If everyone keeps three players, my guess is there will be at least 20 RBs kept. Chance of drafting a RB as good as Forte = 10%.
If everyone keeps 3 players, my guess is there will be maybe a handful of QBs kept.
Chance of drafting a QB than can put up Manning-like numbers == a lot better than finding a RB to draft to put up Forte-like numbers.
RBs that are "3 down" workhorse featured backs are rare. The chance to own 3 of them is too good to pass up.
It's just an opinion. There is no "wrong".
Forte has more value. I know keeping him is conventional wisdom. If it's your first round pick in a redraft, I would take Forte. But on a roster with 2 other 1st round RBs, Manning makes your team better. He is the most dependable option in fantasy. And RBs have a high turnover and lots of depth this year.
He listed the RBs and QBs available. There definitely will be a comparable RB available in Rd 1. Not as highly rated, but comparable. I know some people think LT is done, but if you compare his YPC, yardage, receptions, TDs, etc. to Forte they are not that different. Give me boring old LT and Manning, or Slaton and Manning, or even Moreno and Manning, or Wells and Manning, while you take Forte and Rodgers, and it seems pretty even to me.
If everyone keeps three players, my guess is there will be at least 20 RBs kept. Chance of drafting a RB as good as Forte = 10%.
If everyone keeps 3 players, my guess is there will be maybe a handful of QBs kept.
Chance of drafting a QB than can put up Manning-like numbers == a lot better than finding a RB to draft to put up Forte-like numbers.
RBs that are "3 down" workhorse featured backs are rare. The chance to own 3 of them is too good to pass up.
It's just an opinion. There is no "wrong".
Forte has more value. I know keeping him is conventional wisdom. If it's your first round pick in a redraft, I would take Forte. But on a roster with 2 other 1st round RBs, Manning makes your team better. He is the most dependable option in fantasy. And RBs have a high turnover and lots of depth this year.
He listed the RBs and QBs available. There definitely will be a comparable RB available in Rd 1. Not as highly rated, but comparable. I know some people think LT is done, but if you compare his YPC, yardage, receptions, TDs, etc. to Forte they are not that different. Give me boring old LT and Manning, or Slaton and Manning, or even Moreno and Manning, or Wells and Manning, while you take Forte and Rodgers, and it seems pretty even to me.
Certainly not meant as a personal attack to you Rocker, please don't take it as such. I always welcome a contrarian viewpoint. But what I am saying is that your original logic is flawed.
I agree that Manning is the most dependable option in fantasy FWIW. But there are a multitude of QBs that can put up Manning-like numbers in any given year.
You stated "And RBs have a high turnover and lots of depth this year." Your first point: turnover is exactly why you stock up on RBs -- especially true feature backs. If one of your studs go down, you still have a stud to put in his place. As for "lots of depth", that is a function of more teams going to RBBCs. With 2 and 3 and even 4 RBs making up a team's rushing attack, the pool of RBs has gotten diluted, not deeper. Obviously that means feature RBs are even that much more valuable.
I guess what it really comes down to is: with that first round pick, are you more likely to find a QB that can give you 90% of Manning's numbers, or are you more likely to find a RB that can give you 90% of Forte/SJ/MJD? And keep in mind all the guys that are being kept....
(I would probably look for a WR1 with my first pick BTW but I digress....)
Indibuck wrote:You stated "And RBs have a high turnover and lots of depth this year." Your first point: turnover is exactly why you stock up on RBs -- especially true feature backs.
I am not against stockpiling RBs. I would draft 7 or 8 of them and keeping hitting them. A question on whether to keep Forte is if you draft 5 more RBs are you pretty sure at least one will be good. I think the high turnover on RBs says yes. If you have enough of them, one of them will be good. If you load up on guys like Ward, Moreno and Grant while other people are getting #2 WRs or low end starting QBs, you will find a quality starter and great value. Finding great QBs and WRs late is more of an art and less due diligence - much harder.
Indibuck wrote:You stated "And RBs have a high turnover and lots of depth this year." Your first point: turnover is exactly why you stock up on RBs -- especially true feature backs.
I am not against stockpiling RBs. I would draft 7 or 8 of them and keeping hitting them. A question on whether to keep Forte is if you draft 5 more RBs are you pretty sure at least one will be good. I think the high turnover on RBs says yes. If you have enough of them, one of them will be good. If you load up on guys like Ward, Moreno and Grant while other people are getting #2 WRs or low end starting QBs, you will find a quality starter and great value. Finding great QBs and WRs late is more of an art and less due diligence - much harder.
Sorry Thrifty, can't agree with you on this one. FInding QB's and Wr's are a piece of cake compared to finding the RB gem. I'm not going to pull up exact ADP but I think I am fairly close...Last year, out of the top 12 fantasy qb's, in a standard 12 team league, 3 were virtually undrafted in Penny, Cassell and Warner. Rodgers, McNabb and Rivers were 6th to 8th rounders. Garrard probably 11th to 13th. That is more than 50% of the top 12 QB's you can get in the 6th or later.
Elite Wr's are tougher, that I will give you. I will throw out some top 25 names that were undrafted or 8th round and above last year... Bryant, Moore, Bruce, Mason and Walter. Probably comparable to RB's stats...20% of the top 25 would be surprises with maybe one surprise shocking everyone and cracking top 10.
Garrard was terrible. He wasn't even a matchup play. He was a desperation play.
Pennington never won a fantasy player anything. In his whole career. Unless you had the opposing DST when he was soft arming INTs with the JETs
There were 3 good QB draft picks last year - Rivers, Rodgers and Warner. Last year was a special year for QBs though. The first thing that pops to mind is 05 - Carson Palmer broke out. No one else did. A lot of years there is only one QB who turns the corner, and you're lucky if you get that guy.
Who is going to turn the corner this year? I don't see much value here. Edwards is the stylish pick but I don't see it. I don't see Flacco or Russell becoming great starters, and Ryan is already valued as a top 10 QB.
The RB well never runs dry though. There is always turnover.
ESPN's redraft RB rankings last year
30. Matt Forte 34. DeAngelo Williams 44. Chris Johnson 52. Pierre Thomas 75. Steve Slaton
another thought is that you could always trade 1 of those workhorse backs for a top tier QB after the draft. Probably could take your pick-brees, manning, brady, etc for Forte.
LegendoftheFall wrote:another thought is that you could always trade 1 of those workhorse backs for a top tier QB after the draft. Probably could take your pick-brees, manning, brady, etc for Forte.
i think you have to keep the 3 RBs
If Forte can nab you Peyton + someone like Ronnie Brown, then hey, that's the best of it all.
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