Need to see the roster first, but here is my thinking. If you have a shot at the title then keep Portis. If he can stay healthy then he is a top rb, but he has alot of wear n tear on his body, he came into the league very young and is starting to break down now. So if you are in the rebuilding phase then you have to think how much longer will Portis be a top rb compared to your pick at 1.1, guessing either Wells, Moreno or Crabtree. So I would look at your roster and decide if you want to go for it or blow the whole thing up. Good luck.
If this is fourth and inches I like this trade, I'm somewhat on the fence but due to the fact that I know you have the best roster on paper in the league and adding Portis should very likely put you in the championship again...Portis isn't splitting carries, and him, AD, and Pierre is a great trio to go with your WR's.
Keep in mind though he's 28 when the season start and has taken a pretty large load thus far in his career so ask yourself, if he starts to break down towards the end of the year(when you'll most likely need him) and Moreno and/or Wells are tearing it up would you still be happy with the trade? I agree in your situation it's probably a better idea to take the risk out and get a sure thing and I think Portis should be able to beast for one more year but after that it's completely up in the air.
I'd shop around and see if I could find a guy more in the range of 25 yrs old that I could rely on for 3 or so years minimum at a high level, or I would probably risk it with a rookie(that's just me though), if not, Portis is certainly a good idea and would be well worth it if you win the ring.
Just ask yourself if you'd still be happy with the trade going into 2010 if you don't win the title, so you'd be going with Portis at 29 vs a 2nd year rookie, if you'd be ok with that pull the trigger, if you will question the decision if you don't win it all I'd roll with a rookie...FYI I don't think Moreno will be a bust, but I also don't think he'll help your team as much this year as a Portis would, just m/o, take it with a grain of salt.
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Thanks so far boys... yes, I would be a contender. It is a 2nd year dynasty and I lost (to LS2) in the championships. I am basically look to simply maximize the value of the 1.01. I really don't trust any of the rookies this year. I find this rookie crop similar to 2006 and don't like it but am not really willign to deal the 1.01 for the sake of just dealing the 1.01.
Have 1.01, 1.12 and 2.11 rookie picks
K. Warner QB A. Peterson RB MIN P. Thomas RB NO A. Johnson WR HOU C. Johnson WR DET B. Marshall WR DEN O. Daniels TE HOU R. Bironas K TEN Jets TM NYJ
C. Pennington QB MIA D. Garrard QB JAC M. Bulger QB STL L. White RB TEN J. Lewis RB CLE M. Moore RB PIT K. Jones RB CHI J. Forsett RB SEA J. Hester RB SD D. Henderson WR NO M. Jones WR JAC P. Crayton WR DAL J. Hill WR SF B. Wade WR MIN B. Scaife TE TEN Buccaneers
I wouldn't do it. You're in bad need of young depth- get the RB with 1.01 and WR with 1.12. If you really don't like Wells, Moreno or Brown, then I'd do what LS2 suggested- try to find a younger RB as a trade target.
I would keep the first pick. Portis is on the decline. He gets hurt every year and proved again last year that when he has a heavy workload he breaks down. I fully expect the Skins to use Betts more this year. Keep the #1 pick and get a fresh young Rb, either Moreno or Wells.
Congrats on owning AP!! On the other hand, all your other RB's fail to rise to true RB1 level. The AP/Portis punch (with P. Thomas as relief) puts you in fat city. I'd be inclined to pull the trigger on this one & start scheming on the top rookie pick for next year's crop, which is projected to blow the 2009 draft away.
There is no consensus #1 for a reason IMO, and that's simply because there isn't the level of talent at #1s like ADP, etc. I feel like its a crapshoot with the "consensus" top 2 right, now and don't really like either.
Sometimes youth can be way overrated in dynasty leagues.
You have AP - 3rd year Pierre - 3rd year
Both have long term value and you can't start more than 2 RBs any ways.
Portis you will plug in right away for sure. The kid is consistent and not even than old (28 in September) you will have many draft picks between now and the time you need to replace either Portis or ADP in your lineup to draft young rookie backs.
Rookies are a huge risk so many don't pan out, and even if you draft one who does it may be awhile there are too many ? marks in fantasy football. Rid yourself of some and have AP and Portis as your backs who you know what your getting from them for the next 2 years MINIMUM while you are still in contention (I'm looking at your QB's...).