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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 4:46 pm

bungle613 wrote:Just cause I have wanted to say it for 3 days now....

The closest comparison I can get to MJD is DWill. First 2 years, didn't crack 150 carries, only started 2 games. Given the reigns.. starts all 16 games, 274 carries and the #1 FF RB.

MJD... first 3 years, never cracked 200 carries, only started 4 games. Biggest difference between them in early comparisons, DWill sucked with his touches only to become the #1 FF back. MJD was elite on a per touch basis.

MJD given the reigns... I'll take my chances.


Big flaw in that comparison is that for it to really become a reality and a legitimate comparison, there needs to be a "Jonathan Stewart" for MJD which is kind of what I said in my rankings thing. He needs a guy that can step in, take a slightly smaller role than Fred Taylor did, but enough to keep him from breaking down during the season. DeAngelo Williams still had fewer than 300 touches on the season, not quite "given the reigns" but people here are talking more in the 325+ touches range which is a tad different. I think if they keep him closer to 300 touches he could be a very successful back this year but the problem is that it assumes the ideal situation. I'm not taking a guy top 5 that needs the ideal situation to come true to be a top 5 back...
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby bungle613 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 4:56 pm

The days of 300+ carries as being the standard for a feature back are over. Out of all the RB's last year only 5 had more than 300 carries. I believe MJD will be given the reigns but the reigns in the new NFL and get right around 300 carries. I appeciate your arguments and understand you are not bashing MJD but I just don't see any reason to be cautious of a guy that has put up fantastic FF numbers when he is going to get an additional 75 or so touches.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 7:33 pm

bungle613 wrote:The days of 300+ carries as being the standard for a feature back are over. Out of all the RB's last year only 5 had more than 300 carries. I believe MJD will be given the reigns but the reigns in the new NFL and get right around 300 carries. I appeciate your arguments and understand you are not bashing MJD but I just don't see any reason to be cautious of a guy that has put up fantastic FF numbers when he is going to get an additional 75 or so touches.


And what I'm saying is that I think if they give him 300 carries and then 50 or so receptions as well that it's a little worrisome to me because I am just not sold on the idea that all backs are built to endure a workload like that. He's done very well with limited touches, but how will that change when you increase his workload by a sizable margin? Think about it...if he ends up "right around 300 carries" like you think he will, and then if he gets his average of about 50+ receptions per season...then we're talking 350+ touches for a guy who has NEVER even had 260 in a single season. That's 90-100+ more touches than he's ever had and while that could transfer to bigger numbers, it can also transfer to wearing down heavily as the season goes on. It's the difference of about 6+ more touches per game which may seem like a small number, but over the whole season it makes a rather large difference.

Like I said...if they bring another back in that can even take a slightly smaller role than Fred Taylor had then it will change things...but if they're planning on trying to increase his workload to the level that even you just suggested, it's a very significant increase in wear and tear over the course of a regular season. I'd be concerned of any RB having their role change so dramatically as what is being talked about here with MJD.

Also consider that last season when he received the most touches he's ever had, his runs of 20+ yards dropped from 7 and 8 in '06 and '07, to just 3 in 08. In '07 he averaged one 20+ yard run for every 20.8 carries. In '08, he had one 20+ yard run every 65.7 carries. His fumbles also increased from just 1 in both '06 and '07 to 4 in '08. His YPC has also dropped in each season since he's been in the league...started out with 5.7 in '06, then dropped to 4.6 in '07, then with 30 more carries in '08 he averaged just 4.2 ypc. It's not unreasonable to think that the ypc could possibly even drop further with 100 more carries like is being suggested here.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby LS2throwed » Tue Apr 21, 2009 9:25 pm

mattb47 wrote:
LS2throwed wrote:LT wasn't worth the #2 overall pick last year, why would he be when he's one year older, with more injuries piling up, on the wrong side of 30, and with San Diego primed to take a RB? If you want to talk about MJD with question marks LT has a million of them...You can talk about the past all you want, but that doesn't really mean much for the future when your a RB and reach 30.


If you want to talk about how many touches Turner had, look at the amount of touches LT has had over his career, knowing everything we know, and how he was a huge dissapointment for owners taking him #2 last year, I see no upside, or real reason to expect him to hold that draft position...The guy you didn't even list in Chris Johnson is going to outscore him next year.


Actually...LT was one of the only guys taken top 5 in drafts last year that could have been considered "worth it" based on how he finished. They weren't record breaking numbers or anything like that, or what people have gotten from him in other years but he was still the #6 fantasy back with nagging injuries plaguing him all season long. Where did the other guys in the top 5 last season finish? ADP finished just ahead of him at #4, Brian Westbrook finished #10, Steven Jackson #14, Portis #8, Gore #15. Those were some of the other guys considered highly last season and how did they all finish? Just because he didn't have 1800 yards rushing and 20+ TDs doesn't mean that he wasn't worth the pick...he's as sure of a thing as you'll find fantasy wise.

The past is the best indication of future success...the fact that he's been in this role for years and has held up pretty well and even played well last year considering the little nagging toe injury and other things he had all season is a positive for me. Nagging injuries that guys are able to play through is not the same as tearing your ACL or something, those aren't the "injuries of concern" in a situation like this.

His upside is being the best fantasy back in the league...we've seen it before and I don't think he's done just yet. His downside is a similar performance to last season which still places him around the top 5, top 10 at the worst. That's what you call a low risk pick because even when he's struggling he gets the ball enough to put up some numbers and he still performs better than most of the other RBs in this league. Want to know how many players have been in the top 6 in each of the last 3 seasons? Just 1. In fact, he's been in the top 6 for the last 7 seasons and the season right before that he was #7. The guy just plain produces, I will gladly take him this season without even the slightest bit of concern when you look at everyone else and think about the upside/downside discussion.



I see where your coming from, good points...BUT, I can also see alot more risk with LT then I would MJD personally, but that's just me...I'm not drafting a 30 year old RB in the top 5, or top 30, regardless of who it is, maybe I miss out and a guy has a few years left ie Tiki Barber, but those seem to be the exceptions to the rule.



Wondering if MJD will last with an increased role seems well worth the risk, not so sure about the risk on a 30 yr old RB in a RBBC who has had nagging injuries down the stretch the last two years...I want a guy who I can depend on, and it's one thing to wonder if MJD will get hurt but LT has been getting nicked up.


It seems like your basing most of your concerns on his increased workload which could result in him getting hurt, but those things are way too hard to predict...A guy can get hurt getting 150 carries a season if he gets fell on the wrong way, but you can't ignore the huge positive it is for a guy who has been highly productive and will get more touches.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 11:25 pm

Using that same logic though, you can't ignore someone like a Clinton Portis then who will undoubtedly get his 350+ touches each and every season or even LT who will get another 350 touches this season as well. The problem is that increased workload does not always equal better production and we've already seen MJD's numbers per touch drop as he's gotten the ball more in his career even hitting a low of 4.2 ypc which even RBs getting far more carries are able to exceed. You talk about exceptions to the rule and it's funny because I've been saying this whole time that a guy like Turner is the EXCEPTION to the rule, not the norm as well.

SD may have all the best intentions in the world of getting Sproles more involved and they might use him a tad more than before, but when it comes down to it...a healthy LT is going to be far and beyond a better player and they'll use him accordingly. He WILL get those redzone touches and he'll get the brunt of the workload as well. 30 years old isn't some magic number that all of a sudden makes RBs drop off the face of the earth...no RB has been able to do as much, as consistently and for as long as LT has and so it's tough to really compare him with any other back as very few have ever shown this much durability. Nagging injuries are not the same as major injuries even if they have happened for a couple seasons, it just isn't the same thing nor does it carry over to future seasons like an ACL tear would. I think you can expect 300-325 carries and 50-60 receptions for him this year and he won't be dealing with turf toe from the start of the season so we'll likely see closer to his normal 4.4 career ypc average or higher this year. Should that happen we're probably looking at somewhere in the realm of 1800 total yards and once again, double digit TDs (just like he has EVERY season his entire career).
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Apr 22, 2009 2:15 am

mattb47 wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
4. Steven Jackson - Only 2 RBs last season averaged more fantasy points per game than Jackson did despite being on the abysmal St. Louis Rams offense. DeAngelo Williams and Micheal Turner both averaged more FP but S-Jax right there behind them. The Rams will be improved from last season (it doesn't take much) and you can expect them to rely on Jackson a lot for their offensive production next season. He's had some injury issues but he's played in at least 12 games every season for his entire career and he just plain produces when he's on the field.


Hey Matt, how can you have injury concerns with MJD and not with Steven Jackson? MJD hasn't shown yet what he will do under a full-load, but Steven Jackson actually HAS gotten injured handling a full load. And it's pretty well known that the turf in St. Louis is pretty unforgiving.


I have some concerns with Jackson but while he has had some injury issues, he has still carried a heavy load as a RB with success and proven that he can be very productive with a heavier week to week load. He hasn't had any major injuries which are the biggest red flag for me and he's still played a minimum of 12 games each season. Over the past 3 seasons he has averaged 20.9 carries per game and has played 40 games in the past 3 seasons which is 13.3 games per season...I'll take top 3 production for 13 games a season.

The concerns aren't necessarily "injury concerns" with MJD so much as a likely drastic change in role this season and the effect it could have on both his durability and performance over the course of the season. For me personally, the bigger red flags have always been those who are having such a drastic change like this who haven't "proven" they can handle a heavier load like he could be having and those with big injuries (i.e. ACL Tear).

Again...these are my personal rankings that are based largely on what I would actually do in a draft. There are some players I like more than others and some things I value higher than other people would...you're free to disagree but I do think these things through.


I don't necessarily disagree with your rankings, just questioning why you would knock MJD for potential "durability" issues versus Steven Jackson's known injury issues. Upside and risk are built into all of our player rankings, but a question that is difficult to answer is exactly what types of risk the most important and how much risk do you need to take to gamble on upside. Adrian Peterson for instance is surely the consensus #1 overall pick, but I would argue that his "injury" risk factor is actually higher than Tomlinson's (who has only missed one regular season game in his entire career).

I agree with a lot of the points you make, in fact I am willing to sacrifice games played for PPG as I believe ultimately PPG and not year end rankings are what win championships.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby mattb47 » Wed Apr 22, 2009 8:08 pm

Understood...rankings are always a tricky thing when you look at them from person to person because of just how crazy different the things that different people value are in players. I, for instance, value someone who has "been there before" so guys who are like Turner last year and MJD this year I tend to stay away from in general....at least at the point I feel like I'd be reaching for them. Every once in a while I'll see a guy that I know has a ton of potential even though he hasn't "broken out" and I'll be a bit higher on him...DeAngelo Williams is a good example of this for me as I've been high on him for years despite him never living up to his potential until this past season.

Injury issues are tricky as well...I'm normally rather "down" on guys who have had major injury issues such as someone like Frank Gore, but he's surpassed my expectations already for his longevity and it's the point that those knees may no longer be the factor they once were. The smaller injuries such as the nagging turf toe or hamstring/quad issues are much less worrisome to me when I'm considering them for the new season...injuries like this have had more than enough time to run their course and these players are going to be very healthy for the season. These injuries like this can also happen to anyone so it's rather ridiculous to try to avoid someone because of a random occurence like developing turf toe.

I agree about the PPG idea...I probably wont take someone who I think will miss half the season but perform well for those 8 games but if I think a guy is going to play 12 games minimum in a season and can be a top 3 guy for those games then I don't have a problem taking him because the upside is tremendous if he is in fact able to make it through the season. I'd say ADP is the "consensus" number 1 because of that factor I talked about before...he's one of the few guys that can end up being worth MORE than where he's drafted even as the #1 pick. He's got so much potential that you can't say with a straight face that he's reached anywhere near his ceiling and he could explode for monstrous numbers and win it all for you by himself.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby Stelly » Mon Apr 27, 2009 3:45 pm

Does Jax drafting R. Jennings (Liberty) change anyone's opinion? Will this guy be an impact player for the Jag's? Where does he fit in their offense?
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby iamgregg » Mon Apr 27, 2009 4:27 pm

Jennings is going to be the guy talked about in this thread, who's there to take the load off MJD, but shouldn't impose too much as to hurt his production.
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Re: MJD inked for 4 years/32+ mil

Postby TheDiplomats » Mon Apr 27, 2009 4:48 pm

Stelly wrote:Does Jax drafting R. Jennings (Liberty) change anyone's opinion? Will this guy be an impact player for the Jag's? Where does he fit in their offense?

All Jennings needs to do is beat out Chauncey Washington to play backup to MJD. The guy looked good at the senior bowl and I think he will take the #2 spot and get a few carries a game to spell MJD every now and then. If Jennings end up being very good or MJD just wears down too much, you could see something similar to the Stewart and DWill combo in Carolina. Jennings has to prove himself first though. He could just as easily be a bust and get cut in training camp. He is definitely worth taking a flyer on, although I am not sure I would take him in the first round of rookie drafts.
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