Clinton Portis

[Minnesota Guy]

Now Now guys. I know its harmless banter, but lets not put down each others advice. Thats what makes fantasy so fun is that everyone has their own opinion. If everyone liked the same players and thought the same way it wouldn't be fun.

[aaawall91]

He may not have missed any games, but there was a definite decline in output last year- after 5 straight games of 120+ yards, he had more than 80 yards only once during the final 8 games. That decline was due largely to injury- read the Portis injury thread for the complete rundown.

Had more than 80 yards only once during the Final 8?

I guess receiving yards don't count in your league? Because he only had less than 80 combined yards 3 times all season...

and in each of those 3 games he was given 15 touches or less.

footballguys.com (I trust alot) said:

Week 11 - Despite not practicing and being expected to miss the game, Portis showed no signs of any injury. He was running with speed and in power running formations. The sweeps were working very well early in the game. Many of his most successful runs were to the left side of his line.
Week 13 - Portis was bottled up for most of the day and was on and off of the field as he aggravated an injury during the game. He caught his lone target for a 15 yard gain and averaged a measly two yards on 11 rushes.
Week 14 - RB Clinton Portis did not play for most of the second half and RB Ladell Betts took over as the primary ball carrier. Portis ran hard when he was active but the stifling Ravens defense kept in check. Portis also had one fumble but the call could have gone either way. The Redskins challenged that it was a fumble but the referees did not overturn it.

It wasn't said during the game why he stopped carrying the ball. He was seen standing on the sidelines in the fourth quarter.

They know what they are talking about and it doesn't seem like there were major injury concerns in his THREE games of less than 80 yards.

[Kareighuis]

He may not have missed any games, but there was a definite decline in output last year- after 5 straight games of 120+ yards, he had more than 80 yards only once during the final 8 games. That decline was due largely to injury- read the Portis injury thread for the complete rundown.

Had more than 80 yards only once during the Final 8?

I guess receiving yards don't count in your league? Because he only had less than 80 combined yards 3 times all season...

True, I did discount the receiving yards. So, let's look at the relevant stats, in their entirety-
wk1@NYG- 84yru, 3.7avg, 0TD, 0yre, 0TD; 84tot, 0TD 8FFP
wk2 vNO- 96yru, 4.6avg, 2TD, 3yre, 0TD; 99tot, 2TD 21FFP
wk3 vAri- 68yru, 3.2avg, 1TD, 19yre, 0TD; 87tot, 1TD 13FFP
wk4 @Dal- 121yru, 5.8avg, 0TD, 14yre, 0TD; 135tot, 0TD 13FFP
wk5 @Phi- 145yru, 5.0avg, 1TD, 13yre, 0TD; 158tot, 1TD 21FFP
wk6 vStL- 129yru, 6.1avg, 2TD, 14yre, 0TD; 143tot, 2TD 25FFP
wk7 vCle- 175yru, 6.5avg, 1TD, 8yre, 0TD; 183tot, 1TD 21FFP (one fumble)
wk8 @Det- 126yru, 5.3avg, 0TD, 6yre, 0TD; 132tot, 0TD 12FFP
wk9 vPit- 51yru, 3.9avg, 0TD, 73yre, 0TD; 124tot, 0TD 12FFP
BYE
wk11 vDal- 68yru, 4.5avg, 0TD, 6yre, 0TD; 74tot, 0TD 6FFP
wk12 @Sea- 143yru, 4.9avg, 0TD, 16yre, 0TD; 159tot, 0TD 15FFP
wk13 vNYG- 22yru, 2.0avg, 0TD, 15yre, 0TD; 37tot, 0TD 3FFP
wk14 @Bal- 32yru, 2.9avg, 0TD, 14yre, 0TD; 46tot, 0TD 2FFP (one fumble)
wk15 @Cin- 77yru, 3.1avg, 0TD, 6yre, 0TD; 83tot, 0TD 7FFP
wk16 vPhi- 70yru, 3.2avg, 1TD, 11yre, 0TD; 81tot, 1TD 14FFP
wk17 @SF- 80yru, 2.8avg, 1TD, 0yre, 0TD; 80tot, 1TD 12FFP (one fumble)

When analysts first saw the schedule, they saw 3 divisional road games in the first five sandwiched around home games against potent offenses in NO and ARI. Many homers were concerned about this, but the players got revved up for the challenge- you could here it in the interviews. During the run, the respect they forced opposing D's to give the passing game helped open up the running game. Santana blew up in the early part of the season- the first four games, he got either 100+ yards receiving or a TD, sometimes both. The passing game freed up Portis for his crazy wk4-9 run. In wk5, Philly kept Santana catchless. From then on, only 3 of the final 11 games did he have either a TD or 100+yrec. Defenses slowly shut down the passing game and the Skins didn't adjust, even during the bye. Hence, the repeated questions about play-calling by the QB-coach-turned-HC. Washington came out of the bye lifeless, all their momentum sucked out, and injuries to Portis and the o-line killed the power sweeps mentioned in your "footballguys.com" quote.

Another way to look at all this- Fantasy Football Points (FFP, non PPR)-
A) 3 games of 21 FFP or more, all in a 5 week stretch at the beginning of the season;
B) a 6 game stretch just before the bye where be got no less than 13 FFP; that threshold was broken only twice during the latter half of the season;
C) from week 2 to week 7 (inclusive), he averaged 19 FFP; from week 11 to week 16 (inclusive), he averaged 7.83 FFP;
D) from week 1 to week 9 (inclusive) he had only one game of single-digit FFP, a 9-game stretch, an 11% failure rate; from week 11 to week 17 (inclusive, even the meaningless wk17 game), he had 4 games of single-digit FFPs, or a 57% failure rate;
E) during that great wk4-9 stretch, Portis averaged 5.43 yards/carry. During the week 11-17 season-ending stretch after the bye, he averaged merely 3.34 yards/carry- a horrendous drop of over 2 yards per.

Had more than 80 yards only once during the Final 8?

I guess receiving yards don't count in your league? Because he only had less than 80 combined yards 3 times all season...
and in each of those 3 games he was given 15 touches or less.

So I set the bar low and you point out that he just barely cleared it? What I'm trying to show is the very clear split. If I include the receiving yardage (Portis has never been known as a receiving option) he got more than 83 total yards only once from week 11 to week 17. During that stretch, he had 83 combined yards week 15, 80 combined yards wk16, and 81 combined wk17.
Is it possible he was limited to 15 touches or less due to his injuries? Portis is not LenDale- he's a team-guy- he's offered to take up punting if it would help the team. Whatever it takes. A more reasonable change he's done- Portis is not a power back, but he's rebuilt his body into one a power back would envy for the former-Gibbs offense. He's lost a sizable amount of his speed and the pounding is grinding him down. Nowadays, people would wonder whether he's a speed component to a thunder/lightning tandem. Even now, some say Ladell Betts should be made the power, Portis power down and be the lightning.

[aaawall91]

If you consider a consistent yardage total of 80 yards setting the bar low than I pray you draft AP with every draft you have.

If you can find a back who consistently breaks 80 yards (doesn't do it 3 times in a season...and one of those games you could start another back based on the signs pointing to him not playing) I am happy. He ended up 4th on the rushing list last season. I don't think you set the bar low...more like way high...

[Kareighuis]

If you consider a consistent yardage total of 80 yards setting the bar low than I pray you draft AP with every draft you have.

I don't quite follow you here.

If you can find a back who consistently breaks 80 yards (doesn't do it 3 times in a season...and one of those games you could start another back based on the signs pointing to him not playing) I am happy. He ended up 4th on the rushing list last season. I don't think you set the bar low...more like way high...

The consistency is nice, more so from a highly-drafted player. My concern?- people treated him like a cornerstone in redrafts, based on trades done and that I engaged in, but that first half-run inflated peoples' expectations to an ultimately-unrealized degree.
I won't belabor the point, but I think he ended up 4th in rushing because of that wk4-9 streak. During or immediately after it (perhaps during the bye) would have been the perfect sell-high point.

[LabelMan]

Plus when you own Portis those goofy press conferences mean even more!

[LS2throwed]

I'm not spending a top 5 pick on a guy if I have questions on if he'll be available in the playoffs, that's probably why I missed the boat on Westbrook the past two seasons...I love Portis, but I'm not confident that he'll be the same monster in week 13 that he is in week 1...I know he'll gut it out and play, but his workload is of some concern with me too and they don't seem like they want to split carries with him.


Just been the way I've drafted, sometimes I miss out on guys, but Portis is entering that age where durability could start to become a concern, it's not an exact science and nobody knows when a runner will break down or get hurt, but I will admit that I am skeptical of Portis and if he'll be 100% blaring down the stretch and not limping on one knee for a team that has already quit on the coach by week 12.

[mattb47]

I'm not spending a top 5 pick on a guy if I have questions on if he'll be available in the playoffs, that's probably why I missed the boat on Westbrook the past two seasons...I love Portis, but I'm not confident that he'll be the same monster in week 13 that he is in week 1...I know he'll gut it out and play, but his workload is of some concern with me too and they don't seem like they want to split carries with him.


Just been the way I've drafted, sometimes I miss out on guys, but Portis is entering that age where durability could start to become a concern, it's not an exact science and nobody knows when a runner will break down or get hurt, but I will admit that I am skeptical of Portis and if he'll be 100% blaring down the stretch and not limping on one knee for a team that has already quit on the coach by week 12.

Not sure if anyone is saying to take him top 5...but he's still surefire top 10. If that's your deciding factor on who to take in the top 5 then you probably won't want to have much to do with any of the top RBs...that's the kind of position that tends to sustain more injuries and so you could argue that ALL RBs have questions on whether they'll be available in the playoffs.

ADP - Injury history, running style lends him to take harder hits
Turner - Very heavy load last year, RBs tend to struggle the year after a very heavy workload
Forte - Similar to Turner, taller back also makes him more vulnerable
LT - Questions about age, hurt late in season last couple years
SJax - Has had trouble staying fully healthy recently
MJD - First season as full time starter
Westbrook - Consistent entrant in the weekly injury report
Gore - Has had significant knee injury problems in past
Slaton - Smaller back, obvious workload concerns

If security late in the season is what you're looking for in the top 5 then you'll probably be looking at drafting someone like DeAngelo Williams or someone like that who will be in a surefire RBBC...because every back has questions on if they'll be available late in the season to some extent.