer carries which will help his longevity a bit. It's hard to imagine the potential success he can have when you throw in an actual QB for the Bears who can make plays with his arm as well...teams loaded up against the run last season and he still was fantastic so it's not crazy to expect big things from him when he's on an offense with more than one weapon.

6. Frank Gore - I haven't ever been the biggest Gore supporter but I think he could be in for a big season this year. One thing we do know about SF this year is they will pound the rock...that's what Singletary brings to that team is the attitude of making sure you establish the run. That's why Martz isn't there anymore, he doesn't fit the kind of offense they want to run and they will have it centered around Gore this season. Don't be surprised to see 350+ total touches for him this season.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew - His role is somewhat in question for the next season and we'll know more after the draft but that's enough to drop him a few spots on my chart. If he stays in a similar role that he has been in but with more touches (say 225 carries, 50-60 receptions) then I could see him top 5 because he's been successful in that role before. We'll have to wait till the dust settles after the draft to know what the "RB situation" is in Jacksonville but I'm happy with him here for the time being. Would be higher in PPR.

8. DeAngelo Williams - Another player who did an awful lot per touch last season...almost MJD-esque as he finished as the #1 overall RB despite just 296 touches last season. I'm tempted to bump him higher because I don't see much changing as far as the roles go for next season between him and Stewart with the enormous success they had this past season but it's hard to expect him to do as much per touch as he did this past year. I don't see his TD count staying at 20 next season.

9. Clinton Portis - At some point the workload becomes a concern because of the beating he continues to take year in and year out but he produces and that's what you look for in a top 10 pick. Tough to pass up 370 touches which is what he had last season and 372 which he had 2 seasons ago. That's pretty consistent touch wise and most NFL RBs will perform easily well enough to be top 10 with that kind of commitment to them.

10. Brian Westbrook - Might seem a bit low but he took a sizable step back last season from where he was 2 years ago and injuries are the constant concern for him. He'd get a big bump in PPR leagues, but non-PPR he's down here for me. Failed to break 1000 yards rushing this season but was saved by 14 total TDs on fewer than 300 touches. Could have been feeling it a bit from the previous season where he got 368 touches but only time will tell. If the Eagles draft a RB like many think they will he could see some of the touches gone and could very well finish below 300 touches yet again next season and a borderline top 10 finish.

Others Considered:
Steve Slaton
Chris Johnson
Brandon Jacobs
Thomas Jones
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby LS2throwed » Tue Apr 21, 2009 10:26 am

LT wasn't worth the #2 overall pick last year, why would he be when he's one year older, with more injuries piling up, on the wrong side of 30, and with San Diego primed to take a RB? If you want to talk about MJD with question marks LT has a million of them...You can talk about the past all you want, but that doesn't really mean much for the future when your a RB and reach 30.


If you want to talk about how many touches Turner had, look at the amount of touches LT has had over his career, knowing everything we know, and how he was a huge dissapointment for owners taking him #2 last year, I see no upside, or real reason to expect him to hold that draft position...The guy you didn't even list in Chris Johnson is going to outscore him next year.
Image
Current Cafe Dynasties:
4th and Goal
Fourth & Inches
Double D
Any Given Dynasty
Eat Cheese Dynasty
NFL's Finest
Cafe Very Special Forces
LS2throwed
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 5373
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Arlington, Texas

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:29 pm

LS2throwed wrote:LT wasn't worth the #2 overall pick last year, why would he be when he's one year older, with more injuries piling up, on the wrong side of 30, and with San Diego primed to take a RB? If you want to talk about MJD with question marks LT has a million of them...You can talk about the past all you want, but that doesn't really mean much for the future when your a RB and reach 30.


If you want to talk about how many touches Turner had, look at the amount of touches LT has had over his career, knowing everything we know, and how he was a huge dissapointment for owners taking him #2 last year, I see no upside, or real reason to expect him to hold that draft position...The guy you didn't even list in Chris Johnson is going to outscore him next year.


Actually...LT was one of the only guys taken top 5 in drafts last year that could have been considered "worth it" based on how he finished. They weren't record breaking numbers or anything like that, or what people have gotten from him in other years but he was still the #6 fantasy back with nagging injuries plaguing him all season long. Where did the other guys in the top 5 last season finish? ADP finished just ahead of him at #4, Brian Westbrook finished #10, Steven Jackson #14, Portis #8, Gore #15. Those were some of the other guys considered highly last season and how did they all finish? Just because he didn't have 1800 yards rushing and 20+ TDs doesn't mean that he wasn't worth the pick...he's as sure of a thing as you'll find fantasy wise.

The past is the best indication of future success...the fact that he's been in this role for years and has held up pretty well and even played well last year considering the little nagging toe injury and other things he had all season is a positive for me. Nagging injuries that guys are able to play through is not the same as tearing your ACL or something, those aren't the "injuries of concern" in a situation like this.

His upside is being the best fantasy back in the league...we've seen it before and I don't think he's done just yet. His downside is a similar performance to last season which still places him around the top 5, top 10 at the worst. That's what you call a low risk pick because even when he's struggling he gets the ball enough to put up some numbers and he still performs better than most of the other RBs in this league. Want to know how many players have been in the top 6 in each of the last 3 seasons? Just 1. In fact, he's been in the top 6 for the last 7 seasons and the season right before that he was #7. The guy just plain produces, I will gladly take him this season without even the slightest bit of concern when you look at everyone else and think about the upside/downside discussion.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 3:41 pm

4. Steven Jackson - Only 2 RBs last season averaged more fantasy points per game than Jackson did despite being on the abysmal St. Louis Rams offense. DeAngelo Williams and Micheal Turner both averaged more FP but S-Jax right there behind them. The Rams will be improved from last season (it doesn't take much) and you can expect them to rely on Jackson a lot for their offensive production next season. He's had some injury issues but he's played in at least 12 games every season for his entire career and he just plain produces when he's on the field.


Hey Matt, how can you have injury concerns with MJD and not with Steven Jackson? MJD hasn't shown yet what he will do under a full-load, but Steven Jackson actually HAS gotten injured handling a full load. And it's pretty well known that the turf in St. Louis is pretty unforgiving.
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 4:19 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
4. Steven Jackson - Only 2 RBs last season averaged more fantasy points per game than Jackson did despite being on the abysmal St. Louis Rams offense. DeAngelo Williams and Micheal Turner both averaged more FP but S-Jax right there behind them. The Rams will be improved from last season (it doesn't take much) and you can expect them to rely on Jackson a lot for their offensive production next season. He's had some injury issues but he's played in at least 12 games every season for his entire career and he just plain produces when he's on the field.


Hey Matt, how can you have injury concerns with MJD and not with Steven Jackson? MJD hasn't shown yet what he will do under a full-load, but Steven Jackson actually HAS gotten injured handling a full load. And it's pretty well known that the turf in St. Louis is pretty unforgiving.


I have some concerns with Jackson but while he has had some injury issues, he has still carried a heavy load as a RB with success and proven that he can be very productive with a heavier week to week load. He hasn't had any major injuries which are the biggest red flag for me and he's still played a minimum of 12 games each season. Over the past 3 seasons he has averaged 20.9 carries per game and has played 40 games in the past 3 seasons which is 13.3 games per season...I'll take top 3 production for 13 games a season.

The concerns aren't necessarily "injury concerns" with MJD so much as a likely drastic change in role this season and the effect it could have on both his durability and performance over the course of the season. For me personally, the bigger red flags have always been those who are having such a drastic change like this who haven't "proven" they can handle a heavier load like he could be having and those with big injuries (i.e. ACL Tear).

Again...these are my personal rankings that are based largely on what I would actually do in a draft. There are some players I like more than others and some things I value higher than other people would...you're free to disagree but I do think these things through.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby bungle613 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 4:27 pm

Just cause I have wanted to say it for 3 days now....

The closest comparison I can get to MJD is DWill. First 2 years, didn't crack 150 carries, only started 2 games. Given the reigns.. starts all 16 games, 274 carries and the #1 FF RB.

MJD... first 3 years, never cracked 200 carries, only started 4 games. Biggest difference between them in early comparisons, DWill sucked with his touches only to become the #1 FF back. MJD was elite on a per touch basis.

MJD given the reigns... I'll take my chances.
Image
Image
bungle613
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 10988
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 31 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: straight ahead, hang a left, look down

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 13:19 hours
(and 44 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact