Who is the #3 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

[slowride]

I really take issue with all this primadonna talk about crabtree? Where's the evidence? Manginius? I went to Tech while he was playing and NEVER was his attitude in question. You never heard anything negative about him around campus. He was always considered a hard worker and just went about his business.

After Leach said Manginius sandbagged Crabman, Mangini said the following:

"I can tell you I had a good visit with Michael," Mangini said Friday. "I'm really happy he got drafted where he got drafted, and he'll have a great career. And I said that after his visit. Nothing's changed. Nothing changed from that point. Nothing will change two or three months from now." per ESPN

This who pre-madonna thing to me is a media fabrication.

With that said tho....if that had anything to do in the slightest way with him not going to Oakland....then Thank God for Mangini or whoever made this stuff up.

[Kareighuis]

I hate to continue to stay off topic but...

I agree- I'm kinda glad you didn't reply to the full aspects of my post- makes it easier to be brief.

Again, I'm not saying his career is over. I'm saying if he doesn't mend his ways, then it could likely be. I'm willing to bet he won't. Michael Vick, Jerome Bettis, Kerry Collins, Jake Delhomme, Ryan Leaf, Vince Young, Muhsin Muhammad, Jon Kitna, Brett Favre, Chad Pennington and Vinny Testaverde have all shown that no matter how talented one is (or is not), character/personality/intangibles is/are incredibly, perhaps overwhelmingly, important.

I'm not sure what that whole last paragraph is about exactly...You have Micheal Vick, Ryan Leaf, and Brett Farve all in the same sentence...

I was trying to throw together the high-intangible/low-skillset guys (ie, Delhomme, Bettis) with the low-intangible/high-skillset guys (Vick, Leaf) as a compare/contrast of what intangibles can do to a guy's career.. I'll leave to you where some of those guys should be categorized. Probably shoulda thrown Laurence Phillips in for good measure.

But my point is Portis is young to put in to perspective only 3 years older than Jets rookie back Shonn Greene. I say he has at least 3 more seasons like his previous as the must unrecognized high profile running back who is a consistent producer.

Yes, but he joined the league very early- he was a 21-year-old rookie. He was 20 shortly before the 2002 season started. Again, he's been through some battles.
Regardless, no, I don't think he'll fall off the face of the Earth this season, or likely next. But, it wouldn't surprise me for him to turn into an LJ-like RB, valued for: A) his supposed youth, B) solid hold on a starting job in a league of platoons and C) occasional (eventually once-a-year) big games. Of these, only B warrants merit. If these three points will make you a happy owner in the coming years, then so be it.

Now, on-topic-

I've heard the arguments that the Colts have had great success with their #1 picks (and agree they've been good), but doesn't that also run counter to the argument in a way? I mean, either Addai is going to follow in the footsteps of their great picks and be good enough to at least limit Brown, or they made a mistake with Addai and he's not as good as they thought, which means it's possible the same thing happened with Brown.

I do like Brown, but just wanted to point that out.

That's a very, very, very, very good point. The only immediate (unreferenced, unsubstantiated) counter that comes to mind is that they drafted that year to fill a desperate need, considering how close they thought Edge was. Addai may not have been injury-prone in college or he may have and they thought he would "get over" it, a la AP. Right now, that's the best counter-arguments I can come up with.

I really take issue with all this primadonna talk about crabtree? Where's the evidence? Manginius?
After Leach said Manginius sandbagged Crabman, Mangini said the following:
"I can tell you I had a good visit with Michael," Mangini said Friday. "I'm really happy he got drafted where he got drafted, and he'll have a great career. And I said that after his visit. Nothing's changed. Nothing changed from that point. Nothing will change two or three months from now." per ESPN
This who pre-madonna thing to me is a media fabrication.

I'd heard it from the Cleveland Plain Dealer after Crabtree visited. I would have discounted it and the other similar talk I read/heard shortly before the draft (StLouis Today- "There are questions about Crabtree’s foot and attitude. His diva attitude during pre-draft visits turned off the Rams and the Browns"), but repeated comments by PFW, whether their 9 April "The Way We Hear It" segment ("his ego is abnormally large...his work ethic has been described as 'marginal at best,'...and his intelligence and ability to handle success remain major question marks.") or their draft guide ("Too flashy and immature, and his motivation could change with a big payday. Expects prima donna treatment and already thinks he has arrived.") give me pause. Certainly the comparison to Michael Clayton doesn't sound good.

[Free Bagel]

or they made a mistake with Addai and he's not as good as they thought, which means it's possible the same thing happened with Brown.

I do like Brown, but just wanted to point that out.

Sure, it's possible. It was always possible. This is fantasy football, nobody knows what is going to happen. So much random stuff happens for absolutely no visible reason. The point is playing the percentages, and percentage-wise if the Bill Polian picks someone in the first round there is a very high chance that the player is going to work out well. Far higher than with any other team or GM out there.

[Humpback]

or they made a mistake with Addai and he's not as good as they thought, which means it's possible the same thing happened with Brown.

I do like Brown, but just wanted to point that out.

Sure, it's possible. It was always possible. This is fantasy football, nobody knows what is going to happen. So much random stuff happens for absolutely no visible reason. The point is playing the percentages, and percentage-wise if the Bill Polian picks someone in the first round there is a very high chance that the player is going to work out well. Far higher than with any other team or GM out there.

Again, I'm not saying either Addai or Brown are great or busts, I'm just saying that it doesn't really make sense to me to use the argument that the Colts have had such great success with their #1 picks to justify taking Brown high. Sure, Addai could be in the small percentage of "misses" for the Colts, but it's also possible that he isn't and Brown is. The most likely scenario, using their high percentage of success, is that both will be good, which would limit Brown's FF value.

I guess I'm saying if you don't think Addai is great and you really like Brown, by all means grab him, but I don't think it makes sense to do it based on drafting track records. There are plenty of other reasons to draft him, I just can't use that one when it would actually run counter to the argument if Addai doesn't pan out.

[Kensat30]

or they made a mistake with Addai and he's not as good as they thought, which means it's possible the same thing happened with Brown.

I do like Brown, but just wanted to point that out.

Sure, it's possible. It was always possible. This is fantasy football, nobody knows what is going to happen. So much random stuff happens for absolutely no visible reason. The point is playing the percentages, and percentage-wise if the Bill Polian picks someone in the first round there is a very high chance that the player is going to work out well. Far higher than with any other team or GM out there.

Bill Polian is not infallible and I think Donald Brown is clear evidence of that. No one in today's NFL wants to draft two RBs in the first round within a couple of years of each other (I may be wrong here). The questions we need to read into the Donald Brown draft pick are as follows: Is Addai done? And is Donald Brown talented enough to become featured even if Addai isn't? This could quite easily turn into a Carolina type situation where these two RBs form a powerful RBBC for at least the next couple of years. And in that case, who is to say that Brown would become the fantasy producer instead of Addai? Granted the Carolina situation is different in several ways, but I got sucked into that trap last year writing off Denangelo prematurely. And that guy knocked me out of the playoffs in the majority of my leagues when I could have easily drafted him myself if I had an ounce of foresight on the guy.

Addai was statistically very good in 2007 and was injured throughout most of 2008. I realize the Colts are a team built to win every year with Peyton Manning in the huddle, and they need solid RB production to compete, but Dominic Rhodes came in off the street and was playing very well for them while Addai was out last year. I don't think they NEEDED a RB in the first this year, but that also doesn't necessarily mean that they drafted Donald Brown to be the franchise or even the starter. I think Brown remains a risky RB to group in with guys like Wells and Moreno who almost assuredly are going to be given the starting reigns early in their career. For a RB, success cannot be attained without opportunity no matter how talented you are.

[Free Bagel]

or they made a mistake with Addai and he's not as good as they thought, which means it's possible the same thing happened with Brown.

I do like Brown, but just wanted to point that out.

Sure, it's possible. It was always possible. This is fantasy football, nobody knows what is going to happen. So much random stuff happens for absolutely no visible reason. The point is playing the percentages, and percentage-wise if the Bill Polian picks someone in the first round there is a very high chance that the player is going to work out well. Far higher than with any other team or GM out there.

Again, I'm not saying either Addai or Brown are great or busts, I'm just saying that it doesn't really make sense to me to use the argument that the Colts have had such great success with their #1 picks to justify taking Brown high. Sure, Addai could be in the small percentage of "misses" for the Colts, but it's also possible that he isn't and Brown is. The most likely scenario, using their high percentage of success, is that both will be good, which would limit Brown's FF value.

I guess I'm saying if you don't think Addai is great and you really like Brown, by all means grab him, but I don't think it makes sense to do it based on drafting track records. There are plenty of other reasons to draft him, I just can't use that one when it would actually run counter to the argument if Addai doesn't pan out.

I guess the difference we're having here is that I think the jury is out on Addai. He didn't work out, and I don't think the Colts would have used another 1st rounder on a RB if they didn't feel the same way.

So Addai is one out of ten that didn't work out. That still leaves Brown with pretty good odds.

[The Lung]

This poll runs until Thu May 07, 2009 @ 12:14 pm, and it's still a close contest between Donald Brown and Crabtree...if you haven't already done so, please get your vote in!

[A Fleshner Fantasy]

This poll runs until Thu May 07, 2009 @ 12:14 pm, and it's still a close contest between Donald Brown and Crabtree...if you haven't already done so, please get your vote in!

For future polls, should we allow for the changing of votes in case someone wants to change their vote to either Crabtree or Brown from someone else who now clearly has no shot at winning?

[LS2throwed]

or they made a mistake with Addai and he's not as good as they thought, which means it's possible the same thing happened with Brown.

I do like Brown, but just wanted to point that out.

Sure, it's possible. It was always possible. This is fantasy football, nobody knows what is going to happen. So much random stuff happens for absolutely no visible reason. The point is playing the percentages, and percentage-wise if the Bill Polian picks someone in the first round there is a very high chance that the player is going to work out well. Far higher than with any other team or GM out there.

Exactly.

That's probably the best way to put it, now for me I valued Brown pretty highly before the draft, but you can't ignore Polian's track record in developing 1st rounders, and ANY WR or RB that goes on Peyton Manning's team is going to get some sort of a boost anyway.

[Humpback]

or they made a mistake with Addai and he's not as good as they thought, which means it's possible the same thing happened with Brown.

I do like Brown, but just wanted to point that out.

Sure, it's possible. It was always possible. This is fantasy football, nobody knows what is going to happen. So much random stuff happens for absolutely no visible reason. The point is playing the percentages, and percentage-wise if the Bill Polian picks someone in the first round there is a very high chance that the player is going to work out well. Far higher than with any other team or GM out there.

Exactly.

That's probably the best way to put it, now for me I valued Brown pretty highly before the draft, but you can't ignore Polian's track record in developing 1st rounders, and ANY WR or RB that goes on Peyton Manning's team is going to get some sort of a boost anyway.

Did you know see my other posts? I'm not saying Brown shouldn't be the #3 pick here, he obviously is good and has value, but using Polian's track record as a positive really doesn't make sense to me here- it's hard to argue that Polian's been so successful in the past, but then in the same breath say he failed with Addai. If he failed with Addai, then he could just as easily have failed with Brown (that would basically put him 50/50 with RBs- Edge and Addai). If he didn't fail with Addai, then Brown can't be [i]that[i] valuable because that would mean Addai is very good.