Who is the #3 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

[The Lung]

Who is the #3 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts? You are voting on who will have the best fantasy football production in the NFL over the next 5 or 6 years with the team on which the player was just drafted, NOT who will have the best year in 2009. Assume standard scoring (1 pt. per 10 yards rushing / receiving, and no PPR) Also please assume that you have a balanced roster and don't have a great specific need for a QB, WR, etc.

Feel free to discuss the pros and cons of these players - this could be helpful for some and generate some good discussion. If you'd like to vote for a player NOT on this list, then please vote "other" and make a post to discuss the player.

Previous polls
1.01 RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, Arizona
1.02 RB Knowshon Moreno, Denver

[smackthefirst]

With Wells and Moreno lined up at 1-2, I've got to go with Crabtree here. The only other option in my mind is DBrown but I'm not ready to pass the torch in Indy yet. Even though Addai is clearly not the answer for the Colt's brass, I don't see them cutting ties with him or having him ride the bench immediately. At best I see a committee between the 2 for at least 2-3 years. In that situation, even if Brown gets the majority of the carries, I don't foresee enough production to jump Crabtree for the third spot.

Now onto Crabtree. He is immediately coming in as the best WR the 49ers have and will immediately start and get plenty of looks. Many will argue about the QB situation, but that will most likely only last for one more year. If none of them step up this year, then I clearly see the 49ers targeting either Bradford or McCoy and they've got the ammo to do it with 2 1st round picks next year. Also, depending on the league settings regarding PPR, Crabtree may be even more valuable as the 49ers will most likely employ a few WR screen type plays to get the ball into Crabtree's hands and let him work for the YAC. The PPR doesn't apply to this poll, but I just wanted to point out that in a PPR, I could even see the argument for Crabtree being higher than 3rd. I also know the history of rookie WR production, but there's always the exceptions. And considering Crabtree's abilities, I think he has a very good chance to be one of those exceptions.

[Kareighuis]

With Wells and Moreno lined up at 1-2, I've got to go with Crabtree here. The only other option in my mind is DBrown but I'm not ready to pass the torch in Indy yet. Even though Addai is clearly not the answer for the Colt's brass, I don't see them cutting ties with him or having him ride the bench immediately. At best I see a committee between the 2 for at least 2-3 years. In that situation, even if Brown gets the majority of the carries, I don't foresee enough production to jump Crabtree for the third spot.

Now onto Crabtree. He is immediately coming in as the best WR the 49ers have and will immediately start and get plenty of looks. Many will argue about the QB situation, but that will most likely only last for one more year. If none of them step up this year, then I clearly see the 49ers targeting either Bradford or McCoy and they've got the ammo to do it with 2 1st round picks next year. Also, depending on the league settings regarding PPR, Crabtree may be even more valuable as the 49ers will most likely employ a few WR screen type plays to get the ball into Crabtree's hands and let him work for the YAC. The PPR doesn't apply to this poll, but I just wanted to point out that in a PPR, I could even see the argument for Crabtree being higher than 3rd. I also know the history of rookie WR production, but there's always the exceptions. And considering Crabtree's abilities, I think he has a very good chance to be one of those exceptions.

I gotta go Brown. Addai's there, but the focus is best FF production over the next 5-6 years. There likely will be a timeshare in the near-term future, but I can't see Bill Polian investing a 1st round pick in someone who won't dominate his position shortly. After 2006, Marvin Harrison was coming off a 1366 yards, 12 TD season to extend his streak of a minimum 1100+ yards and 10+ touchdowns to 8 seasons. Still, the Colts drafted Anthony Gonzalez high. A freak injury and roster cut two years later and Gonzalez is starting, Marvin's looking for a job.
Donald Brown is a perfect piece as Indy's RB- inside/outside running game, receiving ability, willing blocker. With all the RBs that have or will shortly be ending their years of FF usefulness (LT, Thomas Jones, Jamal Lewis, Portis, Westbrook, LenDale White), acquiring one of the young RBs nearly guaranteed to produce immediately and for the length of his career would be a wise move for any team.

I love Crabtree. But, reports of his prima-dona attitude lead to questions about his work ethic. A WR coming from a spread offense will need to put in a lot of work to come up to par. He has decent speed, but nothing spectacular. He's big and competitive- a real redzone threat, but not much of a YAC threat. I see a young Plaxico, at least at the beginning. While that potential for near-weekly TDs is tantalizing, the off-weeks, unleavened by decent yardage totals, could lead to horrendous low points.
And then there's the issue with the QBs. Alex Smith and Shaun Hill hardly strike any fear into D-Coords at all; Damon Huard is a roster spot at this point. So, with the 2 1sts Smack points out, they could move up to get a top QB prospect next year- McCoy, Bradford, et al. But you then suddenly are dealing with a young WR, with questions about his work ethic while dealing with the transition from a college spread offense to the NFL, catching passes from a rookie QB.

I also know the history of rookie WR production, but there's always the exceptions. And considering Crabtree's abilities, I think he has a very good chance to be one of those exceptions.

There certainly are exceptions, the most recent being Calvin Johnson and perhaps Andre Johnson. And, while Crabtree is good young WR, most believe he is not in that category right now, and perhaps not in the tier period- most would say Crabtree isn't an exception.

Crabtree is a talent, but the lag time he's facing will likely stretching into the next 3 years, if not more. Since the question is who will have better FF production the next 5-6 years, not who will have the highest career production, I think Donald Brown deserves to be nominated overwhelmingly- he will produce right away and could well grab the feature RB role in an explosive Indy offense.

[aaawall91]

With all the RBs that have or will shortly be ending their years of FF usefulness (LT, Thomas Jones, Jamal Lewis, Portis, Westbrook, LenDale White),

Where is LenDale White going?

He is entering his fourth season in the NFL...last year he put up almost 800 yards and 15 TDs...I can't image he is going any where...

Portis isn't that old either and has consistently been putting up between 1.2 k and 1.5 k yards a season...

[steelerfan513]

This is rightfully split down the middle between Brown and Crabtree. I went with Brown, but there's a negligible difference between the two IMO.

[deerayfan072]

I have Brown before Moreno, so Brown here

[LS2throwed]

I have Brown as my #1 so I have to go with him here, Indy didn't even need a RB there, and there were some really good DT prospects available but they knew what they were getting in Brown, Indy has a great draft history for 1st rounders to help Peyton anyway, and I don't think Addai is tough enough and is going to fall out of grace with the coaches pretty soon.

[deerayfan072]

I have Brown as my #1 so I have to go with him here, Indy didn't even need a RB there, and there were some really good DT prospects available but they knew what they were getting in Brown, Indy has a great draft history for 1st rounders to help Peyton anyway, and I don't think Addai is tough enough and is going to fall out of grace with the coaches pretty soon.

The Colts made it pretty evident to me that they love brown and he was the guy they wanted in that draft

[A Fleshner Fantasy]

If it were just a poll about who would be best next year, I would have gone with Donald Brown, but I think that physically, Crabtree is an absolute freak, so because of the nature of the poll, it's Michael Crabtree. Regardless of which wins, I'll be voting for the other in the #4 poll.

[mattb47]

I have Brown as my #2 on my sheets after Moreno so I'd go with him here. I like Crabtree a lot too and I don't think there's a monstrous drop or anything like that but I see Brown as being the starting RB in Indy for years and the starting RB in an offense of that caliber is fantasy gold.